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End the debate on which team should go into the college football season ranked second behind defending national champion Ohio State.
There is no such dispute for the only sports book that’s already posted lines on the games. TCU comes in as a clear No. 2 at the Golden Nugget.
And the Horned Frogs, which finished last season 12-1 straight-up and 11-2 against the spread, aren’t as far behind the Buckeyes as perceived, according to Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller.
“One of my bookmakers here, he thought the Buckeyes should be a 14-point favorite on a neutral field,” Miller said of a hypothetical Ohio State vs. TCU matchup. “I thought that was crazy. I think it would be a 3-point game. I love this team.”
These are the types of discussions that will rage in sports books across the valley for the next two months before the Sept. 3 kickoff to the season. Miller and his crew — headed by fellow oddsmaker Aaron Kessler and The Gold Sheet editor Bruce Marshall — added a valuable element to the discourse last Friday with the release of the Golden Nugget’s 2015 Game of the Year lines.
The point spreads on the 166 games as part of the ninth annual late-June event have settled after the initial surge of action to reveal that sharp bettors are in agreement with Miller.
In the eight lined TCU contests, the Horned Frogs are an average favorite of minus-14.25. That’s a narrow second to the Buckeyes, which are an average 14.8-point favorite after action flooded in against them in all four of their games with point spreads.
“They’re the two best teams in the nation,” Miller said. “And they’re going to be up there all season.”
A locker room full of disclaimers applies to the aforementioned numbers. The largest of which is the imbalanced nature of schedules for teams from different conferences.
Ohio State’s Big Ten slate projects as far weaker than TCU’s path through the Big 12, so the Buckeyes’ spreads should finish much higher in total by the end of the year. But that doesn’t change the fact that the professional bettors who fired limit-sized wagers of $1,100 a pop into Golden Nugget’s lines found oddsmakers too bullish on Ohio State.
It’s reminiscent of last year when Florida State came into the season as champions and laid a big price in every game. The Seminoles plummeted to where they went 3-11 against the spread, despite a 13-1 straight-up record, to the delight of the scores of pro bettors who wagered against them beginning in the summer.
“That’s a great comparison,” Miller said. “Last year, we were so high on Florida State and everyone took the big double-digits. That was one of the teams we didn’t do so good with. But we’re very high on Ohio State, and don’t expect the same thing. It’s just our opinion, and the numbers reflect that.”
TCU saw three lines move against it too, including a Nov. 21 road trip to Oklahoma. TCU opened as a 5-point favorite before decreasing to minus-3.5 in short order.
But Golden Nugget appears to have nailed the number in the Horned Frogs’ most anticipated matchup, which comes the next week when they host Baylor. The betting line of TCU minus-6 was unwavering in the rematch of a game that saw it blow a 21-point lead in 11 minutes last year in a 61-58 loss.
Miller ranks Baylor as the fourth-best team in the nation, making its trip to TCU the only meeting between teams in the top five of his preseason power ratings.
“That’s my game of the year,” Miller said. “But I think you have to lean TCU with all the great players they have coming back and the Heisman front-runner.”
Nevada Gaming Commission rules prevent Nevada sports books from posting odds on the Heisman, but TCU quarterback Treyvone Boykin — who accounted for 4,608 yards and 41 touchdowns last year — is the favorite offshore. Ohio State boasts four of the next 15 choices with running back Ezekiel Elliott joining his three prospective quarterbacks.
Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett acknowledges fans as he is driven from the field after an injury in the fourth quarter Saturday, Nov. 29, 2014, in Columbus, Ohio. Ohio State beat Michigan 42-28.
Sophomore J.T. Barrett, who went 11-1 as a starter before getting injured last year, is seen as the favorite to win the job according to the offshore odds. But neither junior Cardale Jones, who led the team to the national championship with three at the end of the season, nor senior Braxton Miller, who was the Heisman front-runner a year ago before an injury, are considered out of the competition.
“Cardale Jones proved it to me,” Tony Miller argued. “He stepped up as a third-stringer and showed he’s the real deal. I think you stick with who got you there. But when your biggest problem is a three-headed monster at quarterback and who’s going to start? Their schedule is really, really soft, and I think they go undefeated.”
Alabama sits at No. 3 and Oregon rests at No. 5 in Miller’s ratings. USC falls just outside of the top five, making its Nov. 21 road game at Oregon loom as large as Baylor vs. TCU.
Golden Nugget posted the Ducks as 6.5-point favorites, and took no bets on either side. Auburn resides in the same class as USC, and bettors like their chances in the always-anticipated Iron Bowl matchup against Alabama scheduled for Nov. 28 this season.
The Tigers are 2.5-point home underdogs after opening at plus-3.5. It may not sound like a significant shift, but Miller hasn’t needed to swing any of the spreads too drastically to this point.
“We only had two games that moved five points,” Miller reported. “In past years, we’ve had games that have moved like 13 points. I don’t think we had as many soft numbers this year.”
The Golden Nugget exposes itself to potentially major losses by going alone and setting the market price on so many games every summer, but has profited in six of the Game of the Year’s previous eight iterations. The book depends on teams it evaluates higher than the market to come through.
Ohio State and TCU are the unabashed leaders of that group this year.
“The one that really sticks out the most so far is Ohio State,” Miller said. “The sharps didn’t agree with us on that. They thought our numbers were too high.”
Check out the Golden Nugget's Game of the Years lines below. Note that these are the opening point spreads, not the updated numbers.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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