Vegas pick’em: NFL week 8 winners against the spread

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New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount (29) is upended by Pittsburgh Steelers inside linebacker Vince Williams (98) during the first half of an NFL football game in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Oct. 23, 2016. (AP Photo/Jared Wickerham)

Thu, Oct 27, 2016 (2 a.m.)

Week 8: Eagles at Cowboys

Which side would you take in Eagles at Cowboys? (Poll consensus year to date: 4-3)
Cowboys -4.5 — 57.5%
Eagles +4.5 — 42.5%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Betting the NFL’s week 8 will be a glorified exercise in picking outright winners.

The point spreads aren’t likely to play much of a role at the midway point of the season because they’re so diminished. The average week 8 betting line is minus-3.5, two points lower than the overall NFL mean.

Only one team is laying more six points and has better than a 70 percent chance of victory according to the current odds. And that’s the Super Bowl favorite New England Patriots, which give the Bills seven points in Buffalo.

That’s additionally the lone game with an early kickoff Sunday featuring a favorite of more than a field goal.

The tight numbers are largely a result of random scheduling, but somewhat speak to a larger truth of a more compact league so far this season. There aren’t any historically great or extraordinarily poor teams stretching the limits of bookmakers’ power ratings.

Talking Points is hoping the NFL’s most competitive week is a cure to crippling incompetence when it comes to winning bets. The blog had yet another disastrous showing in week 7, going 5-10 against the spread to make the year to date record picking every game 45-61-1.

Coming off of two profitable years in a row, some regression could have been expected. But this is inexcusable, and it’s time to break out of it.

Check below for picks on all of the week 8 games, separated as always into three separate confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (7-17-1)

Philadelphia Eagles plus-5 at Dallas Cowboys Cowboys have worked their way towards the top of the NFC with one of the NFL’s best offenses; Eagles have done the same with one of the NFL’s best defenses. The latter seems more dependable going forward, so let’s keep riding with Philadelphia.

Indianapolis Colts plus-3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Take away the epic fourth-quarter and overtime collapse in Houston, and Indianapolis has played well in every quarter over the last two weeks. Andrew Luck is 8-1 against the spread, 7-2 straight-up for his career as a home underdog.

Atlanta Falcons minus-3 vs. Green Bay Packers Point spread is being kept compressed by Green Bay’s reputation alone, and not anything it’s done this season. Atlanta has played better than Green Bay by any measure, which means they should lay more than a field goal at home.

Cleveland Browns plus-4 vs. New York Jets Not a believer in the spited Ryan Fitzpatrick wrecking the rest of the NFL on his revenge tour. Facing the team second-to-last in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings at home, this looks like the last-place Browns’ most likely spot for a win so they’re likely to expend maximum effort.

Leans (19-20)

Denver Broncos minus-5 vs. San Diego Chargers The time to buy low on the Chargers appears to have passed with the majority of action on them here making the spread in this matchup only two points higher than it was in San Diego two weeks ago. The Chargers, which have covered in three straight, deserved some adjustment for beating the Broncos 21-13 in the first meeting but not this large of one.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-3.5 at Tennessee Titans The Jaguars’ offense has hindered the team’s development, but rookies Jalen Ramsey and Dante Fowler have played as well as advertised to make their defense a real asset. The Titans’ offense hasn’t even fared well against teams with mediocre defenses like the Raiders and Browns.

Washington Redskins plus-3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals in London This season’s final game at Wembley Stadium features two high-flying offenses — both the Bengals and Redskins are in the top five in yards per play — and two fading defenses — both teams are in the bottom 10 of opponent yards per play. The teams are so similar that taking the points becomes the play on either side.

Houston Texans minus-2.5 vs. Detroit Lions Starting to feel uneasy over all the love thrown in the Lions’ direction after three straight wins that came by a total of seven points. Their defense is still the worst in the NFL by DVOA.

Carolina Panthers minus-2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals Carolina’s issues might be more glaring and numerous, but Arizona has plenty of its own problems. The Cardinals haven’t shown enough to have the line in a rematch of NFC Championship game that they lost 49-15 moving in their direction.

Guesses (19-24)

Seattle Seahawks minus-3 at New Orleans Saints There’s no treatment better for the stumbling Seattle offense than a date at New Orleans, which is giving up 6.1 yards per play to opponents. On the other hand, New Orleans won’t find it as easy to light up the scoreboard against a Seattle defense surrendering 4.8 yards per play.

Buffalo Bills plus-7 vs. New England Patriots Don’t count out Rex Ryan, who’s 9-6-1 against the spread lifetime versus Bill Belichick. Overblown concerns regarding Bills’ injuries have inflated this spread a couple points too high for a team that’s second in the AFC in point differential.

Oakland Raiders plus-1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers It’s no longer necessary to deflate the Raiders when they’re playing on the East coast. Not only have they won and covered five straight in the time zone, but they stayed in Florida after beating Jacksonville last week.

Chicago Bears plus-6 at Minnesota Vikings Given that it’s in primetime and features the NFL’s most profitable team to gamble on over the last two years in the Vikings, this might be one of the most lopsided bet games of the season. Would rather line up with the side the sports books need than the side the public needs in a game where the spread looks accurate.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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