College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 4

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Louisville’s Lamar Jackson celebrates a touchdown against Florida State, Saturday, Sept. 17, 2016, in Louisville Ky. Louisville won 63-20.

Sat, Sep 24, 2016 (2 a.m.)

Sports betting boards might go the way of the new Samsung phones and spontaneously combust if Louisville keeps at its current pace.

Louisville is the hottest topic in college football after scorching Florida State 63-20 last week. Nowhere illustrates the effect of handing the Seminoles their worst conference loss of all-time better than local sports books, where the Cardinals are on a historic rise.

At this time last year, Louisville was 999-to-1 to win the national championship at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook after losing its first three games of the season. The probability of the Cardinals winning the first championship in school history has only improved by nearly 200 times since then.

They’re 5-to-1 at the Superbook this week, trailing only Alabama at 7-to-2 and Ohio State at 4-to-1. It would be easy to write it all off as an overreaction if not for the nearly unprecedented level of production the Cardinals have achieved behind quarterback Lamar Jackson, who’s now the Heisman favorite at 2-to-1 odds.

They’ve covered their first three games of the year by an average of 26 points. Jackson has scored 18 touchdowns and the offense nearly averages a first down, gaining a national-best 9.3 yards per play.

When Jackson throws or runs, Louisville has tallied 10.5 yards per play. He’ll take on his closest comparison, Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, next week in what’s suddenly looking like perhaps the college football regular season’s game of the year.

In the meantime, Louisville’s odds blaze above the rest again this week. The Cardinals are the biggest road favorite on the board, laying 27 points at Marshall.

It’s not one of the 10 biggest games of the week, and therefore not included in the below college football by the odds preview. But there’s plenty of other spots for the blog to try and maintain its own hot start to the season.

After going 8-6-1 last week, the blog sits at 27-15-2 against the spread on college football for the year. Check below for Week 4 of college football by the odds. Plays are labeled with three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

    • Georgia quarterback Jacob Eason throws during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Missouri Saturday, Sept. 17, 2016, in Columbia, Mo.

      Georgia plus-7.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 62; 9 a.m. on ESPN

      Ole Miss may have blown a pair of 21-point leads in its first two Football Bowl Subdivision games, but at least the Rebels built them in the first place.

      The Bulldogs hasn’t looked capable of that through three weeks. Take away the win-loss records, or at least factor in for the opponents, and the disappointment of Ole Miss so far this season pales in comparison to the troubles of Georgia.

      The Bulldogs did manage to cover minus-3.5 in their season-opening win 33-24 win against North Carolina but only in the final five minutes. Since then, they’ve lost to the point spread by 56 points — edging Missouri 28-27 as 7-point favorites last week after escaping Nichols State 26-24 as 52-point favorites the week before.

      Ole Miss covered plus-10 in last week’s 48-43 collapse hosting Alabama, and only barely missed beating plus-6 in a similar 45-34 meltdown against Florida State in Week 1. The Rebels’ pass defense failed them during the Seminoles’ comeback, and an aerial attack looks like Georgia’s best strength.

      While the running game featuring Nick Chubb and Sony Michel has surprisingly sputtered, top-recruit freshman quarterback Jacob Eason has already thrown five touchdowns with an average of 7.4 yards per pass attempt.

      Guess: Georgia plus-7.5

    • South Florida's Rodney Adams runs into the end zone for a touchdown in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game against Syracuse in Syracuse, N.Y., Saturday, Sept. 17, 2016.

      Florida State minus-6 at South Florida, over/under: 61; 9 a.m. on ABC

      When it comes to Florida State, the betting market is in a forgiving mood.

      The Seminoles burned hordes of bettors’ bankrolls in their 63-20 pasting at Louisville last week, as 84 percent of the money at William Hill sports books was on them laying two points. Early reports indicate about the same split coming in on Florida State this week as it travels to Tampa to take on a dangerous in-state opponent.

      And yet the spread has trimmed from minus-7 at a few sports books, indicating the larger bets are on South Florida. The Bulls have been one of the best teams in the nation to bet on dating back to last year, having gone 12-3-1 against the spread including a cover of plus-28.5 in a 34-14 loss at Florida State.

      Their same offensive core of quarterback Quinton Flowers, running back Marlon Mack and receiver Rodney Adams is back, and helped them overcome an early 17-0 deficit against Syracuse last week. South Florida ended up winning 45-20 as 12.5-point favorites, making it a perfect 3-0 against the spread this year.

      It’s gained 1.5 more yards per play than Florida State this year, and given up 2.1 yards play fewer on defense. But the Seminoles have won seven straight off a loss, including going 6-1 against the spread.

      Guess: Over 61 points

    • Wisconsin quarterback Alex Hornibrook throws during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Georgia State Saturday, Sept. 17, 2016, in Madison, Wis. Wisconsin won 23-17.

      Wisconsin plus-6 at Michigan State, over/under: 42.5; 9 a.m. on Big Ten Network

      This was the final game to post to most betting boards with uncertainties piling up on the Badgers’ side.

      There’s still no word on whether lead running back Corey Clement, or his sidekick Taiwan Deal for that matter, will play for Wisconsin, but coach Paul Chryst has decided on a quarterback. Redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook will start for the first time, making senior Bart Houston the rare quarterback to get benched after a 3-0 straight-up start including an outright upset as a double-digit underdog against LSU in Week 1.

      Hornibrook orchestrated the Badgers’ comeback victory over Georgia State late in the fourth quarter last week, completing eight of 12 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown in the 23-17 win as 35.5-point favorites. Michigan State needs to change significantly less after backing up its considerable support in sports books with a 36-28 victory over Notre Dame as 7.5-point underdogs.

      The Spartans also have an injury report that’s one-tenth the size of the Badgers’, and have covered four straight in the series.

      Lean: Wisconsin plus-6

    • Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock, left, throws a pass as he is hit by Florida linebacker Jarrad Davis, right, during the first half of the Citrus Bowl NCAA college football game, Friday, Jan. 1, 2016, in Orlando, Fla.

      Florida plus-6.5 at Tennessee, over/under: 43.5; 12:30 p.m. on CBS

      Florida will play without its starting quarterback Saturday yet still gets five less points on the spread than it was in this game a month ago.

      That’s a testament to both how stout the Gators have started the season, and how shaky the Volunteers have begun. Florida’s defense — behind tackling machine Jarrad Davis, shutdown corner Jalen Tabor and pass rusher Jabari Zuniga — has proven even better than advertised and leads the nation in giving up only 2.3 yards per play.

      The Gators’ offense has also surprisingly measured as more efficient than the Volunteers, 6.1 yards per play to 4.9 yards per play, but now must turn to quarterback Austin Appleby with Luke Del Rio nursing an injured knee. Appleby transferred from Purdue, where he went just 2-10 as a starter but 7-5 against the spread.

      Florida has beaten Tennessee in 11 consecutive meetings including by a single point in each of the last two years, making this a game the senior-laden Volunteers have worked towards for their entire careers. As strong as Florida’s numbers are, competition must be accounted for as two wins came against two of the lowest power-rated teams in college football — North Texas and Massachusetts.

      Play: Tennessee minus-6.5

    •  In this Sept. 27, 2014, file photo, North Carolina's Mitch Trubisky (10) warm ups before an NCAA college football game against Clemson in Clemson, S.C. North Carolina coach Larry Fedora, on Friday, April 22, 2016, has named Trubisky as starting quarterback for the opener against Georgia.

      Pittsburgh plus-7 at North Carolina, over/under: 68; 12:30 p.m. on ESPNU

      It’s only fitting that the first game pitting opponents in what the odds consider the most competitive major-conference division in the country is between teams this evenly matched.

      In Football Outsiders F/+ ratings, Pittsburgh is ranked No. 38 in the nation with North Carolina at No. 40. Both programs are among five in the ACC Coastal division — along with Miami, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech — that were posted at less than 10-to-1 to reach the ACC Championship Game before the season.

      Since then, the Panthers and the Tar Heels have each beaten one major non-conference opponent while falling as an underdog to another. The only difference is Pittsburgh is yet to cover, having missed the mark by a combined 5 points against Oklahoma State and Peen State the last two weeks.

      The Panthers have run the ball on 70 percent of its plays in those games, with James Conner having gained 228 yards on 46 carries. North Carolina has opened up its offense more, as quarterback Mitch Trubinsky has completed 67 of 91 passing attempts for 853 yards.

      The junior has thrown 11 touchdowns over the last two years without an interception since his freshman season.

      Play: Pittsburgh plus-7

    • Colorado outside linebacker Jimmie Gilbert (98) pushes Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight (3) out of bounds on a carry in the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Mich., Saturday, Sept. 17, 2016. Michigan won 45-28.

      Penn State plus-18.5 at Michigan, over/under: 57; 12:30 p.m. on ABC

      Barring any major developments, Michigan will open the season as a double-digit favorite in seven straight games.

      The high asking prices haven’t bothered the Wolverines to this point. Colorado is the only team to have covered against Michigan, and the Buffaloes did it by a half-point in a 45-28 defeat as 17.5-point underdogs last week.

      Michigan fell into a 21-7 hole and was able to dig out to reveal a difference about this year’s team. Whereas the Wolverines pushed themselves into the playoff conversation early last year with almost all defense, the offense is on the same level this year.

      Junior quarterback Wilton Speight has thrown for eight touchdowns to one interception, while Michigan has increased its yards per play from 5.6 last year to 6.2 so far this season. Penn State has been even more reliant on its offense, scoring at least 30 points in all three games during a 1-2 against the spread start to the season.

      Sophomore running back Saquon Barkley, who’s expected back from an ankle injury against Michigan, leads the attack. All the offensive firepower makes this the highest total in series history between the Big Ten rivals.

      Guess: Penn State plus-18.5

    • LSU quarterback Danny Etling (16) passes in the second half of an NCAA college football game against Mississippi State in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Sept. 17, 2016. LSU win 23-20.

      LSU minus-3.5 at Auburn, over/under: 45; 3 p.m. on ESPN

      Purdue transfer quarterbacks are all the rage among supposed SEC contenders at the moment.

      Just as Appleby takes over at Florida, his former teammate Danny Etling has assumed the role at LSU. Etling went 19-for-30 for 215 yards and a touchdown in his first start, a 23-20 victory over Mississippi State that left LSU, a 14-point favorite, still searching for its first cover of the year.

      LSU has gotten bet heavily each week, but have yet to reward its backers. Auburn, on the other hand, has been a bet-against for the majority of the season and gamblers finally reaped the benefits last week.

      Auburn fell 29-16 to Texas A&M as 1-point favorites to further diminish the job security of coach Gus Malzahn. Since taking Auburn to the national championship game in his first season, Malzahn is just 16-13 straight-up and 9-20 against the spread.

      He may also be on the verge of a quarterback change, as he substituted Florida State transfer John Franklin III in for Sean White at the end of last week’s loss. But White will get the first crack at LSU.

      Lean: LSU minus-3.5

    • Oklahoma State wide receiver James Washington practices prior to the start of an NCAA college football game between Central Michigan and Oklahoma St in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 10, 2016.

      Oklahoma State plus-8 at Baylor, over/under: 74; 4:30 p.m. on Fox

      With college football fans already writing off the Big 12’s chances at producing a College Football Playoff contender, it’s as if everyone has forgotten about the most consistent program in the conference over the last five years.

      Gamblers are slowly starting to join in on doubting Baylor, which has tallied double-digit victories for three straight years and in four of the last five, with its recent against the spread slide. The Bears are yet to cover this season, meaning they’ve now lost to the number in eight of their last 10 contests.

      Baylor opened as a 10.5-point favorite before action on Oklahoma State drove the price down. The Cowboys figured to turn some heads after putting up 640 yards on Pittsburgh’s typically solid defense in a 45-38 win as a 3-point favorite last week.

      Junior receiver James Washington had 298 yards and two touchdowns on nine catches. It was the kind of stat line that used to be common for Baylor box scores, but it’s only had one 100-yard receiver in a game so far this year.

      K.D. Cannon racked up 213 yards and two touchdowns on nine receptions in a 38-10 win over Rice as 33.5-point favorites.

      Guess: Baylor minus-8

    • UCLA defensive lineman Eli Ankou (96) stops BYU quarterback Taysom Hill during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 17, 2016, in Provo, Utah.

      Stanford minus-3.5 at UCLA, over/under: 46.5; 5 p.m. on ABC

      If games with high dosage of passing offenses going up and down the field are called track meets, then this matchup is a wrestling match.

      Stanford makes no secret of its preference to run the ball as much as possible, which was beyond successful against Los Angeles’ other major school last week. The Cardinals put up 295 rushing yards and 6.3 yards per carry in a 27-10 win against USC as 7.5-point favorites.

      Christian McCaffrey had 165 rushing yards, a season high but nearly 100 yards less than he recorded in a 56-35 victory over UCLA last year. But the Bruins feel they are more equipped to handle Cardinal this year.

      Nose guard Eli Ankou and tackle Eddie Vanderdoes form one of the best middle defensive lines in the nation, and both missed last year’s Stanford game. UCLA held BYU to less than one yard per carry last week.

      Stanford has run on 68 percent of its plays this year, ranking seventh in the country. UCLA is on the other end of the leaderboard, passing 54 percent of time with sophomore quarterback Josh Rosen.

      It’s capable of also going ground-heavy, however, with a four-man running back rotation starring Soso Jamabo.

      Guess: UCLA plus-3.5

    • Arkansas' Rawleigh Williams III (22) celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the third quarter of an NCAA college football game against Texas State Saturday, Sept. 17, 2016 in Fayetteville, Ark. Arkansas beat Texas State, 42-3.

      Arkansas plus-6.5 vs. Texas A&M in Arlington, Texas, over/under: 49.5; 6 p.m. on ESPN

      The best strategy for betting on the SEC West over the last two years has been to back Arkansas and fade Texas A&M.

      The Razorbacks are 11-4-1 against the spread since 2015 in SEC play, while the Aggies are 4-11-1. The lone push for each side came in this neutral-site matchup last year, where Texas A&M escaped as a 7-point favorite with a 28-21 overtime victory.

      Even though both rosters have seen a fair share of turnover, this game should feature a similar stylistic clash. Texas A&M averages seven more plays per game than Arkansas since the start of last season, with coach Kevin Sumlin’s uptempo approach contrasting with Bret Bielema’s more deliberate leanings.

      Arkansas quarterback Austin Allen has thrown 40 fewer passes than Texas A&M quarterback Trevor Knight this year. Rawleigh Williams III is the centerpiece of the Razorbacks’ offense and has gained 354 yards on 71 carries.

      Arkansas has obliterated spreads in each of the last two weeks, beating Texas State 42-3 as 28-point favorites and TCU 41-38 as 10.5-point underdogs, after slipping past Louisiana Tech 21-20 as 21-point favorites in Week 1. Texas A&M is perfect against the spread with all three games going under, signs that it may have repaired factors that contributed to recent disappointment in conference.

      Guess: Arkansas plus-6.5

    • Virginia Head Football Coach Bronco Mendenhall calls to his team during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Oregon Saturday, Sept. 10, 2016 in Eugene, Ore.

      Extra points

      Virginia plus-3.5 vs. Central Michigan This might be the Cavaliers’ best chance for a win remaining, and Bronco Mendenhall is too sharp of a coach to get shut out. Virginia has improved every week, and was unlucky to lose to Connecticut in a game where it had a 104-yard edge.

      Oregon minus-10.5 vs. Colorado The Ducks have beaten the Buffaloes by an average of 38 points and covered in every game since they started playing annually five years ago. Need to see more than a 17-point loss and half-point cover at Michigan to buy into Colorado hype.

      Mississippi State minus-21.5 at Massachusetts Spread is deflated because of Mississippi State’s upset earlier this year, but South Alabama is much better than UMass. And the Minutemen deserve no adjustment for home field advantage playing at Gillette Stadium.

      Appalachian State minus-6 at Akron Expecting a more focused performance from the team that lost by 35 points last week than from the one that won by 27 points. Miami might be one of the most underrated teams in the nation, so Appalachian State’s defeat may have created value on its side.

      BYU plus-7 vs. West Virginia in Washington D.C. With all of their games being decided by less than a field goal, the 1-2 Cougars could just as easily be 3-0. They’ll find less resistance than in their last two games against the inexperienced West Virginia defense.

      Kent State vs. Alabama under 50.5 points Kent State won’t be able to score on Alabama, and coach Nick Saban is never one to run up the score on outmatched opponents.

    Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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