The San Antonio Spurs emerged as the most popular bet on the board last night.
Bettors displayed no hesitance in laying 3.5 points with San Antonio traveling to Memphis after it won the first two games of the teams’ first-round playoff series by a combined 33 points. Other than having to clean up a mess of discarded betting tickets off of the casino floor, the game went perfectly for sports books.
Memphis’ 105-94 victory over San Antonio was another big win for the house. Sports books have soared early in the NBA Playoffs, largely assisted by underdogs starting 10-6 against the spread.
It’s time to turn the tables, and let the powers be with the bettors.
Read below to find what you need to know before betting each of the eight series going forward.
Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls
Updated series price: Bulls minus-180, Celtics plus-160
Game 3: Celtics minus-2, tonight at 4 p.m.
Not only did the Celtics fail to win either of the games on their home floor, they were also at no point ever covering the spread in the two opening contests. It’s been a hard fall for the surprising No. 1 seeded team in the Eastern Conference, but not one they can’t recover from. Bettors don’t think so anyway. Game 3 had one of the biggest line moves of the playoffs, with the Celtics now laying 2 points after opening plus-1.5. The shift can be partially attributed to the injury to Chicago point guard Rajon Rondo, who had 14 assists in a 111-97 game 2 victory. But Rondo was a below-average player during the regular season, certainly not worth 3.5 points on the spread.
Washington Wizards vs. Atlanta Hawks
Updated series price: Wizards minus-900, Hawks plus-600
Game 3: Hawks minus-3, Saturday at 2:30 p.m.
The Wizards were the shortest series favorite coming into the playoffs at minus-200, a price that now seems foolish after two games. Washington joined San Antonio as the only favorites to cover in each of the first two games in a series, beating Atlanta 109-101 in game 1 and 114-107 in game 2 laying 5.5 points in both spots. Perhaps this was predictable. Atlanta is the weakest team in the playoffs, after getting outscored by an average of .9 points per game this season. Washington outscored opponents by 1.8 points per game, making the teams’ season-long scoring differential abnormally large for a No. 4 seed vs. No. 5 seed series.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Toronto Raptors
Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo dunks during the second half of game 3 of their NBA first-round playoff series basketball game against the Toronto Raptors Thursday, April 20, 2017, in Milwaukee.
Updated series price: Bucks minus-150, Raptors plus-130
Game 4: Celtics minus-2, Saturday at Noon
Bucks’ backers are the big winners of the first week of the playoffs. Milwaukee was plus-320 to win the series before it began — almost as high as Chicago’s plus-400 — and has proceeded to cover in all three games with two outright wins. Milwaukee presented a great opportunity when the majority of the betting market wasn’t paying attention. Now that everyone is aboard the idea of Giannis Antetokounmpo cementing his star status with a first-round upset, it might be time to be wary. The Bucks have drawn 70 percent of the early action ahead of game 4, pushing the spread up as high as a point from minus-1.5 to minus-2.5 at some sports books.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers
Updated series price: Cavaliers minus-1700, Pacers plus-7000
Game 4: Cavaliers minus-3, Sunday at 10 a.m.
This series is all but over, so the only question is whether to back Cleveland to finish off Indiana on Sunday. Based on LeBron James’ history in decisive playoff games, the answer is probably yes. The Cavaliers covered in their last four such matchups in last year’s postseason, bringing its record to 7-3 against the spread since James returned two seasons ago in potential elimination games. The greatest second-half comeback in playoff history, where the Cavaliers won 119-114 after being down 26 points at halftime in game 3, allowed them to beat the 3-point spread and get their first cover of the postseason.
Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trailblazers
Updated series price: Warriors minus-2300, Trailblazers plus-9000
Game 3: Warriors minus-6, Saturday at 7:30 p.m.
After two blowouts to open the series, but only one cover, the Warriors are a historically high favorite to win the NBA title. They’re currently minus-220 to win the championship, which is even significantly higher than the minus-160 price they had at this time a year ago after the best regular season in NBA history. In fairness, they never got any higher in the first round last year because Stephen Curry went down with a knee injury in game 4. They’re dealing with an injury to Kevin Durant this year, but seem to have learned how to get by without their most efficient player. Although they struggled at first when Durant hurt his knee in the regular season, the Warriors’ 110-81 game 2 victory over the Trailblazers as 11.5-point favorites was their eighth straight cover in games without him.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Utah Jazz
Updated series price: Clippers minus-255, Jazz plus-215
Game 3: Clippers minus-1.5, tonight at 7 p.m.
Between Rudy Gobert’s injury, Joe Johnson’s buzzer beater and the Clippers’ Big Three outbreak in game 2, it feels like a lot has happened in this series. The betting line is the only place that’s lacked action. There’s been little movement on the series price — the Clippers were minus-225 before game 1 — after the teams split the first two games. The Jazz secured a covered in a game 2, losing 99-91 as 9-point underdogs, to make themselves the only Western Conference left undefeated against the spread in the postseason. That conflicts with their regular season profile, as Utah was the most overvalued Western Conference playoff team with a 36-42-4 against the spread record.
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) shoots as Oklahoma City Thunder forward Taj Gibson defends during the first half in Game 2 of an NBA basketball first-round playoff series, Wednesday, April 19, 2017, in Houston.
Updated series price: Rockets minus-1200, Thunder plus-700
Game 3: Thunder minus-2, tonight at 6:30 p.m.
It’s too bad this series hasn’t been straight Russell Westbrook vs. James Harden like it was billed. That would have made it more competitive. Harden has 73 points and Westbrook has 72 points through two Rockets’ wins. Westbrook helped the Thunder cover plus-7.5 in a 115-111 game 2 loss with 51 points, 13 assists and 10 rebounds. Tonight, his over/under of total points, assists and rebounds is 57.5 at the Superbook. Harden’s number is set at 49.5. Even though the Thunder project to be favored in each of the next two games at home, current odds imply better than a 90 percent chance the Rockets advance. At least Westbrook probably has the MVP trophy to look forward to. He’s minus-600 to win the award, with Harden at plus-450.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Updated series price: Spurs minus-2700, Grizzlies plus-1500
Game 4: Spurs minus-3.5, Saturday at 5 p.m.
The Grizzlies had an abnormally hot shooting night against the Spurs’ top-rated defense in game 3, making 39 of 77 field goal attempts to win 105-94 as 3.5-point underdogs. These teams probably know each other better than any other first-round opponents. Because their four-game regular season series was loaded towards the back of the schedule, they’ve now played seven times in the last two and a half months. Memphis has fared better than some may expect, going 5-2 against the spread. But the Spurs are still 4-3 straight-up, outscoring Grizzlies by a little more than 3 points per game, or exactly where the game 4 spread sits. As Grizzlies coach David Fizdale would say, take that for data.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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