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An abundance of top-flight prospects, including potential generational talents in Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball, has this year’s NBA Draft, which airs at 4 p.m. Thursday on ESPN, as one of the most anticipated of the last several years.
Locally, players deeper down draft boards like Tony Bradley and Ike Anigbogu will be every bit as important as the superstars taken in the top five. Much like the NFL Draft in April, the Nevada Gaming Control Board is allowing casinos to take wagers on the NBA Draft for the first time.
Bookmakers had to get creative on proposition wagers approved for gambling, and wound up with several bets involving first-round picks and major college programs such as Bradley’s North Carolina and Anigbogu’s UCLA. Anigbogu, for instance, is a fringe first-rounder who will decide whether the Bruins go over their total of 2.5 top 30 picks — the over is minus-380 (risking $3.80 to win $1) with the under coming back at plus-310 (risking $1 to win 3.10).
Talking Points scoured the NBA Draft betting options at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook and William Hill sports books, and came up with the following five plays worth making.
Number of Kansas players selected: Over 1.5 at minus-200
Kansas guard Frank Mason III (0) shoots in front of Michigan State guard Lourawls Nairn Jr., right, during the first half of a second-round game in the men's NCAA college basketball tournament in Tulsa, Okla., Sunday, March 19, 2017.
This prop may as well be restated as, “Will the Naismith Player of the Year get drafted?”, because that’s what it’s really asking.
A month ago, it might have looked like a long shot for a team to use a pick on 5-foot-3, 23-year-old Frank Mason III but plenty has changed. Mason has enhanced his draft stock by impressing on the scouting and workout circuits.
There’s no question his Jayhawks’ teammate, Josh Jackson, is going in the top five so Mason just needs to get selected to cash this ticket. Oddsmakers haven’t quite adjusted enough for how likely that is to happen with the strong reports coming out on Mason.
Number of Gonzaga players selected: Under 1.5 at minus-130
Swap out Mason for former local Findlay Prep star Nigel Williams-Goss, and this prop is the same as the Kansas one.
Bishop Gorman graduate Zach Collins is probably going in the lottery, leaving it up to Williams-Goss to deliver for Gonzaga backers. Unfortunately, Williams-Goss hasn’t generated the same pre-draft buzz as Mason.
It’s more likely than not he’s left undrafted, and signs a free-agent deal. It only takes one team liking him to ruin this best, of course, but the odds don’t seem great.
More players selected: ACC minus-1.5 at plus-110 vs. Pac-12
Remember when everyone decried the ACC as overrated during the NCAA Tournament? Don’t.
It’s not going to help handicap this prop. Even if you don’t believe the ACC was the best conference this season, it was certainly the deepest in terms of pro potential.
The Pac-12 has the headliners, and probably more sure things to go in the draft. But the ACC might have around 20 different players who could get selected. The ACC shouldn’t be available at a plus-price.
Number of Duke players selected in first round: Under 3.5 at minus-160
UNLV forward Christian Jones (20) takes a hard foul as Duke guard Frank Jackson (15) comes over his back during their game at the T-Mobile Arena on Saturday, Dec. 10, 2016.
I’m not proud of dipping into another chalky pick, but this might be one of the better plays available on the board.
Three Blue Devils are expected to go in the first round, but it’s no guarantee. Swingman Jayson Tatum is the only surefire lock.
Sharp-shooter Luke Kennard is almost certainly a first-rounder too, though he wasn’t until recently so a tumble wouldn’t be unprecedented. Big man Harry Giles is where things get real dicey, as the 19-year-old already carries a lengthy injury history that could scare teams away.
Even if Giles, Kennard and Tatum go early, it would be considered a reach if a team at the end of the first round picked shooting guard Frank Jackson. And that’s the only way this hits the over 3.5.
More players selected: Oregon plus-200 vs. UCLA
More than likely, this ends in a stalemate.
The Bruins’ Ball, Anigbogu and T.J. Leaf are bound to hear their names called. It’s more possible one of Ducks’ trio of Dillon Brooks, Tyler Dorsey and Jordan Bell is let down, but not likely.
The prop will therefore come down to which teams’ duo is more likely to produce a surprise pick — Oregon’s Dylan Ennis and Chris Boucher versus UCLA’s Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton. It might very well be the former.
There’s no harm in hoping for a two-times payout by betting on it. It’s important to note that for this bet former UCLA big man Jonah Bolden does not qualify.
Bolden counts as an international player after leaving the Bruins to pursue professional basketball in Serbia.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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