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The combination of two favored No. 1 seeds prevailing alongside two outright upsets in Thursday’s games leaves the NCAA Tournament with a Saturday Elite Eight slate that, by the odds, isn’t particularly competitive.
Gonzaga lays 8.5 points to Xavier in the West Region final in San Jose, Calif., while Kansas gives 7 points to Oregon in the Midwest Region final in Kansas City, Mo. Only once in the last decade has a pair of Elite Eight games on the same day had a higher combined spread than 15 points.
It just wasn’t that long ago. Last year’s Sunday schedule of Elite Eight games saw Syracuse overcome a plus-8 point spread to beat Virginia 68-62 outright, before North Carolina covered minus-9.5 in an 88-74 win over Notre Dame.
Are bettors in for another Elite Eight day where one favorite covers while the other gets upset?
Check below for Talking Points’ picks. The blog has gone 32-26-2 against the spread picking every game of the tournament so far.
No. 1 seed Gonzaga minus-8.5 vs. No. 11 seed Xavier Good news for Xavier: The aforementioned Notre Dame team is the only Elite Eight underdog in the last 10 years to get at least 8 points and fail to cover. Two of the six big underdogs won outright. And it’s not hard to figure out why. Teams that put themselves in position to get this many points obviously had their struggles during the year, but have just as evidently solved them to become one of the last eight teams playing in the tournament. There’s no disputing Xavier has found its rhythm after stunning Arizona 73-71 as 7.5-point underdogs in the Sweet 16. The Musketeers have compensated for the loss of Edmond Sumner by allowing both Trevon Bluiett and J.P. Macura to carry superstars’ work load.
They look even more poised for success than some of their predecessors considering how Gonzaga has played lately. After being on pace to set the best against the spread record in college basketball history with two weeks to go in the regular season, the Bulldogs have gone 3-5-1 against the spread. They’ve yet to cover in the tournament, where they’ve had one of the least impressive runs to the Elite Eight imaginable. Gonzaga far from shored up offensive issues seen in its first two games in a 61-58 sweet 16 victory over West Virginia, where it shot 18-for-44 from the field. But the Mountaineers are a nightmare to play for teams unfamiliar with their press, and there’s still a much larger sample size that indicates the Bulldogs are one of the most efficient teams in the nation on offense.
It’s always preferable to go with the larger sample. Gonzaga’s play lately is a concern, but based on the entire season, it should beat Xavier by double digits. Three-fourths of the money is on Xavier and yet the spread hasn’t flinched, which is another warning sign. The books will need Gonzaga, and being on their side with a team that’s been the best in the nation over the course of the season isn’t a bad place to sit.
No. 3 seed Oregon plus-7 vs. No. 1 seed Kansas Although Kansas coach Bill Self got past the Final Four hurdle that many felt plagued his early career years ago, he’s still never exactly solved the Elite Eight. It’s no surprise Self called it, “the hardest round of the tournament,” yesterday, considering he’s 2-7 straight-up and 1-8 against the spread lifetime in the national quarterfinals. In fairness, most of them didn’t set up quite as well as this year’s. In many ways, Oregon resembles a lesser version of Kansas. Both teams have embraced small ball, starting four guard lineups capable of offensive dominance. But while Pac-12 Player of the Year Dillon Brooks leads Oregon, likely National Player of the Year Frank Mason III leads Kansas. Brooks’ star underclassman sidekick, sophomore Tyler Dorsey, might one day get drafted into the NBA. Mason’s star underclassman sidekick, freshman Josh Jackson, is sure to go in the NBA Draft lottery in two months. And it could continue on; Kansas looks a little better in every spot.
But Oregon’s Dana Altman is a terrific coach, and no team has ever intimidated the Ducks. After beating Michigan 69-68 while getting a point on the betting line in the Sweet 16, Oregon has now won outright in all three games where it was an underdog this season. The Ducks are also 7-2 straight-up and 6-3 against the spread on the road.
And make no mistake: This is a road game. It’s hard to say how drastic the point-spread adjustment should be for Kansas playing less than an hour from its campus, but easy to see it wasn’t enough in a 98-66 victory over Purdue as 5.5-point favorites Thursday. Kansas laying seven points to an Oregon team that’s better than Purdue seems fairer. The line looks perfect. And when that’s the case, it’s better to lean towards taking the points.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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