Vegas Play of the Day: Memphis at Houston

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Sam Morris/Las Vegas News Bureau

University of Houston fans cheer during their Las Vegas Bowl game against San Diego State Saturday, Dec. 16, 2016, at Sam Boyd Stadium. San Diego State won the game 34-10.

Thu, Oct 19, 2017 (2 a.m.)

We’ve entered the fourth season of the annual South Point-lined Play of the Day competition, effective July 1.

Starting bankrolls have reset to $10,000, with the maximum bet being to win $1,000 and the minimum wager $300. Ray Brewer won back-to-back titles in the 2015-2016 and 2016-17 seasons, after Taylor Bern prevailed in 2014-2015.

Houston minus-3 vs. Memphis: $440 to win $400

Recency bias is a disease that inflicts the betting market all too often. This game reeks of it.

Houston is getting weighed down on the point spread because of what happened last week. The Cougars were obliterated by lowly Tulsa, losing 45-17 as 13-point favorites, while the Tigers defeated a game opponent in Navy 30-27 as 3-point favorites.

Both were results worthy of handicappers’ attention, but not at the expense of what’s happened over the rest of the season. And over the rest of the season, Houston had been more impressive than Memphis.

The Cougars were 6-point favorites on the road at Memphis last November — losing 48-44 despite a big yardage advantage — and that number seemed fair for this year’s meeting between the two American Athletic Conference rivals. But because of what happened against Tulsa, Houston’s asking price is three points lower.

If anything, the Tulsa debacle may have helped Houston. Coach Major Applewhite surely was able to get his team’s attention in practice this week.

He probably preached that the Cougars could easily move past the loss and continue to control their own destiny in the AAC West with a victory over the Tigers. That’s exactly what they’re going to do tonight.

Current Standings: Granger (7-7, $11,475), Keefer (11-8-1, $10,781), Grimala (5-6, $8,715), Brewer (11-11, $8,990)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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