By now, the instant post-mortems on Election 2009 results will have been written, either overstating (most likely) or understating their significance for Campaign 2010.
Such is the standard day-after fare. But the relevant question is: What does all of this mean, if anything, for Nevada, where the state’s two most important races could be affected by how a restive GOP electorate cleaves in competitive primaries for governor and U.S. Senate?
Nevada is not Virginia or New Jersey or that bizarre New York congressional district, where one national Republican expert said it probably doesn’t teach the GOP much: “How often are party leaders gonna handpick a pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-tax increase person? Not often.”
Which brings me to Brian Sandoval, who fits the first two descriptions and will be tarred with the third because, as attorney general, he acted on Kenny Guinn’s behalf when the governor sued and paved the way for what was then the largest tax increase in history.
Sandoval is the front-runner in public polls, but it’s reasonable to ask on this day-after if he might be vulnerable to an anti-RINO (Republican In Name Only) attack by a candidate — Gov. Jim Gibbons seems most likely — looking to activate the supposedly angry right-wing base.
Certainly the Sandoval campaign has to take a sitting governor seriously, as much as Gibbons tries almost daily to ensure people don’t take him seriously. But the recent history of Nevada elections shows no evidence that the more conservative — or ostensibly more conservative — candidate will win a GOP primary.
In 1998 the late Aaron Russo, a mercurial, flamboyant Hollywood producer, tarred Guinn as a RINO, but he was crushed. (Granted, Russo seemed more bizarre than Gibbons at times.) In 2006 Gibbons ran against Bob Beers, the conservative, anti-tax hero of the Legislature, and destroyed him. That same cycle, in a congressional race, Dean Heller was called a liberal in a conservative district and still defeated right-winger Sharron Angle.
Granted, except for the Heller-Angle race, where the Club for Growth outspent Heller on Angle’s behalf, money also has been a key factor. But there may be more going on here, too.
In the same way that Democrats here are more moderate than their counterparts elsewhere, Republicans in Nevada are not as rabid as some on the right would think and hope. In a small political subdivision such as a legislative district, where there will be several GOP primaries, the conservative base may have more impact — but it’s less likely in a statewide contest.
The base can be loud — and even destructive — but what happens in the central committee often stays in the central committee — with both parties. It may escape the partisan echo chamber this year because turnout will be lower in an off-presidential year, thus amplifying the base’s impact. But any GOP anger next year may well be turned outward rather than inward — that is, toward anyone with the last name Reid.
That’s why the Snow White (Sue Lowden) and the dwarves Senate primary is so unpredictable. All the GOP contenders are likely to train their fire on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, rather than each other — although surely there will be some sub rosa stuff and maybe, toward June, some public internecine warfare. The constant attacks will not help Reid the Elder or Reid the Younger as both coast to June victories but then must worry about a two-Reids drag combining with any motivated GOP base.
Countering all of this is a 100,000-voter statewide registration edge by Democrats yet to be harnessed in an off-year by the best political machine the state has seen, even more important because turnout will be significantly down (it was 59 percent in 2006). And the real wild card in Campaign 2010 here are the independents, who voted for Barack Obama by a 2-to-1 margin but now are leaning toward the GOP. (Might a third-party contender, as Doug Hoffman was in New York, be a factor in this odd year? Ask Mayor Oscar Goodman.)
This is still a center-right state that, until voters chose the flawed conservative (Gibbons) over the accented liberal (Dina Titus) in 2006, had elected and reelected three center-right governors since 1982. The activists on the right and left don’t determine important Nevada electoral outcomes — the great middle does.
Democrats hoping for GOP cannibalism in the two major races and tapping the registration advantage should worry about the impact of the economy and the two-Reids effect as a counterbalance. No matter what happened in New York, New Jersey and Virginia, those are the factors that will drive the Nevada results we will be talking about one year from today.
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