Ladies and gentlemen of the Nevada electorate, meet Harry Reid.
You say you know the Senate majority leader? You only think you do.
And Reid wants you to know that no matter how much you love him (a small subset of the electorate) or hate him (too big a group for his liking) or are not quite sure yet (hello, target audience), he has some ads for you.
More than one year before he faces voters, Reid has begun an ad campaign that seeks to define him in a way that will help him overcome polling numbers that have killed many politicians. (The ads, produced by nationally known GMMB, are posted here: http://tinyurl.com/yfw5gq9).
The majority leader is starting so early for two reasons: He can, and he needs to.
Reid has known for some time that no matter whom he faces in the general election, he will face a formidable assault from the national GOP because his approval rating is abysmal — as low as the high 30s and as high as the low 40s. Those numbers might be fatal except that in politics, campaign cash has remarkable rejuvenative powers.
So with $12 million banked, Reid has commenced a bifurcated campaign that hypes his efforts to save CityCenter — with a testimonial from MGM Mirage CEO Jim Murren — for the Southern audience and a bio spot — the hardscrabble childhood to seat of power story — for the Reno electorate.
The ads presage Reid’s overall strategy to win the race, whether it is Snow White (Sue Lowden) or any of the dwarves who emerges in June to challenge him and suddenly become the national GOP’s favorite person in the world. The campaign will be designed to offset the imbued impression of Reid, even among some who still support him, as a political dinosaur bound for extinction.
Instead of a partisan hack or an incendiary pol, the Harry Reid being reintroduced — or introduced — is a man at the apex of congressional power who has used that clout to help the state (cue Jim Murren: “There’s no one else who could have done that”). And while you may think of him as a career politician, Reid really is the son of a hard rock miner who battled organized crime and overcame a poor upbringing to achieve greatness — the American Dream personified (cue the tear ducts).
Reid really has no choice but to take this course, which is the first step in a strategy to save the senator from the Reid you thought you knew. The ads are not intended for those who don’t want to shake Reid’s hand and would prefer to spit in his face — or at least vote against him no matter who is on the ballot come November 2010. Reid knows that 40 percent or so of voters are, like that war he once talked about, lost. They won’t vote for him no matter how he portrays himself.
But about one-third of registered voters (400,000) in Nevada have never been able to cast a vote for Harry Reid. This is a chance with some members of a universe that may not yet be afflicted with Reid Fatigue.
And because he will have so much more money than his opponent — and help from outside groups — Reid can sit back and watch his GOP foes spend their resources to kill each other. The GOP winner is likely to be damaged and broke come June, and even though the Republican cash infusion from outside Nevada will help, Reid will far outspend his rival.
This is not a typical Senate race in many aspects, so this early TV campaign probably is one of many anomalies we will see in the next year. The foundation for this actually began in 2007 when Reid secured an early presidential caucus. Many whispered at the time that as advantageous as it was for Nevada to be an early voting state in the White House race, it was equally or more helpful to Reid, who could then piggyback on whatever infrastructure was built and voter registration gains were achieved to run his 2010 reelection.
Reid needs that organizational advantage and he needs all of that money to try to sway and move to the polls next November the small number of voters who are still in play. To do so, the warm and fuzzy Harry Reid you are meeting this week on the airwaves probably won’t be there by mid-2010.
Sooner or later this campaign is likely to come down not to whether the senator can persuade voters to like him, but whether he can make them like his opponent even less.
Discussion: 4 comments so far…