Whether a franchise with a top-six pick chooses Marcus Mariota or another organization further down the board like the Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers or St. Louis Rams trades up to select him, someone is expected to make a major investment in the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback from the University of Oregon shortly after the NFL draft begins Thursday night.
So the multimillion-dollar question to which no one truly knows the answer is this: Will Mariota be worth it?
The draft is a guessing game, and every selection is based on a projection. But in an era of college football inundated with spread, no-huddle, shotgun, hurry-up offenses, accurately predicting how a quarterback will transition from one of those systems to a pro-style scheme in the NFL has proved to be extremely difficult in recent years.
“The league, in general, has got to figure out how you take guys from this system, change kind of what they are, if you are going to do something different with them, and plug them in,” Browns general manager Ray Farmer said last week during his pre-draft news conference. “You have to figure out either how to make the adjustment or everybody is going to start running the spread in the National Football League. I think the teams that figure it out the fastest or change the fastest will reap the benefits.”
The 6-foot-33/4, 222-pound Mariota represents the dilemma NFL talent evaluators face.
He hasn’t huddled since he played high school football in his hometown of Honolulu, and he took fewer than 10 snaps under center during his three seasons at Oregon. ESPN’s Todd McShay is among the analysts who have pointed out Mariota wasn’t asked to make many NFL-type throws in college.
New Browns quarterbacks coach Kevin O’Connell focused on those issues while training Mariota for about six weeks in preparation for the NFL Scouting Combine in February. He told Mariota to recite play calls in his downtime, so he could grow accustomed to relaying such information in a huddle. Of course, they also worked tirelessly on mechanics, and O’Connell even enlisted Chargers five-time Pro Bowl quarterback Philip Rivers to help tutor Mariota.
“I haven’t huddled in awhile,” Mariota, 21, said at the combine. “It seems like a little detail, but that is kind of a big thing. There’s other things as well. Three-, five-, seven-step drops under center. That’s all stuff I’ve been able to work on.
“It will be an adjustment I’ll be able to handle. [I’m] learning as much as I can, learning how my drops time up with the route concepts and how my feet are going to help me go through my progressions.”
Tennessee Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt left his team’s private workout with Mariota believing he is capable of adapting well.
“He did a bunch of snaps under center in his workout. It didn’t look like a problem at all,” Whisenhunt said last month at the NFL owners meetings. “They’re athletes, high-functioning athletes. They can do it. You naturally think he could make that transition.”
If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston first overall like many draft analysts anticipate, the Mariota-related dominoes could start falling when Whisenhunt and the Titans are put on the clock at No. 2. If they pick someone else (Southern California defensive lineman Leonard Williams has widely been labeled a candidate), the lowest most analysts predict Mariota would fall is No. 6 to the New York Jets.
But if the Titans don’t pick Mariota, there’s also probably a strong possibility they would trade the selection.
The Browns, who have the Nos. 12 and 19 overall picks, are among the teams that have been linked to a possible pursuit of Mariota, along with the Eagles (No. 20), Chargers (No. 17) and Rams (No. 10).
Farmer and Browns coach Mike Pettine had fun with the media last week when asked about potentially making a move for Mariota. They both replied, “Sure. Why not?”
The easy answer is Mariota might not be worth the hefty price the Browns would need to pay to secure him. But it might not be the correct answer, especially if Mariota can adjust to the NFL game.
“It’s a projection,” Pettine said at the owners meetings. “Sometimes people look at that as a gamble, especially in the first round, to project a guy to be something that he hasn’t been. It’s something you have to take into account.”
Pettine also praised Mariota last month for his intelligence. He’s heard stories from O’Connell about Mariota impressively explaining pro-style offenses in classroom settings with NFL decision-makers.
Perhaps Mariota’s intellect will help him make a successful transition and entice the Browns or another quarterback-needy team.
“Marcus has an unbelievable mind,” Scott Frost, Oregon’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, said in January before the national championship game against Ohio State. “I think that’s his best attribute. Despite being able to do everything he does physically, he can process things so fast. Sometimes it makes me feel inadequate because of how fast he can think through things.”
Still, the vast majority of analysts believe Mariota will need time to marinate before being thrown into the NFL fire.
“(He) ideally needs to redshirt as a NFL rookie because of the jump he faces going from Oregon to a pro-style scheme,” NFLDraftScout.com analyst Dane Brugler wrote in his draft guide.
Another perceived weakness of Mariota is his quiet, unassuming nature. He’s often lauded for having great character, but he’s not the boisterous, vocal leader some coaches seek at quarterback.
“Just because a guy doesn’t yell and scream at a guy when he doesn’t run the right route [people say he lacks leadership]. Ask any of those guys if they’d take Eli Manning,” Eagles coach Chip Kelly, who recruited Mariota and coached him at Oregon, said at the owners meetings. “I don’t see [New York Giants quarterback] Eli Manning screaming and yelling at anybody. But you talk about a stone-cold killer in the fourth quarter — look how many fourth-quarter comebacks Eli’s had.”
Added Frost: “Marcus is always the same guy. Nothing gets him up, nothing gets him down. He’s a fiery competitor, but he has a cool demeanor and a calm exterior. There’s nothing that’s going to happen or no stage that’s going to make him change. Marcus is one of the best people I’ve ever been around, and he’s a great football player.”
Mariota also achieved immense success with the Ducks, as evidenced by his record of 36-5 as a starter, touchdown-pass-to-interception ratio of 105-14, completion percentage of 66.8 and 29 rushing touchdowns.
He completed 24-of-37 passes for 333 yards and two touchdowns with one interception in the national title game against Ohio State. But some question him because Oregon’s high-powered offense was held in check (2-of-12 on third down and just one touchdown in four red-zone trips) as the Ducks lost 42-20.
“Any motivation starts with some type of doubt,” Mariota said.
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