analysis:

Bern’s-Eye View: Even in weak division, UNLV will have an uphill battle

Boise State and San Diego State are the clear favorites to meet in this year’s Mountain West championship game

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Sam Morris / Las Vegas Sun

San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey looks for a way around the UNLV defense during their Mountain West Conference game Saturday, Nov. 30, 2013 at Sam Boyd Stadium. Pumphrey is a graduate of Canyon Springs High School.

Mon, Jul 27, 2015 (2 a.m.)

In 2014 there was a clear gap between the Mountain West’s two divisions, with one side boasting four double-digit win teams and the other sending a championship representative that finished the season at 6-8. As the league descends on the Cosmopolitan this week for the annual media days it doesn’t look like that gap will be bridged in 2015.

San Diego State looks like it has a chance to upset the paradigm, but overall the West is clearly trailing the Mountain. That includes UNLV and first-year coach Tony Sanchez, who has an uphill battle even in a weak division.

For as consistent as the program has been, last year’s victory in the title game was Boise State’s first outright Mountain West title. The Broncos are the odds-on favorite to take that title once again, though even they have some question marks.

On paper it’s shaping up as a defense-first, often ugly year of football in the league. The beauty is that things almost never play out as they appear in July, so keep these predictions handy for proper mockery in five months:

Predicted order of finish

MOUNTAIN DIVISION

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Boise State defensive tackle Armand Nance (40), center, huddles with his teammates before the first half of an NCAA football game against Mississippi, Thursday, Aug. 28, 2014, in Atlanta.

1. Boise State: Under first-year coach Bryan Harsin, the Broncos won the Mountain West and took down Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl. They’re the clear favorites this season.

2. Utah State: The defense is good, if not great. Will the offense be able to provide enough balance?

3. Colorado State: Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo takes over for former coach Jim McElwain. Are the Rams rebuilding or reloading?

4. Wyoming: After leaving Division I-AA power North Dakota State for Wyoming, coach Craig Bohl had a rough initial year in Division I with a 4-8 season, including 2-6 in league play. This one will go a little better.

5. Air Force: The team no one likes preparing for won’t hit the double-digit win mark again this year, but the Falcons will win at least a couple of games they shouldn’t.

6. New Mexico: Over three seasons at New Mexico, coach Bob Davie is 11-26 overall and 4-20 in Mountain West play. Would another last-place finish mean the end for the former Notre Dame coach?

WEST DIVISION

1. San Diego State: Last year, the Mountain was far better than the West — and that looks to be the case again, with one exception. The Aztecs could contend with Boise State. Unfortunately, we don’t get that game during the regular season, so we’ll just have to wait for the championship game Dec. 5.

2. Fresno State: The Bulldogs won the division last year at 6-6 overall and 5-3 in league play. The team could finish around the same marks this year.

3. San Jose State: If the Spartans figure out their quarterback spot, maybe they’ll be OK. If not, it could be another 3-9 season.

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UNR players haul the Fremont Cannon into their locker room following their win over UNLV 49-27 at Sam Boyd Stadium on Friday, November 29, 2014.

4. UNR: The focus in Reno will be on quarterback, but the Wolf Pack’s season could be determined by the defense. There’s a lot to figure out, but if the pieces fall right, UNR has the best chance to contend with San Diego State for the West crown.

5. Hawaii: Is this it for coach Norm Chow? Hawaii has been dreadful (8-29 the past three seasons), and this appears to be the best roster so far, so it could be Chow’s last chance.

6. UNLV: There is no quick fix. Three or four victories would be a successful season for first-year coach Tony Sanchez.

ALL-MOUNTAIN WEST TEAMS

Offense

QB — Chuckie Keeton, senior, Utah State

RB — Donnel Pumphrey, junior, San Diego State; Marteze Waller, senior, Fresno State

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UNLV wide receiver Devonte Boyd (83) fights off a tackle attempt by Nevada defensive back Evan Favors (19) after a catch and run at Sam Boyd Stadium on Friday, November 29, 2014.

WR — Rashard Higgins, junior, Colorado State; Devonte Boyd, sophomore, UNLV

TE — Steven Walker, senior, Colorado State

OL — Marcus Henry, senior, Boise State; Alex Fifita, senior, Fresno State; Rees Odhiambo, senior, Boise State; A.J. Ruechel, senior, Air Force; Reno Henderson, junior, New Mexico

• It’s an uncertain year at quarterback in the Mountain West, and that’s exemplified by the fact that only two guys — Utah State’s Chuckie Keeton and Hawaii’s Max Wittek — were nominated for selection.

I went with Keeton because, when healthy, he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but he hasn’t been healthy much during the past two seasons. Keeton has played in only nine of Utah State’s past 24 games because of various season-ending injuries, and if he’s hurt again, the title of league’s best quarterback could go to Wittek, a USC transfer, or Boise State’s Ryan Finley.

Defense/Special Teams

DL — Kamalei Correa, junior, Boise State; Eddie Yarbrough, senior, Wyoming; Ian Seau, senior, UNR; Jordan Nielsen, senior, Utah State

LB — Nick Vigil, junior, Utah State; Kyler Fackrell, senior, Utah State; Tanner Vallejo, junior, Boise State

DB — Weston Steelhammer, junior, Air Force; Darian Thompson, senior, Boise State; Damontae Kazee, junior, San Diego State; Cleveland Wallace III, junior, San Jose State

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San Diego State place kicker Donny Hageman (59) watches his missed field goal attempt in the final seconds of the game as Navy cornerback Brendon Clements (1) and Navy linebacker Chris Johnson (46) look on during the Poinsettia Bowl NCAA college football game Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2014, in San Diego. Navy won 17-16.

K — Donny Hageman, senior, San Diego State

P — Alex Boy, junior, UNR

RS — Deionte Gaines, sophomore, Colorado State

• Linebacker has been a position of strength at Utah State for several years, and while last year’s Defensive Player of the Year Zach Vigil is gone, younger brother Nick Vigil is around to wreak havoc. Paired with senior Kyler Fackrell, the younger Vigil should be able to help the Aggies remain close to the top-scoring defense and second-best total defense figures they put up last season.

Along the front line, keep an eye on UNR’s Ian Seau, a second-team All-Mountain West pick in December. The nephew of late NFL Hall of Famer Junior Seau, Ian Seau could end up being the league’s best defensive player this season.

Offensive Player of the Year: Pumphrey. Colorado State’s Rashard Higgins likely will win this preseason honor, but if Pumphrey, a Canyon Springs High grad, comes close to his junior-year performance — 143.6 rushing yards per game, 20 rushing touchdowns — the postseason award should be his.

Defensive Player of the Year: Thompson. With 14 career interceptions, including seven last season as a first-team All-Mountain West pick, Thompson is a proven ball hawk at safety with the potential to flip possession at any moment. That’s a nice weapon for the league’s best team.

Special Teams Player of the Year: Hageman. If one player emerges as the primary returner between New Mexico’s Carlos Wiggins and Ridge Jones, this award likely will go to that person. But if they take a bite out of each other’s numbers, it could be a guy like San Diego State kicker Hageman, who went 20-of-25 on field goals last season, including 6-of-7 from 40 yards and beyond.

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.

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