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Sports books’ odds conceal the historic nature of this year’s Golden State Warriors.
The Warriors finished the regular season as the first team in at least 13 years to lead the NBA in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They also added their names to an exclusive list consisting of just eight other teams that have outscored opponents by an average of more than 10 points per game.
Seven of the previous eight in the category won the title with the 1972 Milwaukee Bucks the only exception after they ran into another team on the list, the 1972 Los Angeles Lakers, in the finals.
So that alone is compelling enough evidence to make the Warriors the evident favorite to cut down the nets two months from now, right? Not in Las Vegas.
Golden State starts its playoff journey with future odds of 5-to-2 to win the NBA Championship at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, trailing the Cleveland Cavaliers at 9-to-5.
The Warriors' odds didn’t even drop with the bracket falling perfectly for them when the regular season wrapped up Wednesday. They won’t have to play either the Los Angeles Clippers or the San Antonio Spurs, the West’s next two most formidable opponents, until the conference semifinals.
Cleveland, meanwhile, set up to get its toughest possible path in the East with potentially the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks lurking after a first-round matchup with the overmatched Boston Celtics. The Hawks’ plus-5.4 point differential per game was easily better than the Cavaliers’ plus-4.5, which was nearly two and a half times less than the Warriors’ figure.
Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green might not have as much respect as LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love in the betting market. But they have something more important — value.
Check below for a full preview and odds of the first round of the NBA playoffs.
No. 1 seed Golden State Warriors vs. No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans
Series price: Warriors minus-4000; Pelicans plus-1800
Game one: Warriors minus-11.5; over/under: 203.5 (12:30 p.m. Saturday)
Matchup: The Pelicans made a bit of history this season too. Anthony Davis posted the 11th highest Player Efficiency Rating in NBA history — behind seasons only by Wilt Chamberlin, Michael Jordan and LeBron James — in leading the franchise to its first playoff berth since coach Monty Williams’ first year in 2011. Part of New Orleans’ late surge to seal the No. 8 seed, in which it went 8-3 straight-up and 6-5 against the spread, included a 103-100 upset of Golden State at home. But overall this series feels much like the Western Conference’s No. 1 vs. No 8 matchup five years ago when a budding superstar, Kevin Durant, willed his team to the playoffs and into the path of a powerhouse. Durant and the Thunder had their moments in taking the series to six games, but the Los Angeles Lakers ultimately went on to repeat as NBA champions. The only place that comparison may fall short is in underestimating the Warriors’ dominance this season.
No. 4 seed Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 5 seed Portland Trail Blazers
Series price: Grizzlies minus-180; Trail Blazers plus-155
Game one: Grizzlies minus-4; over/under: 189.5 (5:00 p.m. Sunday)
Matchup: The Trail Blazers struggled dealing with the Grizzlies rugged interior-focused style, losing all four meetings this season straight-up and against the spread. The point differential was plus-34 in the Grizzlies’ favor. But there are a couple reasons for why Portland shouldn’t panic. Neither Mike Conley nor Tony Allen — Memphis’ two starting guards — have played down the stretch or will be ready for the start of the postseason. Although Portland has injury concerns of its own with Wesley Matthews out for the year and Nicolas Batum battling knee soreness, its frontcourt is intact to bang with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. The Trail Blazers were also in a near identical spot last year as the No. 5 seed, closing as a plus-165 underdog before Damian Lilliard and LaMarcus Aldridge sank the Rockets out of the playoffs prematurely.
No. 3 seed Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 6 seed San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs guard Manu Ginobili (20), guard Patty Mills (8) and center Tiago Splitter (22) celebrate against the Miami Heat during the second half in Game 5 of the NBA basketball finals on Sunday, June 15, 2014, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/
Series price: Spurs minus-170; Clippers plus-145
Game one: Clippers minus-1; over/under: 205.5 (7:30 p.m. Sunday)
Matchup: Not only is this the most anticipated first-round series, but it’s also the most competitive according to the odds. The series price, after adjusting for the house’s hold, implies just a 62 percent chance that the defending NBA champion Spurs get past the first round. There’s not a single set of power ratings to consult that would have the Clippers and Spurs outside of the top four in the NBA. They’re second and third, behind only the Warriors, in both efficiency differential and simple rating system. Even though they’re playing each other, the Spurs and Clippers are still a 4- and 14-to-1, respectively, for two of the six lowest prices. The edge given to the Clippers because of their home court advantage and top three players — Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan — is mitigated by the Spurs’ depth and coaching. Sports books will print the highest volume of tickets on the series and host electric environments in what should be a series of close games.
No. 2 seed Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 seed Dallas Mavericks
Series price: Rockets minus-280; Mavericks plus-230
Game one: Rockets minus-5.5; over/under: 209.5 (6:35 p.m. Saturday)
Matchup: Get ready for points. It’s no coincidence that the series between in-state rivals has the highest total among Game Ones. Behind Golden State, these are the West’s top two teams in pace with Houston having nearly 97 possessions per 48 minutes to Dallas’ 95. Rockets guard James Harden led the league in free throws with an astounding 169 more makes than second-place Russell Westbrook. Dallas was even more efficient on offense, with Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons all averaging 15 points per game or more. The Mavericks have arguably found more success than any other franchise as an underdog in the playoffs. They were 30-to-1 at the start of the playoffs when they won their only title in 2011. Just last year, they were one game away from shocking Spurs as 5-to-1 underdogs in the first round. Houston, meanwhile, hasn’t won a playoff series since 2009 in the last year of the Yao Ming era.
No. 1 seed Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 8 seed Brooklyn Nets
Series price: Hawks minus-1300; Nets plus-800
Game one: Hawks minus-10; over/under: 202 (2:35 p.m. Sunday)
Matchup: These teams might be in the two most improbable positions of the whole playoffs, albeit for entirely different reasons. The Nets, 200-to-1 to win the title, were an afterthought as recently as February at 1,000-to-1 in the future book with dim hopes of even making the playoffs. A 13-6 straight-up, 11-7-1 against the spread run behind a healthy Brook Lopez to end the regular season plunged them into the bracket. The Hawks claimed their top spot long ago, though it’s easy to forget how improbable their best regular season in franchise history was at the start of the year. Atlanta eclipsed its over/under win total of 43 games by 17 victories. The Hawks were 60-to-1 to win the title on opening night. They’re still abnormally high at 12-to-1 for a No. 1 seed — behind the Cavaliers, Warriors and Spurs and only barely ahead of the Bulls and Clippers at 14-to-1 — but the odds have shorted them all year. Atlanta comes into the playoffs with an NBA-best 50-30-2 against the spread record.
No. 4 seed Toronto Raptors vs. No. 5 seed Washington Wizards
Series price: Raptors minus-190; Wizards plus-160
Game one: Raptors minus-4.5; over/under: 192.5 (9:30 a.m. Saturday)
Matchup: The conventional wisdom is that this series doesn’t serve much of a purpose. The winner will be too flawed to seriously contend outside of this round. It speaks to the disappointing nature of both the Raptors’ and Wizards’ seasons. The Raptors, now 50-to-1 to win the title, were as low as 10-to-1 in December when they rampaged to the best start in the league. The Wizards, now 60-to-1, opened at 20-to-1 after garnering hype coming into the season by knocking off the Bulls in last year’s playoffs. The similarities end there. The problems diverge for the Raptors and Wizards. Toronto can score with the best behind a backcourt of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, but the 107.8 points it gives up per 100 possessions is the worst of any playoff team. Washington is magical on defense with shutdown players at every spot, but the basket sometimes seems invisible as the Wizards posted a second-worst 103.7 points per 100 possessions among playoff teams.
No. 3 seed Chicago Bulls vs. No. 6 seed Milwaukee Bucks
Chicago Bulls' Derrick Rose (1) goes up to shoot against Los Angeles Lakers' Ed Davis (21) during the second half of a NBA basketball game in Chicago, Thursday, Dec. 25, 2014. Chicago won 113-93.
Series price: Bulls minus-900; Bucks plus-600
Game one: Bulls minus-8; over/under: 187 (4:05 p.m. Saturday)
Matchup: Think the opposite of the other closest geographical series. Unlike Houston and Dallas, Chicago and Milwaukee won’t light up the scoreboard. All four of their meetings in the regular season went under the total with neither team ever reaching 100 points. At least the travel shouldn’t take a toll on them, what with less than 100 miles separating the two cities on I-94 East. Home-court advantage didn’t mean much to either team during the season anyway. They both have losing records against the spread on their home floor. Chicago finally seems healthy going into the playoffs with Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah both reportedly recovered from their ailments. Milwaukee’s major trade-deadline deal, which ultimately netted Michael Carter-Williams for Brandon Knight, has bred mixed results at best. The Bucks are 11-18 straight-up, 12-16-1 against the spread since the swap.
No. 2 seed Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 7 seed Boston Celtics
Series price: Cavaliers minus-5000; Celtics plus-2000
Game one: Cavaliers minus-11; over/under: 203 (Noon Sunday)
Matchup: Just how enamored is the betting market with the Cavaliers? They’re the biggest first-round favorite of at least the last three years. Yes, that includes LeBron James’ Heat teams, which were 25-to-1 over Charlotte and Milwaukee respectively the last two years. The number is a slight to the Celtics, which have gone 20-10 straight-up and 20-9-1 against the spread since landing Isaiah Thomas in the aforementioned Carter-Williams blockbuster at the trade deadline. Earlier this month, they snagged a pair of victories over the Cavaliers, though Cleveland was resting a handful of players with its playoff spot already secure. The Cavaliers are a pricey minus-200 favorite to represent the East in the finals, something James will look to achieve for a fifth consecutive season.
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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