Betting odds paint another Cavaliers vs. Warriors finals as more likely than ever

Raptors make small move up betting boards at trade deadline

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Tony Dejak / Associated Press

Cleveland Cavaliers’ LeBron James, left, and Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry battle for a loose ball in the second half of an NBA basketball game, Sunday, Dec. 25, 2016, in Cleveland. The Cavaliers won 109-108.

Fri, Feb 24, 2017 (2 a.m.)

Not in many years has the sports world reached such a consensus in predicting a championship matchup.

June will bring the NBA Finals trilogy rubber match between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors. Suggest otherwise, and become immediately at risk of being labeled as clueless as the front offices of the Sacramento Kings and Orlando Magic.

Post-All Star Break odds to win the NBA Championship

• Warriors: 1-to-2

• Cavaliers: 11-to-5

• Spurs: 8-to-1

• Rockets: 25-to-1

• Celtics: 25-to-1

• Clippers: 25-to-1

• Raptors: 30-to-1

• Wizards: 40-to-1

• Jazz: 80-to-1

By the betting odds, the chances of the rivalry-depending-on-whom-you-ask happening again has only increased as the NBA enters its final stretch of the regular season out of the All-Star Break.

Golden State is now a minus-200 (risking $2 to win $1) favorite to win the title at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook after going off at minus-150 before the season. Cleveland is next, down to plus-220 (risking $1 to win $2.20) after sitting at plus-250 on opening night in October.

Golden State vs. Cleveland III is offered at a price of minus-125 to occur at offshore sports books. That’s hovering right above a 50 percent chance when adjusting for hold percentage, a remarkable likelihood considering all the variables like injuries and upsets that can contribute to volatility.

And most people would probably scoff that the virtually unprecedented odds aren’t high enough.

Those who longed for another contending team or two pinned their hopes on trade season with stars like Jimmy Butler, Paul George, DeMarcus Cousins and Carmelo Anthony all looking potentially available last month. Cousins wound up the only one swapped by Thursday’s deadline, and he went to a team in the New Orleans Pelicans that needs a minor miracle just to reach the playoffs.

The Pelicans dropped from 300- to 150-to-1 in future odds with Cousins, but they’re currently 11th in the Western Conference. Basketball Reference calculates their postseason chances at 3.3 percent.

They’re far from the only team that’s failed to live up to expectations, as most expected to challenge the Warriors and Cavaliers have disappointed. Twelve teams were at below 100-to-1 in the futures before the season began, but it’s down to nine with the Thunder, Hawks, Knicks, Blazers and Pistons all dipping out.

The Rockets, from 100-to-1 to 25-to-1, and the Wizards, from 100-to-1 to 40-to-1, were the only teams that made major positive moves in the futures in the unofficial first half of the season.

And only one contender used trade season to strengthen by the odds — the Toronto Raptors. Toronto’s price slashed to 30-to-1 from 40-to-1 after acquiring Serge Ibaka from the Magic two weeks ago.

Some offshore sports books even adjusted the Raptors down to 25-to-1 after they landed P.J. Tucker from the Suns Thursday. Toronto made it known that it’s coming for Cleveland, which lost Kevin Love to a knee injury at the same time as the Ibaka trade, by strengthening its interior defense while improving spacing on offense.

Cleveland remains a high minus-400 to win the Eastern Conference, but that’s down from a high of minus-600. Toronto is a plus-800 third choice, down from a high of plus-1300.

The Raptors are still behind the Celtics (plus-600), which lead them by four games in the standings but decided to “stand pat” despite having the assets to make a trade at the deadline. If any teams can spoil the penciled-in finals matchup, it’s one of those two.

They fortuitously meet for the final time in the regular season tonight, with Toronto laying 3 points at home. It might quietly be the most intriguing game of the rest of the regular season with Golden State and Cleveland having wrapped up their season series — at least until June.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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