Las Vegas Sun

By Case Keefer

Mon, Apr 2, 2018 (2 a.m.)

To beat Villanova and win the national championship tonight in San Antonio, Michigan will need to pull the second or third biggest upset in the history of the title game.

In the last 35 years — since the tournament expanded to 52 teams — only one team has overcome a point spread of more than 7 points to cut down the nets at the Final Four. That was the 1988 Kansas Jayhawks, which defeated Oklahoma 83-79 as 8-point underdogs.

Arizona was a 7-point underdog in 1997 ahead of knocking off Kentucky 84-79 in overtime. Local sports books are split on tonight’s game, with some offering the Wolverines a 7-point underdogs to the Wildcats with others at 6.5. Either way, Michigan is facing an extremely tough challenge.

The Wolverines will need a historic performance to win their first national championship in 29 years.

Read below for Talking Points’ pick. The blog has gone 31-32-3 against the spread picking every game throughout the tournament.

Michigan plus-7 vs. Villanova At least the betting public is standing by its word. Gamblers annually malign teams that are defensively driven and offensively suspect, shortchanging their shots to win the title. That popular position was the cause of all the told-ya-sos that followed Virginia’s loss to UMBC in the round of 64, but seldom applied to a team that took the style to even more of an extreme — Michigan. The Wolverines have just barely done enough on offense all season. It’s their defense that’s not only been the catalyst for their current 14-game win streak but also kept them in position where such a run was possible in the first place. Bettors have been on board most of the way in the tournament, but aren’t buying defense being enough to beat Villanova. More than two-thirds of the tickets have come on Villanova, helping add the extra half-point to the spread in many sports books.

That’s no shock considering what Villanova did to Kansas Saturday at the Alamodome. The Wildcats drained a Final Four record 18 three-pointers — the over/under for both teams was 19.5 — to cover minus-5 practically the entire game in a 95-79 victory. A shooting performance like that would be difficult to repeat two nights later under any circumstance. It’s going to be near impossible versus Michigan. The Wolverines came into the tournament as the best team in the field at limiting opponents’ 3-point opportunities — they’ve allowed only 29.8 percent of an opponents’ field goals to be from 3 this year per kenpom.com — and have upheld that standing to reach the national championship game.

Villanova is going to have to score in other ways, and with the abundance of talent it has available, the Wildcats probably will. But it’s not going to be as easy as it’s looked through the rest of the postseason. Michigan is a pest to play because it not only limits open looks but also possessions with its deliberate pace. Every team the Wolverines have faced throughout the tournament has gone on a prolonged dry spell, with a pair of the droughts ultimately dooming Loyola Chicago in a 69-57 loss as 5.5-point underdogs in the semifinals. Michigan has barely shot better than 40 percent in its last two games, but should improve against a solid but unspectacular Villanova defense. The Wolverines’ offense won’t impede them from the title, and their defense just might lead them to it. The way they play should at minimum secure a cover. Villanova 72, Michigan 70.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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