Every once in a while, the Masters transcends its status as one of the biggest niche betting events of the year and turns into one of the biggest betting events of the year, period.
This year’s tournament shapes up as one of the gambling goliaths, and it’s almost entirely for one reason. Tiger Woods will be in the field for the first time in three years when the first round begins Thursday morning at Augusta National.
Woods’ presence alone would boost betting volume, but he multiplied it by becoming the favorite to win the tournament with a strong start to the 2018 season. Woods got as low as 8-to-1 to win his fifth career Masters, and first since 2005, after finishing second last month at the Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor, Fla.
He’s since shot back up to the 10- to 12-to-1 range around town, even as the bets rush in on golf’s most popular pro. Eleven percent of the bets wagered in Masters’ future odds at William Hill have come on Woods, with no other golfer higher than 6 percent.
Meanwhile, the unofficial chancellor of golf oddsmaking, Westgate Las Vegas Superbook manager Jeff Sherman, reports an already-record handle with Woods accounting for a 30 percent spike in action.
Sherman’s commitment to providing an extensive menu of wagering options will also likely contribute to cushioning the all-time high. Sherman released an eight-page packet of proposition wagers earlier this week.
Talking Points flipped through and found our five favorite wagers. Check them out below.
Tournament Matchup: Phil Mickelson Even money over Tiger Woods (minus-120)
Let’s fully embrace the throwback vibe, and toss some money on a rivalry that dominated golf last decade. Woods may have the hype, but Mickelson has the better chance to win the tournament, making it the wrong former champion who is favored. Mickelson has played even better than Woods this year, including a win in a World Golf Championships event in Mexico. Mickelson leads the tour in one-putt percentage, which is among the most important aspects to excelling at Augusta.
Tournament matchup: Ryan Moore Even money over Charley Hoffman (minus-120)
Call it the Rebel prop since it pairs two former UNLV greats. Hoffman is getting some attention as a sleeper going into the tournament based off of the historic 65-stroke round he managed on the opening day of last year’s Masters. That ignores the fact that he averaged a 75 over the next three days, and ended up finishing 2-over par for the weekend. Moore posted a 2-under to finish in the top 10. And Moore again enters this year in better form, with a pair of top 10 finishes in his last four tournaments.
Winning Score: Over 277.5
The winning score has been higher than this in five of the last six years, and most of those tournaments played out in fairer conditions. The elements could turn into a factor this year, with cold morning temperatures forecasted as well as rain on the weekend. Augusta is already a challenging course without the added challenge of a cold and wet course. Most bettors’ first inclination is to lean “under” in the most prestigious tournament of the year, but that consistently creates value on the other side.
Justin Thomas to finish in the top 20 at minus-200
It’s rare to find one of the best golfers in the world so overlooked heading into the Masters. Thomas is creeping up on Dustin Johnson for the top spot in the World Golf Rankings after winning the PGA Tour Player of the Year award, and yet few are picking him to prevail in his second straight major. This is a profitable bet as long as Thomas has better than a two-thirds chance of finishing in the top 20. His actual probability might be closer to 75 percent.
Bubba Watson to not finish in the top 20 at plus-120
Watson is the only player to win the Masters twice in the last decade, but that doesn’t guarantee any further success. The fan favorite is not currently in the form that he was in for his victories in 2012 and 2014. He’s particularly struggled lately with his putting, which can be an unforgiving problem at the Masters.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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