Vegas Play of the Day: Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues

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L.E. Baskow

Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Colin Miller (6) and Colorado Avalanche left wing Blake Comeau (14) battle for a puck during their game at the T-Mobile Arena on Friday, Oct. 27, 2017.

Thu, Feb 8, 2018 (11:50 a.m.)

We’ve entered the fourth season of the annual South Point-lined Play of the Day competition, effective July 1.

Starting bankrolls have reset to $10,000, with the maximum bet being to win $1,000 and the minimum wager $300. Ray Brewer won back-to-back titles in the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons, after Taylor Bern prevailed in 2014-15.

Colorado Avalanche plus-160 at Saint Louis Blues: $300 to win $480

It’s fairly obvious which NHL team has proven the most profitable bet in the league this season — the Golden Knights, of course. But the Avalanche are a close second, as a bettor would be up $1,400 if he or she placed $100 wager on Colorado in every game.

They’ve been such money-makers because lines like this subsist. The Avalanche deserve to be an underdog at the Scottrade Center tonight; they don’t deserve to be nearly this big of an underdog.

By almost any metric, St. Louis and Colorado are evenly matched. Colorado’s scoring margin is actually a pair of goals better than that of St. Louis, despite having played three fewer games.

But no matter how often the Avalanche prove they’re a competitive group this season, skepticism prevails. That leaves lines like this, where St. Louis is a minus-180 favorite where it shouldn’t be any more than minus-140.

Colorado’s chances to win should fall somewhere around 45 percent tonight, yet the line implies only a 37 percent chance. That’s about as big of an overlay as a bettor can expect to find on the NHL.

With odds like that, the Avalanche might not be done delivering cash in the sports books yet.

Current Standings: Granger (15-12, $12,459), Brewer (23-20, $10,190), Keefer (21-20-1, $9,726), Grimala (9-18, $3,515)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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