Las Vegas Sun

By Case Keefer

Wed, Mar 14, 2018 (3:27 p.m.)

The doomsayers are already out in full force.

If it wasn’t enough that NCAA Tournament overall No. 1 seed Virginia fostered natural distrust from its recent struggles in March, it took another hit on Selection Sunday.

The tournament selection committee connived against the Cavaliers, the cries went. That was the easiest way to explain Virginia getting stuck in the same half of the South Region with No. 4 seed Arizona and No. 5 seed Kentucky.

Here’s an alternate explanation that cuts out the conspiracy theory: Arizona and Kentucky aren’t as overpowering as the current perception leads to believe. The narrative in the South Region can be seen in many ways like a reverse of the one in the East Region.

Here’s recency bias working in favor of a pair of teams.

Within 15 hours last weekend, the two Wildcats had wrapped up their respective conference tournaments with three wins and three covers in three days. The successful runs more or less appeared to eliminate the distresses that may have dogged Kentucky and Arizona earlier in the season.

And yes, there was distress on both sides.

Arizona has found itself at the center of the FBI investigation into college basketball recruiting since the preseason. The situation got a second wind in February when reports linking coach Sean Miller and a $100,000 payment to star freshman DeAndre Ayton surfaced just as the Wildcats slogged through a 3-3 straight-up and against the spread stretch.

Kentucky had a simultaneous four-game straight-up, five-game against the spread losing streak as its projected tournament seed stumbled.

Arizona stood by Ayton and eventually Miller, which enabled them to steady the play on the court as the former pieced together four double-doubles in the last five games. Kentucky endured the growing pains of a starting lineup with five freshmen that’s since seemed to jell behind the offense of sharp-shooting guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kevin Knox and the defense of P.J. Washington and Hamidou Diallo.

The betting market usually gravitates towards teams with strong pedigrees and hot finishes, so it’s no surprise Arizona and Kentucky are getting a ton of play. Aside from Gonzaga — which is 5-to-2 to win the West Region — the two Wildcats are offered at the lowest odds of any No. 4 or No. 5 seed to reach the Final Four.

They’re both ahead of No. 3 seed Tennessee, which was the SEC’s most consistent team throughout the year despite not starting as great as Auburn and not finishing as flashy as Kentucky. No. 2 seed Cincinnati has held as the second-choice to come out of the region behind Virginia, but betting action on the Bearcats has been as nonexistent as it’s been on the Volunteers.

The bottom half of the South might as well be invisible. The focus is on the top two pods, as the question on whether Virginia can reach its first Final Four under Bennett has turned to a question of whether it can even reach a second Elite Eight.

Check below for picks and analysis of every first-round South Region game. Picks are listed in order of confidence, with lines the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas. Talking Points will pick every game against the spread throughout the tournament.

No. 12 seed Davidson plus-5.5 vs. No. 5 seed Kentucky Yes, Kentucky won the SEC Tournament to end the season, but on the year, it’s also had lopsided losses to teams like UCLA and Missouri, which are quietly no better than this first-round opponent. Davidson is the best three-point shooting team in the tournament percentage-wise, and Kentucky ranks 307th in the nation in allowing three-point attempts. Most of Kentucky’s opponents have shot poorly from outside; Davidson won’t.

No. 7 seed UNR pick’em vs. No. 10 seed Texas Forget the names on the jerseys and the reputations of the two programs; the Wolf Pack are more talented than the Longhorns. This is not a scrappy mid-major overachiever; this is a team that can compete with anyone behind an experienced coach in Eric Musselman and a plethora of offensive threats including Caleb Martin and Jordan Caroline.

No. 8 seed Creighton minus-1.5 vs. No. 9 seed Kansas State The Wildcats are beaten-up — its two leading scorers, Dean Wade and Barry Brown, are expected to play but contributed a total of one minute in the Wildcats’ last game — but even at full strength, their offense is erratic. The Bluejays operate at a much higher level consistently behind Marcus Foster, who averages 20 points per game and will be the best player on the floor.

No. 13 seed Buffalo plus-9 vs. No. 4 seed Arizona Three weeks ago, the betting market had left Arizona for dead as lines stretched to bet against it amid recruiting allegations. Now, the Wildcats are suddenly a popular Final Four sleeper pick. That’s the type of perception shift that makes a team valuable fade material. Freshman force of nature DeAndre Ayton will produce big numbers, but otherwise, Buffalo matches up well with Arizona particularly with a shrewd and experienced backcourt.

No. 11 seed Loyola-Chicago plus-1.5 vs. No. 6 seed Miami Loyola-Chicago is drawing close to two-thirds of the action at sports books, which always makes for a red flag. Popularly-bet underdogs are traditionally not a wise investment, but it’s easy to understand what many are seeing Loyola. The Ramblers rolled through the tough Missouri Valley Conference, and have worked towards this opportunity for years. Miami slowed late in the season, going 7-4 straight-up, 3-8 against the spread since losing point guard Bruce Brown to an injury.

No. 3 seed Tennessee minus-12 vs. No. 14 seed Wright State Wright State already struggles to score without having to play one of the top defensive teams in the tournament. The Volunteers will have plenty of bodies to throw at Grant Benzinger, who’s the lone perimeter offensive standout for the Raiders. Wright State might be mis-seeded, as it would be an underdog to a pair of teams seeded at No. 15 and No. 16, Georgia State and Penn.

No. 2 seed Cincinnati minus-13 vs. No. 15 seed Georgia State It’s a misconception that the Bearcats are anemic offensively. Their entire starting lineup is capable of going off in any given game, and that explosiveness has led to a number of blowout victories. Cincinnati is 10-6 against the spread this season when laying this many points.

No. 1 seed Virginia minus-21 vs. No. 16 seed Maryland-Baltimore County The Cavaliers have been remarkably consistent under coach Tony Bennett, even maintaining their lethal efficiency when turning over their entire roster. The loss of freshman sixth man De’Andre Hunter, therefore, should be something they can handle. It might be a concern, but not a big enough one to pull this line down from minus-22.5 where it was earlier in the week.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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