Super Bowl pick: Why Rams-Patriots will stay under the points total

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Steve Marcus

Gamblers make proposition bets on the 2019 Super Bowl at the Westgate SuperBook Thursday, Jan. 24, 2019.

Sun, Feb 3, 2019 (2 a.m.)

The fifth season of the annual Play of the Day betting competition between the Sun’s sports staff is now under way, effective July 1.

Bankrolls start at $10,000 for each of the four participants, with the objective to increase it as much as possible over the next year. The minimum daily wager is $300, with a $200 penalty assessed for failing to place a bet on an assigned day.

Past winners are Case Keefer in 2017-2018, Ray Brewer in 2016-2017 and 2015-2016, and Taylor Bern in 2014-2015.

Super Bowl 53, Total Under 56.5, $880 to win $800: This is the ninth Super Bowl appearance in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick Patriots dynasty. The past appearances clearly shed light on how the Patriots will attack the Rams — conservatively, especially early in the game.

New England has just three first-quarter points — a field goal last year against the Eagles — in those past eight appearances. Sure, some of the previous Super Bowls have flown over the points total. But with limited offense in the first-quarter, a lot has to go right in the final three quarters to go over the points total of 56.5.

The Rams were the second-highest scoring team in the NFL during the season at 32.9 points per game. But they are also expected to take a conservative approach early in the game to give its players — many of whom are playing in their first Super Bowl — reps in the world’s most-watched sporting event.

The Rams’ defensive line with Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Su should get plenty of pressure on Brady and the New England offense, which will also play to the under. More important, oddsmakers inflated the total by a point or two because the general public — the driving force in Super Bowl wagering — mostly places a parlay of the favorite and the total over.

Current Standings: Keefer (26-21-2, $12,226), Brewer (16-15-2, $10,690), Emerson (2-3, $6,987), Grimala (15-14-1, $5,150)

Ray Brewer can be reached at 702-990-2662 or [email protected]. Follow Ray on Twitter at twitter.com/raybrewer21

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