NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Saturday’s games

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Fans cheer as Murray State’s Ja Morant (12) celebrates a basket during the second half of a first round men’s college basketball game against Marquette in the NCAA Tournament, Thursday, March 21, 2019, in Hartford, Conn.

Sat, Mar 23, 2019 (2 a.m.)

Welcome to Morant Madness.

The first full day of the NCAA Tournament featured a somewhat-surprising star, a sparsely-recruited guard from rural South Carolina who couldn’t dunk as recently as two years ago. OK, in fairness, everyone knew Murray State sophomore Ja Morant as a force to be reckoned with after he worked himself into a top-flight NBA prospect in the regular season.

But few anticipated the show he put on in the Racers’ 85-68 win over Marquette as 3.5-point underdogs Thursday afternoon. Morant became the eighth player in history to record an NCAA Tournament triple-double, with 17 points, 16 assists and 11 rebounds, and lead Murray State to one of the only upsets of the day.

There were just two other outright upsets— and none with higher than a No. 10 seed involved — on a day where Morant seized the spotlight. Thursday’s winners return today in the round of 32, where everyone is looking up to Morant in terms of attention as he attempts to deliver his team to the Sweet 16 as 5-point underdogs against Florida State.

Check below for Talking Points’ picks on every game, listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Through the round of 64, the blog sits at 18-17-1 against the spread picking every tournament game with top-confidence plays having gone 4-0.

No. 6 seed Maryland plus-2.5 vs. No. 3 seed LSU With its size, athleticism and defense, Maryland is a bad matchup for LSU from the onset — and that’s before adjusting for the Tigers’ recurring second-half struggles with coach Will Wade on leave. Naz Reid and Kavell Bigby-Williams might not be enough to overcome the handicap against Maryland’s interior defense.

No. 7 seed Florida plus-6.5 vs. No. 2 seed Michigan The Wolverines’ biggest advantage rests in their ability to out-scheme opponents. That edge will be minimized against the similarly well-coached, smart-playing Gators. Florida also remains one of the most undervalued teams in the tournament by virtue of having gone 5-8 in games decided by six points or less this season.

No. 1 seed Gonzaga minus-13 vs. No. 9 seed Baylor Baylor’s defense has been too fleeting to rely on it to slow Gonzaga’s cadre of weapons. The Bears can’t count on shooting 47 percent from the 3-point line and scoring 1.3 points per possession like they did against Syracuse forever.

No. 3 seed Purdue minus-4 vs. No. 6 seed Villanova Everyone bet against Purdue on Thursday, and despite the Boilermakers covering in a 61-48 win over Old Dominion as 12-point favorites, everyone is betting against them again. Early reports indicate three out of every four tickets coming in on the Villanova, but it’s important to note this is not the Wildcats team that won last year’s national championship. They’re young and without a star, unlike Purdue, which can rely on All-American Carsen Edwards.

No. 2 seed Michigan State minus-10 vs. No. 10 seed Minnesota While on the subject of 3-point shooting performances unlikely to repeat, it’s highly improbable that the Gophers continue to hit better than 40 percent from beyond the arc like they did to upset Louisville 86-76 in the first round. This is a slight buy-low on Michigan State, which may have given more points if it didn’t struggle with Bradley as 18-pint favorites in a 76-65 win.

No. 5 seed Auburn minus-2 vs. No. 4 seed Kansas The Jayhawks grade out as ever-so-slightly less efficient than the Tigers on the year — but a significant portion of those numbers harken to a time before Kansas was hamstrung by injuries and absences. With the teams in their current forms, Auburn could be a larger favorite.

No. 12 seed Murray State plus-5 vs. No. 4 seed Florida State Rare talents like Morant are difficult to account for on the betting line, hence how the Racers have posted a 20-10 record against the spread on the year. Hard to feel fully confident in the Murray State side considering this number would have been slightly higher before the round of 64, but five is a lot in a game that should come down to the final minutes.

No. 2 seed Kentucky minus-5 vs. No. 7 seed Wofford No real opinion here, as the number looks tight, but it’s easier to envision a Kentucky blowout than a Wofford upset. The Wildcats’ length could bother the Terriers, which didn’t stay within single digits of the four best teams it faced during the season — North Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi State and Oklahoma.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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