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The number of games decreases; the amount of betting options stays about the same.
That’s the landscape for the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, where sports books compensate for the lack of wall-to-wall action by being more aggressive posting proposition wagers. Many sports books will have prop menus available for every Sweet 16 game over the next two days.
The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook opened six props on each game earlier the week with half of them over/under player point totals. There are no surprises at the top of the board.
Duke superstar Zion Williamson has the highest total at 25.5 points, while teammate R.J. Barrett is in the same range at 22.5 points. Purdue’s Carsen Edwards, the leading scorer of the tournament so far, is at 23.5 points.
Two totals that stand out to Talking Points are Virginia’s Kyle Guy over 14.5 points and Florida State’s Terrance Mann under 12.5 points. Those are bonus leans to go with the blog’s continued series picking every tournament game against the spread.
Check out picks for every sweet 16 game below, listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas. Talking Points’ current tournament record stands at 27-23-1 with top-confidence plays 6-0.
No. 1 seed Virginia minus-8.5 vs. No. 12 seed Oregon Virginia’s shooting woes last week are more of an selling point than a detriment for this play. The Cavaliers have proven they’re a highly proficient outside shooting team throughout the year, meaning it’s likely they’ll see some positive regression and start to see more 3-pointers fall. Regardless of Oregon’s impressive 10-game winning and covering streak, this is the best team left in the tournament against the worst team left in the tournament and deserves a slightly higher spread.
No. 5 seed Auburn plus-5 vs. No. 1 seed North Carolina Auburn — not Oregon — should be regarded as the hottest team in the nation as it hasn’t lost in a month despite facing an extremely difficult schedule. The Tigers have made a leap, one the betting market has yet to properly quantify. They also thrive in transition so it’s unlikely that the Tar Heels will overwhelm with their speed.
No. 1 seed Gonzaga minus-7 vs. No. 4 seed Florida State Selling high on the Seminoles, which have been playing above their heads on offense during their postseason hot streak. That’s going to be difficult to maintain against a revenge-minded Gonzaga team that will push the pace and get enough possessions to make covering this number manageable.
No. 3 seed Houston plus-3 vs. No. 2 seed Kentucky With a deep backcourt rotation leading the Cougars and P.J. Washington, if he plays, likely well below 100 percent for the Wildcats, the talent gap isn’t as wide as perceived. Houston may also be the toughest defensive team Kentucky has faced all year.
No. 3 seed LSU plus-6 vs. No. 2 seed Michigan State Preferred play is LSU minus-3 in the first half, as the Tigers have consistently overwhelmed opponents early before coaching issues plague their closeouts. But this feels like too many points for a team as athletic as the Tigers for nearly two out of every three bets — at least at William Hill sports books — to be coming in on the Spartans.
No. 3 seed Texas Tech plus-2 vs. No. 2 seed Michigan Best approach may be looking towards the under 126.5 as this projects as a tactical affair between two of the best coaches in the nation, Michigan’s John Beilein and Texas Tech’s Chris Beard. They’re two coaches no one should seek betting against — just look at their combined 10-4 against the spread record in the tournament the last two years.
No. 4 Virginia Tech plus-7.5 vs. No. 1 Duke Feels like a game where Duke could easily regain its moxie after performing below expectations in the last two rounds, but the asking price is too high. Even after the Blue Devils’ miraculous escape in a 77-76 win over UCF, their point spreads remain inflated by a point or two.
No. 3 seed Purdue plus-1.5 vs. No. 2 seed Tennessee Totally torn on this one, as the teams look evenly matched with Tennessee more consistent but Purdue holding the higher ceiling. While the Boilermakers aren’t going to continue to hit nearly half of their three-pointers like in the first two tournament games, the Volunteers’ season-long weakness for defending beyond the arc makes taking the points a better proposition.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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