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Two teams will secure one of the biggest wins in their school’s history today and advance to a rare Final Four.
There’s a dearth of blueblood, powerhouse programs in this pair of Elite 8 games, which makes the matchups feel all the more significant. One team, Texas Tech, has never reached a Final Four. Two others, Virginia and Purdue, face off in dual attempts to break a national-semifinal drought of more than 30 years.
Gonzaga, which plays Texas Tech at 3:09 in this afternoon’s first game, may feel like the odd one out, but lest anyone forget, the Bulldogs have only ever reached one Final Four. Until the Bulldogs reached the national championship game two years ago and lost to North Carolina, they were considered perennially cursed or underachieving in March.
These games couldn’t feel bigger, and Talking Points hopes to rise to the occasion.
Find the blog’s against the spread picks on each game, listed in rough order of confidence, below. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas. Talking Points sits at 32-26-2 picking every tournament game and 6-1 in top-confidence plays.
No. 3 seed Texas Tech plus-4 vs. No. 1 seed Gonzaga The Red Raiders have moved into nearly unprecedented territory in terms of all-time great defenses. After holding Michigan to .71 points per possession in a stifling 63-44 victory as 2-point underdogs, Texas Tech’s adjusted defensive efficiency on kenpom.com moved to 84.4 to tie the undefeated 2015 Kentucky team as the best in the last decade. It is a chore to score on this team, as Gonzaga will soon find out. If anyone can manage, it’s Brandon Clarke — who rivals Zion Williamson as the most efficient offensive player in the nation — and the Zags. This is the top power-rated Gonzaga team ever, and that’s saying something for a program as consistent as it’s proven. These are two special teams, but only one is getting a load of points on the betting line.
No. 1 seed Virginia minus-4 vs. No. 3 seed Purdue Most No. 1 seeds see their point spreads gradually inflate over the course of the tournament if they make it all the way to the regional final. It’s been the opposite for the Cavaliers. Play this game at the beginning at the tournament and Virginia is laying closer to 6 points. There are legitimate reasons for the decline, of course. Virginia’s shooting slump sustained into its Sweet 16 win over Oregon, as it went 9-for-33 from beyond the arc to drop its 3-point shooting percentage below 29 percent for the tournament. Purdue, meanwhile, can’t miss and is just below 44 percent through three games. These things tend to even out though. Can’t make a call not to panic about Virginia’s shooting one moment and then follow suit the next. If there’s a blowout today, it will be in this game.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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