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Today’s pair of Elite 8 games makes for the type of slate that turns bettors into amateur medical researchers.
Determining the severity and effects on a series of injuries holds the utmost importance in handicapping the final two contests that will determine the Final Four. No question looms larger than how Auburn will respond after losing Chuma Okeke to a torn ACL in a 97-80 upset victory over North Carolina where he scored a team-high 20 points.
But at least the Tigers won’t have to take on a fully-healthy opponent. Kentucky had the most scrutinized ailment of the tournament before this week after leading scorer P.J. Washington missed the first two rounds with a foot.
Washington returned and scored 16 points in a 62-58 victory over Houston on Friday but remains below 100 percent. There’s no guarantee he’ll be able to maintain that level of play against Auburn.
The second Elite 8 game could hinge fully upon whether Cam Reddish returns for Duke. The Blue Devils star freshman was a surprise scratch ahead of a 75-74 win over Virginia Tech and will reportedly be a game time decision against Michigan State.
The Spartans have the least to worry about from an injury standpoint, but aren’t completely unscathed. Nick Ward hurt his hand in the 80-63 Sweet 16 victory over LSU, but is expected to play versus Duke.
All of this makes complicates picking the games, but Talking Points will move forward.
Check out the blog’s picks for both games below. Picks are listed in rough order of confidence with lines the best on the chosen side currently available in Las Vegas. The record for the tournament stands at 34-28-2 with top-confidence plays 7-1.
No. 1 seed Duke minus-2 vs. No 2 seed Michigan State Talking Points has faded Duke every step of the way in the tournament. The blog picked against the Blue Devils in each of the last two rounds, ran a story before the games began detailing why they were overvalued and picked Michigan State to win the East Region. And yet…this seems to have gone a little too far. At any other time of the season, Duke would lay at least 4 points to Michigan State. The Blue Devils been fortunate to eke out wins against UCF and Virginia Tech, and Reddish’s absence could be impactful, but they still have more high-end talent and potential than the Spartans. Sure, Duke has underperformed in the tournament but concluding that means it will also do so the rest of the way is dangerous. It’s tough going against the first reaction, and make no mistake, Michigan State looked like a great bet in this potential Elite 8 matchup ever since the field was set. But that was when the line would have been at least Duke minus-4.5 and probably higher. It’s a big move that makes the favorite the only side worth considering.
No. 2 seed Kentucky minus-4 vs. No. 5 seed Auburn Beyond the injuries, gamblers face a familiar quandary with this game: Do they take the better team or the hotter team? On the year as a whole, there’s a little doubt the Wildcats have been better. They’ve beaten the Tigers twice — and covered in both instances. But even though Kentucky has covered in every game in the tournament — Auburn is 2-1 versus the number — and has a higher point differential, few would argue they’re playing better than Auburn. The Tigers, which have faced a significantly tougher tournament path, have now won 11 straight including two wins over a Tennessee team that beat Kentucky twice in the same span. But it’s hard to say how they respond to play without Okeke, who’s arguably been their best player for the last week and a half. Washington may very well be limited for the Wildcats, but they’re deeper and more accustomed to playing without him. It’s just a guess — this line is difficult to handicap — but Okeke’s injury may have merited another point or two on the line.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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