Vegas Play of the Day: Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns

Image

Ron Schwane / AP

Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield celebrates after scoring a 2-point conversion during the second half of an NFL football game against the New York Jets, Thursday, Sept. 20, 2018, in Cleveland.

Sun, Nov 10, 2019 (2 a.m.)

The sixth season of the annual Play of the Day betting competition between the Sun's sports staff is now under way, effective July 1.

Bankrolls start at $10,000 for each of the four participants, with the objective to increase it as much as possible over the next year. The minimum daily wager is $300, with a $200 penalty assessed for failing to place a bet on an assigned day.

Past winners are Case Keefer in 2018-19 and 2017-2018, Ray Brewer in 2016-2017 and 2015-2016, and Taylor Bern in 2014-2015.

Cleveland Browns minus-3 Even money vs. Buffalo Bills: $1,000 to win $1,000

Repeat after me: Win-loss records hold no predictive value when handicapping NFL games. I've just heard too many people cite the Bills' 6-2 straight-up record as a reason to back them against the 2-6 Browns this week.

That holds no bearing here. In fact, this might be a hot take, but give the Bills the Browns' schedule so far, and I highly doubt they're any better than 2-6.

Cleveland has been set up to fail, but that's coming to an end. Their schedule is opening up and they should be competitive for the rest of the year.

Now is the time to buy low. Five of the Bills' six wins came against teams worse than the Browns, which still have the same roster everyone was tripping over themselves to bet coming into the season.

Personnel-wise, this is a mismatch. And it's a mismatch in the Browns' favor.

Of course, coaching could ruin everything. Freddie Kitchens has undoubtedly been the worst coach in the NFL so far this season, but I don't think even he can ruin this one.

Look for the Browns' pass rush to get after Josh Allen and force him into his usual mistakes. Look for Nick Chubb to have a big game against a sketchy rush defense.

Look for Cleveland to win by a touchdown.

Current Standings: Grimala (10-3, $11,545), Keefer (17-12-1, $9,945), Brewer (8-9, $7,975), Emerson (8-12, $7,960),

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Back to top

SHARE

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy