College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 12 game

Image

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Baylor offensive lineman Xavier Newman (55) celebrates with fans following an NCAA college football game against TCU, Saturday, Nov. 9, 2019, in Fort Worth, Texas. Baylor won 29-23 in triple overtime.

Thu, Nov 14, 2019 (9:45 p.m.)

The SEC and Big Ten have stayed at the center of the college football world all season as the two best conferences in the nation.

The Pac-12 has gotten some attention, even if it's only been through speculation on whether it could break a two-year streak of getting left out of the College Football Playoff. It's been a rough year for the ACC but, well, at least it has Clemson.

That leaves the Big 12 as the truly overlooked power five conference — by both fans and apparently the CFP committee. Fans of the midwestern league could not have been happy with the latest reveal of the CFP rankings Tuesday night.

Baylor rates as the lowest undefeated Power Five team in the history of the poll at this point of the season, sitting at No. 13 despite starting 9-0. The committee slotted Oklahoma No. 10, but according to Las Vegas bookmakers, the Sooners have a case to be much higher — even potentially inside the top five.

The Big 12 looks likely to be left out of this year's four-team playoff, unless one of the two aforementioned teams can both go on a run and shift perception starting Saturday night when they play each other. Oklahoma is a 10-point road favorite over Baylor in what looks like the most significant game of week 12, even though a casual football fan may not realize it.

Such is the plight of the Big 12. I have a play on the Oklahoma at Baylor game below, along with picks on the entire slate of college football.

I'm looking to stay strong and build on a 314-224-13 record through 11 weeks of the season — 51-37-2 on plays, 84-44-2 on leans and 179-143-9 on guesses.

Read below for all of this week's picks, labeled in three separate confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

AAC

Tulane minus-5.5 at Temple, over/under: 54.5. The Owls are only outscoring opponents by one point per game, so it's a minor miracle that their record stands at 6-3 overall. The Green Wave are always one of the best prepared teams in the nation under coach Willie Fritz, an advantage that will be maximized off of a bye week. Play: Tulane minus-5.5.

Memphis minus-10 at Houston, over/under: 69. Houston has one of the worst defenses in the nation, ranking No. 127th in giving up 6.8 yards per play against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. Memphis quarterback Brady White will have a field day against the Cougars' secondary. Play: Memphis minus-10.

Cincinnati minus-14 at South Florida, over/under: 47. The Bearcats are extremely well coached and talented, but don't have the statistical profile to match their 8-1 straight-up record. South Florida running back Jordan Conkrite will be the most explosive playmaker on the field. Lean: South Florida plus-14.

ACC

Syracuse plus-10.5 at Duke, over/under: 54. Having been outgained by at least 1 yard per play in three straight games, Duke is in a free fall. Syracuse hasn't been much better, but figures to be healthier coming out of a bye week. Lean: Syracuse plus-10.5.

Wake Forest plus-34.5 at Clemson, over/under: 59.5. Yes, the Tigers were on the road but they gave a point less than this against North Carolina State last week. That makes no sense considering Wake Forest pounded NC State 44-10 two weeks ago to prove sheer superiority. This is too many points against a solid, explosive Demon Deacons squad. Lean: Wake Forest plus-34.5.

Louisville minus-4 at North Carolina State, over/under: 55.5. In direct opposition to backing Louisville, backing NC State has been a recipe to bleed cash. But the Wolfpack still have the more talented roster and are catching the Cardinals at a good time on back-to-back road games with offensive line injuries. Guess: NC State plus-4.

Virginia Tech minus-6 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 50.5. These might be the two most improved teams in the conference from the start of the season, as they've both shook off struggles to play much better in the last few weeks. The Hokies arguably haven't played well enough to merit this large of a number on the road, though. Guess: Georgia Tech plus-6.

Big Ten

Michigan State plus-13.5 at Michigan, over/under: 44. Both teams are defensively-driven and play at a deliberate pace, making points more valuable. Michigan State also took another inexplicable loss last week — 37-34 as 14.5-point favorites against Illinois — to further downgrade its power rating before than statistical measures would indicate is necessary. Play: Michigan State plus-13.5.

Minnesota plus-3 at Iowa, over/under: 44.5. It seems like a good spot for Iowa with Minnesota in its toughest road game of the year, but handicapping based off of a feel is a losing strategy. The numbers fall much more in the favor of Minnesota, which has been a full yard per play more efficient than Iowa on the year. Play: Minnesota plus-3.

Indiana plus-14.5 at Penn State, over/under: 54.5. This line appears adjusted by a few points from Indiana losing quarterback Michael Penix Jr. for the year, but it shouldn't be. There's virtually no drop-off to former starter Peyton Ramsey, who's also had the benefit of a bye week to get ready to take over. Guess: Indiana plus-14.5.

Ohio State minus-52 at Rutgers, over/under: 61.5. Ohio State's only non-cover came in a game where it pulled its starters in the second half. The Buckeyes can beat the Scarlet Knights as badly as they want to. Guess: Ohio State minus-52.

Wisconsin minus-14.5 at Nebraska, over/under: 51.5. This would have been a fair line a couple weeks ago, but defensive injuries are mounting for the Badgers as they play in their eighth straight game. The Cornhuskers, meanwhile, are coming off of a bye. Guess: Nebraska plus-14.5.

Massachusetts plus-40.5 at Northwestern, over/under: 56.5. There are two historically terrible teams in college football this year — Massachusetts and Akron. The only cover either has managed is when they played each other and the Minutemen won 37-29 as 9-point underdogs. I'm announcing a moratorium on backing either for the rest of the season. Guess: Northwestern minus-40.5.

Big 12

Oklahoma minus-10 at Baylor, over/under: 67.5. Buy low on Oklahoma, which is averaging an obscene national-leading 9 yards per play and seem to be forgotten after a fluky loss at Kansas State and near-escape against a similarly underrated Iowa State. In the same amount of Big 12 games, Oklahoma's scoring margin in 64 points better than Baylor's. Play: Oklahoma minus-10.

Texas plus-7 at Iowa State, over/under: 66. Texas has overachieved this season considering it's at negative-0.1 net yards per play and has gone 3-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown. At 1.8 net yard per play and 1-4 in games decided by less than a touchdown, Iowa State has underachieved, and is thus undervalued. Lean: Iowa State minus-7.

TCU minus-3 at Texas Tech, over/under: 55.5. Having gone 0-4 in games decided by less than a touchdown, TCU might be the best 4-5 team in the country. It may be a new coach at Texas Tech with Matt Wells, but it's the same defensive problems as always. Lean: TCU minus-3.

West Virginia plus-13.5 at Kansas State, over/under: 47.5. It only took nine games for Kansas State's Chris Klieman, who should be considered for national coach of the year honors, to make my list of coaches not to bet against. Despite a talent disadvantage, the new coach has out-schemed virtually every opponent and pocketed four straight covers. Guess: Kansas State minus-13.5.

Kansas plus-17 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 67.5. Oklahoma State's offense has been outstanding all season, and now it's defense has started to come along in two straight wins over Iowa State and TCU. There's a hazard of a backdoor cover, but Oklahoma State should lead by this many points in the second half of the game. Guess: Oklahoma State minus-17.

Conference USA

Louisiana Tech plus-55 at Marshall, over/under: 57. Louisiana Tech's offense has overwhelmed virtually every conference opponent it's faced, and it's hard to see Marshall being any different. In a likely high-scoring game, Marshall might not have the offensive explosiveness to keep up. Len: Marshall plus-3.5.

UTEP plus-17.5 at UAB, over/under: 44.5. The Blazers are bullies, beating up on overmatched teams but folding quickly when encountering a team that can punch back. The Miners are squarely in the former category. Guess: UAB minus-17.5.

Rice plus-14.5 at Middle Tennessee, over/under: 47.5. Rice is so desperate that it's juggled between four quarterbacks in its last two games. Middle Tennessee is in much more of a rhythm behind improving sophomore quarterback Asher O'Hara. Guess: Middle Tennessee minus-14.5.

Southern Miss minus-16.5 at UTSA, over/under: 52. Old Dominion. Rice. UTEP. Incarnte Word. That's a comprehensive list of the teams UTSA has beaten this year. You won't find a less impressive four-win team in the country. Guess: Southern Miss minus-16.5.

Independents

Navy plus-7.5 at Notre Dame, over/under: 53.5. The perceived gap between these teams is actually nonexistent. Navy rates No. 21 in Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings, one spot ahead of Notre Dame, meaning this spread is at least four points too high. Play: Navy plus-7.5.

MAC

Central Michigan plus-2.5 at Ball State, over/under: 59.5. These teams are dead even — Ball State is No. 88 in F/+ to Central Michigan's No. 89 — meaning this is a perfect line. Standard homefield advantage in the MAC is worth 2.5 points. Guess: Central Michigan plus-2.5.

Mountain West

Fresno State plus-1 at San Diego State, over/under: 43.5. The Bulldogs' offense has confounded the typically dominant San Diego State defense ever since Jeff Tedford arrived as coach, piling up nearly 400 yards in a pair of wins and covers. With Fresno State's young offense having gotten progressively better throughout the season, it should be more of the same this year. Lean: Fresno State plus-1.

Air Force minus-10.5 at Colorado State, over/under: 63.5. The edge for Colorado State's typical home field advantage should be cut down here with neighboring Air Force also accustomed to playing in the altitude. And the Falcons do it significantly more efficiently. Lean: Air Force minus-10.5.

Hawaii minus-7 at UNLV, over/under: 73.5. Hawaii rates third in the nation in passing-play percentage, and UNLV's defensive backfield remains sketchy. UNLV's offense has gotten better but hasn't yet kept up in a shootout. Guess: Hawaii minus-7.

New Mexico plus-27.5 at Boise State, over/under: 59.5. Opportunities to fade Bob Davie, who's 42-53 against the spread at New Mexico, are dwindling with the coach likely to be fired at the end of the year. It would be a shame not to take advantage for old time's sake. Guess: Boise State minus-27.5.

Wyoming plus-5 at Utah State, over/under: 50. This number looks fair based on both teams' statistical profiles, but Wyoming is not in a beneficial situation. The Cowboys are playing in their second straight road game, having fallen 20-17 in overtime at Boise State last week. Guess: Utah State minus-5.

Pac-12

Stanford plus-10.5 at Washington State, over/under: 63. Don't let coach Mike Leach's biweekly viral rants fool you: He's still got a very good team at Washington State. A Stanford secondary allowing 7.8 yards per passing attempt will struggle with the Cougars' Air Raid. Play: Washington State minus-10.5.

Arizona plus-27.5 at Oregon, over/under: 68.5. Yes, Oregon slaughtered USC on the road their last time out but the Ducks showed a lot of vulnerability in a pair of relatively lucky wins over Washington and Washington State in the prior weeks. They're being priced as one of the best teams in the nation, and I don't think it's justified. Lean: Arizona plus-27.5.

Arizona State minus-2.5 at Oregon State, over/under: 56.5. The Sundevils are being downgraded for a poor performance at USC last week, but they were without quarterback Jayden Daniels and battled back in the second half. This spread would have been higher than a touchdown before their current three-game losing streak. Guess: Arizona State minus-2.5.

USC minus-6.5 at California, over/under: 48.5. Cal's offense had their first — only? — strong performance of the year in last week's 33-20 win over Washington State as 8.5-point underdogs. I hate betting against the well-coached Golden Bears but there'ss nothing to indicate that they're breakout is sustainable as this line seems to suggest. Guess: USC minus-6.5.

UCLA plus-22 at Utah, over/under: 51.5. Now at the top of their standing in the market, all value is expunged on the Utes. UCLA is also on a winning streak — three straight victories and covers as opposed to Utah's five consecutive in each category — but not getting near the same support. Guess: UCLA plus-22.

SEC

LSU minus-21 at Ole Miss, over/under: 65.5. LSU appears to have come out of the Alabama win with relatively few injuries and plays a style — uptempo with high-percentage passes from runaway Heisman favorite Joe Burrow — that doesn't lend itself to much variance against outmatched teams. Meanwhile, Ole Miss may be without star running back Scottie Phillips. Play: LSU minus-21.

Florida minus-7 at Missouri, over/under: 51. The Tigers have one of the most drastic home/road splits in the nation, as they've been a wrecking crew at Faurot Field and helpless away from it. I'm holding out hope that a hook gets added to this number, in which case Missouri would be a play. Lean: Missouri plus-7.

Alabama minus-17.5 at Mississippi State, over/under: 61. Reports are that Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is healthier this week, which turns a bad situation into a dire one for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs' defense has never recovered from last year's mass of graduations, giving up 6.2 yards per play to rank outside of the nation's top 100. Lean: Alabama minus-17.5.

South Carolina plus-11 at Texas A&M, over/under: 50.5. Number looks a little rich at first glance, until taking a gander at the injury report. The Gamecocks barely have any healthy receivers and are also banged up in the trenches. Guess: Texas A&M minus-11.

Georgia minus-2.5 at Auburn, over/under: 41. The Bulldogs haven't given up a point in two of their last three games and might have the best defense in the nation. Auburn quarterback Bo Nix hasn't yet encountered a unit this strong. Guess: Georgia minus-2.5.

Kentucky minus-10.5 at Vanderbilt, over/under: 42. This line has steamed up two points from opening minus-8.5 to where there can't possibly be any value on the Wildcats. Vanderbilt shouldn't be as feeble as in last week's 52-0 loss to Florida with quarterback Riley Neal returning from injury. Guess: Vanderbilt plus-10.5.

Sun Belt

Appalachian State minus-16.5 at Georgia State, over/under: 62.5. The Mountaineers put everything into last week's win over South Carolina, perhaps to the detriment of looking ahead to prepare for Georgia State's inventive, uptempo offense. The Panthers have been catching opponents off guard ever since upsetting Tennessee in week 1 and may find another victim in Appalachian State. Guess: Georgia State plus-16.5.

Louisiana-Lafayette minus-28 at South Alabama, over/under: 53. I don't have a metric to rely on for variance by team in college football, but I imagine that the Rajun Cajuns would be at the bottom if there was one. Louisiana-Lafayette, which is 8-1 against the spread, has played consistently brilliant every week. Guess: Louisiana-Lafayette minus-28.

Louisiana-Monroe plus-7 at Georgia Southern, over/under: 57.5. Run games have gashed the Warhawks all year. The Eagles run out of their triple option on more than 80 percent of their plays. Guess: Georgia Southern minus-7.

Coastal Carolina plus-13 at Arkansas State, over/under: 60.5. Buy low on Coastal Carolina after last week's 48-7 loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as 14-point underdogs. No one game defines a season and the Chanticleers haven't been that helpless at any other point of the season. Guess: Coastal Carolina plus-13.

Troy minus-7.5 at Texas State, over/under: 63. The Trojans have a highly explosive offense and it's difficult to see the Bobcats keeping up. Troy is bound to at least have a handful of long touchdowns behind streaking quarterback Kaleb Barker and big-play running back D.J. Billingsley. Guess: Troy minus-7.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Back to top

SHARE

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy