Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 12 winners against the spread

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Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson looks to pass against the Houston Texans on November 17, 2019.

Thu, Nov 21, 2019 (2 a.m.)

The Baltimore Ravens were likely my favorite NFL team coming into the season.

They were my best bet in win totals — luckily, because many of the others aren’t looking so promising — and my pick to reach the Super Bowl. I bet accordingly in all but one area — Lamar Jackson to win the Most Valuable Player award.

That’s looking like a costly mistake now. Jackson is down to as low as a minus-140 (risking $1.40 to win $1) favorite to win the NFL’s top individual honor in local sports books after sitting around a consensus of 100-to-1 coming into the season.

File it under missed opportunity. At least the Ravens have helped make up for the oversight on a game-by-game basis.

I’ve sided with the Ravens in each of the last four weeks to coincide with their current four-game against the spread winning streak. Is it time to re-up for one more week?

Find picks on every Week 12 game below, separated as always into three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas. The current record stands at 93-67-1 after a downer 6-7 showing last week.

Plays (27-14-1)

San Francisco minus-3 vs. Green Bay Packers The 49ers’ scoring margin is 95 points better than the Packers’ this season, and that’s not the only metric where the home team is far superior. San Francisco is better in all of them. A line that barely gives the 49ers an edge beyond home-field advantage against a team traveling East to West is too good to pass up.

Los Angeles Rams plus-3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens This line shot up 3.5 points from last week’s lookahead number after the Ravens’ 41-7 dismantling of the Rams as 4-point favorites. That’s too much, especially considering the Rams represent a significant upgrade in opposition in terms of coaching and defense.

New York Jets plus-3 vs. Oakland Raiders It hurts to miss the 3.5, and this wouldn’t be a play at any less than 3, but the spot still looks terrific for the Jets. Oakland is as rush-driven as any team in the NFL, and New York leads the league in giving up only 3 yards per rushing attempt.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-1 vs. Seattle Seahawks With a 7-1 record in games decided by seven points or less, regression is begging to come for the Seahawks. The Eagles’ offense is a chore to watch but its defense has quietly jelled and moved up to sixth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.

Leans (34-27)

Houston Texans minus-3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts Can’t shake the fact that the Texans have such a sizable advantage on a personnel level and should be more prepared after having already faced the Colts once this season. Sure, Houston lost that game 30-23 but it held a 1 yard per play advantage.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-4.5 at Atlanta Falcons I’m not sure how I got inflicted with the curse of backing Tampa Bay, which has now lost six straight games against the spread, every week but I guess I must accept my fate. The look-ahead line on this game was Atlanta minus-3 last week, and the Falcons haven’t quite done enough to justify their newfound market respect.

Detroit Lions minus-3.5 at Washington Redskins Bet against Washington until further notice. As if it wasn’t lacking enough with one of the NFL’s worst rosters, interim coach Bill Callahan is completely overmatched.

New York Giants plus-6.5 at Chicago Bears The time is past due to begin treating the Bears like a toxic dump site. Stay away from this combusting situation, especially when being asked to lay points, at all costs.

Cincinnati Bengals plus-7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Center is one of the toughest positions to fill when a starter goes down — or, in this case, gets suspended — so expect some drop-off from the Steelers playing without Maurkice Pouncey. It’s also a good idea to grab this many points in what projects as a low-scoring game.

Guesses (32-25)

New England Patriots minus-6.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys Dallas’ defense has steadily declined and is now dealing with a number of injuries including to half of its starting secondary. If there’s an ideal place for New England’s dormant offense to come to life, it’s here.

New Orleans Saints minus-9.5 vs. Carolina Panthers Grab what’s more likely to wind up a good number as this game might end up closing on 10. The bottom may not have fallen out yet for the Panthers, which saw their turnover luck flip in last week’s 29-3 loss to the Falcons as 4.5-point favorites and could be in for more regression.

Miami Dolphins plus-11 at Cleveland Browns Myles Garrett’s minimum season-long suspension is not insignificant from a football perspective. The Browns were already ailing along the defensive front seven, and laying this many points with those cluster injuries should be out of the question.

Buffalo Bills minus-4 vs. Denver Broncos The line has moved too far in the Broncos’ direction after opening at minus-5.5 to pick them at this point. They might be just as good as the Bills but this isn’t a beneficial spot on their second straight road game with Brandon Allen facing a top-flight pass defense for the first time.

Tennessee Titans minus-3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars I would pick the Jaguars at 3.5, but no sports book has added the hook quite yet. The move is probably going to happen, however, so pocketing some closing-line value with the Titans looks like the only choice at the moment.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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