Vegas Play of the Day: Colorado Avalanche at Washington Capitals

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Steve Marcus

Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin, left, (8) celebrates with teammate Evgeny Kuznetsov (92) after scoring in the second period during a game against the Vegas Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena Tuesday, Dec. 4, 2018.

Mon, Oct 14, 2019 (11:24 a.m.)

 The sixth season of the annual Play of the Day betting competition between the Sun's sports staff is now under way, effective July 1.

Bankrolls start at $10,000 for each of the four participants, with the objective to increase it as much as possible over the next year. The minimum daily wager is $300, with a $200 penalty assessed for failing to place a bet on an assigned day.

Past winners are Case Keefer in 2018-19 and 2017-2018, Ray Brewer in 2016-2017 and 2015-2016, and Taylor Bern in 2014-2015.

Washington Capitals minus-125 vs. Colorado Avalanche: $950 to win $760

The Avalanche are one of the last two unbeaten teams in hockey (along with the Oilers). Not for long.

Colorado nearly tripped up in its last game, needing overtime to beat Arizona, and hasn’t exactly been dominating teams as much as its 4-0 record may indicate. The Avalanche’s underlying numbers, metrics like shot share and expected goals, are relatively middling.

They’re a good team, but one’s that going to regress. The regression starts today against the Capitals, which still deserve to be considered one of the best teams in the NHL.

Bringing up measures like shot share and expected goals and backing Washington is ironic because it annually rates out relatively average and overperforms. But that’s because the Capitals have superstars that throw the numbers out of whack.

They might be aging, but they’re still superstars. Players like Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov can overwhelm Colorado.

Washington should be closer to a minus-140 favorite, so take the value the market is providing.

Current Standings: Grimala (8-3, $10,945), Brewer (6-8, $7,675), Emerson (6-10, $7,590),  Keefer (10-10-1, $7,225)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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