Vegas Play of the Day: Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints

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Ed Zurga / AP

In this Aug. 9, 2018, file photo, Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) listens to head coach Bill O’Brien before an NFL preseason football game against the Kansas City Chiefs in Kansas City, Mo.

Mon, Sep 9, 2019 (11:37 a.m.)

The sixth season of the annual Play of the Day betting competition between the Sun's sports staff is now underway, effective July 1.

Bankrolls start at $10,000 for each of the four participants, with the objective to increase it as much as possible over the next year. The minimum daily wager is $300, with a $200 penalty assessed for failing to place a bet on an assigned day.

Past winners are Case Keefer in 2018-19 and 2017-2018, Ray Brewer in 2016-2017 and 2015-2016, and Taylor Bern in 2014-2015.

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints Under 52.5 points: $880 to win $800

It worked Sunday; let’s see if it can work again. This is the second (straight) game this week where the total looks a few points high, and it’s easy to figure out why.

Bettors are convinced both the Saints and Texans are going to have high-powered offenses. And they might be right, but that doesn’t mean both teams are going to be high-powered from day one.

It doesn’t mean they’re going to explode for points against each other. Let’s not forget that both of these defenses were strong last year, ranking in the top 10 of Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA.

There’s reason to believe the defenses could continue to be every bit as efficient as the offenses. The Saints have a young defensive core with plenty of players entering their primes as opposed to an offense that’s aging at the most important position with 40-year-old Drew Brees — another similarity to last night — and slowed down toward the end of last year.

A lot of people want to throw Houston’s DeShaun Watson into the upper tier of quarterbacks, but that might be a bit premature. He needs to show a little more.

Maybe it’s tonight and coincides with Brees doing his best Tom Brady impression, leading to the two sides getting in a shootout. I just think it’s unlikely. I make the total 49.5, and three points is more than enough value to act.

Current Standings: Grimala (6-2, $11,705), Emerson (4-6, $8,440), Keefer (5-6, $6,825), Brewer (2-8, $5,575)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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