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Another winning performance last week pushed the Sunday Sweats column to up more than 20 units on the season.
Panthers receiver Robby Anderson was the difference, scoring a first-quarter touchdown to cash my first ever anytime touchdown scorer prop in this space at +155. I’ve got another touchdown-scorer prop at a decent plus price this week as well as picks for all the weekly categories.
I hope I didn’t jinx securing another winning week by mentioning the profits so far, but sometimes you’ve got to enjoy the success. I never expected this endeavor to go so well in its inaugural run, and I’m going to do my best to keep it rolling.
Read this week’s column below. For accounting purposes, all plays outside of the pick’em will be linked and counted in the Sunday Sweats records. The records are attached to each individual category and totaled at the bottom of the page with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.
Tasty Total (10-6, $309.10): New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks over 47 (BetMGM)
Who’s buying Seattle’s defensive improvement? Not me. What I am buying, however, is that the Giants’ offense could be slightly better under Colt McCoy, who’s expected to get the start for the injured Daniel Jones. Three straight Seahawks’ games have gone under and the market has adjusted too drastically with this total now three points lower than the closing number in any of their games since Week 2. It made a little more sense earlier in the week when bad weather was forecasted, but now it looks like the rain and wind will hold off in the area until Monday.
Two-team Teaser (7-5, $76.44): Washington Football Team +13 & Baltimore Ravens -.5 (Wynn)
The Ravens, Packers and Raiders are all acceptable teaser legs, passing through both 3 and 7. I have a strange, sneaking suspicion one of the latter two loses though. The Ravens’ game against the Cowboys has the lowest total (45) of the three any so I feel comfortable going with them in a bounce-back spot with Lamar Jackson’s return. Speaking of low totals, Pittsburgh-Washington might have one of the shortest we’ll see the rest of the year at 43.5. And, honestly, if I had to choose, I’d think it goes under. I have no faith in Pittsburgh’s offense, making 13 more than enough points against a quietly tough Football Team.
Moneyline parlay (7-5, $1,449.26): Tennessee Titans & Atlanta Falcons +230 (Circa Sports)
I told myself I was going to get creative this week, but in the end, I couldn’t break from the usual formula — pairing together an underpriced favorite and an overpriced underdog. The Browns are getting too much love for a side that rates as the worst 8-3 team ever. The Titans should have no problems and Circa’s price on them, -230, is much more attractive than other places in town that sit as high as -260. Meanwhile, Taysom Hill probably isn’t beating a surging Falcons’ defense for the second time in three weeks. Atlanta (+128 at Circa) wasn’t prepared for him the first time around, but it will be this time. My biggest concern with this bet is coach Sean Payton coming to his senses and putting Jameis Winston in for Hill in time to lead a comeback.
Prop-hunting* (11-11, -$27.62): Melvin Gordon anytime touchdown scorer +140 (Boyd)
Sure, the Chiefs are going to roll in this game but it’s not like they’re going to shut the Broncos out. Denver will score, and Gordon is its most likely scorer, especially with Phillip Lindsay’s status in doubt. The Chiefs’ rush defense is also terrible and could leave little resistance from Gordon punching the ball in once the Broncos get inside the 5-yard line. I would have made this price closer to a pick’em.
Non-football play (7-5, $228.30): California +10.5 at UCLA (Circa Sports)
Fair warning: It will be a while before I actually dip into college basketball personally. I haven’t bet any college basketball this year and I won't be starting tomorrow. I have seen a lot of people betting UCLA, though. My kneejerk reaction is to fade such attention, and with few other options on the board, why not? Cal is an experienced, defensively-sound team. The Golden Bears might be at a talent disadvantage, but I have a hard time seeing them getting blown out. “UCLA is back” in college basketball is akin to “Texas is back” in college football. People say it every year, and every year it winds up wrong.
Sunday Sweats overall record: 42-32, $2,035.48
*Check tomorrow’s Raider gameday section for another prop bet.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
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