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An injury-marred Raiders offense has me starting this week’s Sunday Sweats in a hole.
I dropped my third straight prop wager Wednesday night when Hunter Renfrow failed to go over 39.5 receiving yards, a bet I gave out in the Raiders’ gameday preview, in Las Vegas’ 30-27 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Quarterback Derek Carr, who was a big part of the handicap, went out with a groin injury in the first quarter before he could ever target Renfrow, who eventually joined him on the sidelines with a concussion.
No worries; I’ll get it back. There are always going to be ups and downs in sports betting, but even moreso when dipping into exotic wagering and non-traditional markets like in this column.
Read this week’s column below. For accounting purposes, all plays outside of the pick’em will be linked and counted in the Sunday Sweats records. The records are attached to each individual category and totaled at the bottom of the page with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.
Tasty Total (10-8, $109.10): Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons over 49 (Circa Sports)
This has more to do with Atlanta, which I’m simultaneously selling high and buying low on. I’m selling on the Falcons’ defensive improvement under interim coach Raheem Morris, which is undeniable but they’ve caught some breaks in terms of injuries and opponents. A four-game under streak isn’t going to last forever. And that’s partly because an offensive slump that has seen Atlanta lose three of its last four isn’t going to last forever. This game should be lined in the 50s.
Two-team Teaser (8-6, $59.77): New England Patriots +8 & Houston Texans +13.5 -120 (William Hill)
The Patriots are a tremendous six-point teaser leg, going through 3 and 7 in what should be one of the week’s lowest-scoring games against the Dolphins. The tricky part comes in figuring out who to pair them with. I landed on the Texans so I could at least get through the 10 and 13. I think Indianapolis should be a 6-point favorite, and it’s down to 7 at most sports books but William Hill is one of the few sticking at 7.5 so there’s just enough value to go with Houston.
Moneyline parlay (8-6, $1,467.26): Seattle Seahawks & Minnesota Vikings +123 (William Hill)
Well, this was extremely easy to settle on. I think both the Seahawks and Vikings are underpriced this week by the market consensus, and William Hill is even lower on the market consensus than both. The Seahawks are -270 over the Washington Football Team at William Hill as opposed to as high as -300 elsewhere. The Vikings are -160 over the Bears at William Hill as opposed to as high as -180 elsewhere. There’s some recency bias on each of these two teams’ opponents with Chicago money because of a one-off strong Mitchell Trubisky performance and Washington money because of a streaking defense.
Prop-hunting (12-15, -336.71): Alvin Kamara over 57.5 rushing yards -115 (Station Casinos)
Give me all the Alvin Kamara props and give me them now, before they inevitably get steamed up. Kamara has an incredible matchup against the Chiefs, which rank 30th in the league in rush defense and 31st in defending running backs in the passing game. With Drew Brees set to return, Kamara should go off against Kansas City. This number is already up to 60.5 (-115) at other sports books where it’s posted, so I’ll gladly gobble up the extra three yards.
Non-football play (7-7, $28.30): Brooklyn Nets -5.5 vs. Golden State Warriors on NBA opening night (BetMGM)
Yes, you’re going to have to wait a couple days for this one, but since I already have a wager on one of the Tuesday night NBA games, I wanted to get in on the other. I love this spot considering I’m bullish on Brooklyn and bearish on Golden State. With Kevin Durant looking like his old self in preseason and positive reports on the way the team is responding to coach Steve Nash, I think the Nets are undervalued and a real contender. Without Klay Thompson, I can’t say the same about the Warriors.
Sunday Sweats overall record: 45-42, $1,327.72
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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