The AFC South came into the season with the tightest two-team divisional race according to the betting odds. It’s going out the same way.
While there’s a favorite of at least 2-to-1 in every other division, the Titans are as low as -140 (risking $1.40 to win $1) to hold off the Colts, which come back at +120 (risking $1 to win $1.20) in the AFC South. They’re both sitting with 10-4 records heading into Week 16, but the Titans currently hold the tiebreaker by virtue of better divisional and conference records.
In the days before the season began, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook listed the Colts at Even money and the Titans at +180.
Neither Tennessee nor Indianapolis have easy paths to victory this weekend with the former traveling to Green Bay as a slight underdog and the latter going to Pittsburgh as a small favorite.
They’re two highlights of a relatively strong slate of games for this late into the season. I’m hoping to make the most of it and bounce back from a crippling 2-11-3 record picking every game last week to bring the season total down to 115-103-6.
Read below for picks on every Week 16 game, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.
Plays (34-32-2)
Las Vegas Raiders +3 vs. Miami Dolphins There’s a lot working in the Raiders’ favor here — extra rest to get a spate of defensive players healthy, the uncertainty forcing the Dolphins to prepare for two different offenses depending on the quarterback and an Eastern time zone team traveling west for a primetime game. The Dolphins are also at their market peak after covering four in a row despite not playing all that efficiently.
Houston Texans -7.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The Texans aren’t quite as bad as their 4-10 record suggests as they seem snake bitten with ill-timed mistakes — like a fumble into the end zone to end last week’s game in a 27-20 loss to the Colts instead of forcing overtime. The Bengals are every bit as bad, and probably worse, than their 3-10-1 record suggests as they’re one of only two teams — the Jets being the other — getting outgained by more than 1 yard per play on the year.
Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Tennessee Titans The Packers’ pass game presents a bigger edge against the Titans’ pass defense (30th in the league by Football Outsiders’ DVOA) than the Titans’ run game does against the Packers’ rush defense (21st in the league by DVOA). Last week’s lookahead number of Packers -4.5 was more in line with where this number should sit.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Denver Broncos The Chargers’ point differential on the year is -62; the Broncos’ is -119. Other metrics tell a similar story of the Chargers being better than the Broncos, enough so that they should at least merit an extra half-point to get above the key number on the point spread here.
Los Angeles Rams +2 at Seattle Seahawks The Rams have the best net yard per play differential (1.1) in the NFL and rate second in opponent-adjusted EPA (expected points added). In other words, don’t overreact to them falling victim to the biggest upset in 25 years last week, a 23-20 loss to the Jets as 17.5-point favorites.
Carolina Panthers +2.5 at Washington Football Team Alex Smith is suddenly being overvalued; even if he returns, the veteran is no savior for Washington. These teams are pretty close even so taking points with either side is advisable assuming full strength, but there’s not even a guarantee Washington will be at full strength.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 at Detroit Lions With Matthew Stafford still banged up and the Lions’ defense ranking dead last in DVOA, anything less than double digit is a bargain on the Buccaneers. Look past the 17-0 halftime hole of last week and Tampa Bay played well enough and deserved to cover the closing 6-point spread in a 31-27 victory over Atlanta.
Leans (31-26-3)
New England Patriots +7 vs. Buffalo Bills Getting the full touchdown is valuable in what should be a low-scoring game in cold and possibly windy conditions at Gillette Stadium. Clinching the AFC East title was one of the biggest moments for the Bills’ franchise in more than a decade and they have nothing left to play for with a playoff berth clinched but no way to earn a first-round bye.
Dallas Cowboys +2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The Cowboys have quietly made a great deal of improvement and actually surpassed the Eagles in DVOA. With Jalen Hurts-mania in full effect, I’m sitting back and hoping this number gets pushed to 3.
Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts This line moved a remarkable 4.5 points off of last week’s results, namely the Steelers embarrassing 27-17 Monday Night Football loss to the Bengals. That’s too much, no matter how poor Pittsburgh looked.
New York Jets +9.5 vs. Cleveland Browns This was the spot I had labeled for where the Jets would finally find a win, but they pre-empted me with last week’s shocking victory over the Rams. I’m now patiently waiting/hoping this number climbs back up to 10 before getting involved against an overrated Cleveland side.
Guesses (50-45)
San Francisco 49ers +5 at Arizona Cardinals Arizona needs it more and has the far more talented roster given San Francisco’s league-worst injury situation, but I can’t get past the coaching matchup. On principle, a Kyle Kingsbury-led should almost never be giving five points to a Kyle Shanahan-led team.
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 vs. Chicago Bears Disregard the Jaguars’ back-to-back blowout losses considering they came to two teams — the Ravens and the Titans — that are at the very least in the NFL’s top 10. Jacksonville has been more competitive against mediocre to middling opponent all year, a category Chicago certainly falls into despite a two-game straight-up and against the spread winning streak.
Kansas City Chiefs -10 vs. Atlanta Falcons The vast majority of sports books are at 10.5, but a 10 hanging around at Treasure Island makes it easier to take the Chiefs. It’s a fair price, but like any sane person, I’d rather back the best team in the league than one of the most error-prone teams in the league.
New Orleans Saints -7 vs. Minnesota Vikings Number is spot-on but New Orleans appears to be heading in a better direction as Minnesota regresses to close the season. The Vikings would be the pick if the spread gets to 7.5 but that hasn’t happened thus far locally.
New York Giants +11 at Baltimore Ravens I’m in no hurry to bet against Baltimore right now, but this spread unquestionably looks a point high. The Giants’ defense should at least be able to provide more resistance than the three opponents the Ravens have ravaged — the Jaguars, Browns and Cowboys — as part of a three-game win- and cover-streak.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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