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A late Florida Atlantic interception at the goal line against Memphis in Wednesday’s Montgomery Bowl dashed hopes of the first backdoor cover of bowl season.
The Tigers held on to beat the Owls 25-10 as 10-point favorites, and thus my dreams of an undefeated bowl season will have to wait another year.
I really thought I had a chance with a 4-0 start this season. Any proceeding losses are clearly Florida Atlantic’s fault; everything would have been different if the Owls had kept my momentum going.
And, yes, of course, that's all in jest. I’ll take that start every time and for now try to carry it over into the next set of five games.
Read below for picks, labeled with three separate confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.
Servpro First Responder Bowl, 12:30 p.m. Saturday in Dallas: Louisiana -14 vs. UTSA, over/under: 56. I’m never thrilled about laying double-digits with a team that’s as run-first and slow-paced as the Ragin’ Cajuns, but think the talent gap might still be worth an extra point or two. The Roadrunners’ 108th standing nationally against the run by EPA per play is a cause for alarm. Guess: Louisiana -14.
LendingTree Bowl, 12:30 p.m. Saturday in Mobile, Ala.: Western Kentucky +3.5 vs. Georgia State, over/under: 49.5. Western Kentucky’s offense is truly horrendous, ranking in the nation’s bottom 10 in gaining 4.5 yards per play. Georgia State managed better results against a tougher schedule. Lean: Georgia State -3.5.
FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl, 4:30 p.m. Saturday in Orlando: Liberty +7.5 vs. Coastal Carolina, over/under: 59.5. *Whispers in an attempt to not upset anyone over what’s somehow become Amerca’s team* Liberty has been just as efficient as Coastal Carolina on the year. The Chanticleers deserve to be favored but not by more than a touchdown, especially not coming off of a COVID-19 outbreak. Play: Liberty +7.5.
Cheez-It Bowl, 2:30 p.m. Tuesday in Orlando: Oklahoma State -2.5 vs. Miami, over/under: 58.5. These teams look evenly-matched with Miami sitting at No. 23 in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings and Oklahoma State at No. 25. The Cowboys had more opt-outs so the Hurricanes might have been worth a look at the opening price of +4, but it’s not worth betting at less than a field goal. Guess: Miami +2.5.
Valero Alamo Bowl, 6 p.m. Tuesday in San Antonio: Texas -9 vs. Colorado. Over/under: 64. Apologies to anyone who’s read this column before and therefore has already seen this sentence, but it bears repeating: Numbers should always trump narratives. There’s no predictive-statistical evidence this spread should be this close, even with the Longhorns’ opt-outs, and the spread seems to instead be moving on conjecture and speculation over the state of the Texas program. Play: Texas -9.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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