Insert cautionary tale or warning about betting the last week of the NFL regular season here.
I feel like I write some version of the same thing every year pertaining to Week 17, and the message is similar to one you’ll find in any other betting preview. But it’s for good reason.
There’s nothing trickier in football betting than handicapping the final full slate where the results of most games range somewhere from minor to meaningless in terms of significance. Some teams will go all out. Some teams will exert minimal effort throughout. Some teams will switch their approach midway through.
And it’s not so simple figuring out which sides fall into which boxes.
Taking it easy at the betting window might be the smartest advice for Week 17. Of course, that’s not an option here as I continue on a season-long quest to pick every game.
Twenty-nine games are left including the playoffs with more than half of them on tap for Sunday so let’s make the most of it.
Read below for picks on every Week 17 game, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The record for the year stands at 124-109-7 after going 9-6-1 last week.
Plays (38-34-1)
New England Patriots -3 vs. New York Jets Sell high on the Jets. I can’t believe I just typed those words either, but that’s where we stand with a team once favored to go 0-16 now being priced with too much respect after winning two straight games.
New York Giants +2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys The line on this game a week ago was New York -3.5, and a five-point swing is way too much for Dallas’ 37-17 win over Philadelphia. The Giants mostly neutralized the Cowboys in a 37-34 loss in their first meeting this season — and that was with Dak Prescott playing more than half the game.
San Francisco 49ers +6 vs. Seattle Seahawks By raw EPA (expected points added), the Seahawks are the ninth best team in the NFL and the 49ers are 12th. In other words, there’s less separating these teams than conventional wisdom indicates.
Minnesota Vikings -6.5 at Detroit Lions The Lions have been outscored by 61 points the last two weeks, and considering their injuries, have a real case to make as the worst team in the NFL at the moment. I can’t pass up a chance to bet against them at less than a touchdown one last time.
New Orleans Saints -6.5 at Carolina Panthers The Saints already rank first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and now they might be peaking heading into the playoffs. They’ve outgained their last two opponents — yes, including the Chiefs despite a 32-29 loss — by nearly 1.5 yards per play since Drew Brees returned.
Leans (34-27-3)
Chicago Bears +5.5 vs. Green Bay Packers Despite three straight wins and covers, the market is still showing some hesitation with the Bears. There’s no such holdup with the Packers, which are hitting their power-rating peak after blowing out the Titans 40-14. That means it’s time to sell high, though preferably only if this spread hits 6 again.
Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 vs. Washington Football Team Philadelphia was a 4-point favorite on last week’s lookahead line and not even its elimination should account for this big of a shift. Jalen Hurts isn’t a finished product at quarterback but he’s still preferable to either Alex Smith or Taylor Heinicke.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 vs. Atlanta Falcons If the Buccaneers plan to play everyone, then this line is at minimum 1.5 points too low. And Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians says he plans to play everyone, and it’s easy to believe him with the No. 5 seed and a game against the NFC East champion available to clinch.
Arizona Cardinals -2.5 at Los Angeles Rams This line implies a 7-point dropoff from injured Rams quarterback Jared Goff to the backup John Wolford. I’m not so sure the change shouldn’t be worth at least another half point considering Wolford was an undrafted afterthought and has never started an NFL game.
Guesses (52-48)
Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs have committed to resting their starters. If the Chargers’ first string can’t beat the Chiefs’ second string, then the organization is further behind in a rebuild than realized.
Miami Dolphins +2.5 at Buffalo Bills The Dolphins opened as a 1-point favorite, and considering that there’s been no clarity on if the Bills will play their starters, the shift might have been unjustified. The Bills are a much stronger team, but the motivational aspects of this game with the Dolphins needing a win to reach the postseason couldn’t be any more divergent.
Tennessee Titans -7 at Houston Texans Tennessee -7.5 is the correct number and that’s where this line sits everywhere in the world except one place — Treasure Island. That’s an important half-point that won’t be around much longer.
Cleveland Browns -9 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers The Steelers are giving every indication that winning this game isn’t a priority while the Browns will be going all-out to clinch a playoff spot by their own volition. Pittsburgh might have to be the pick at 10, but double digits are a necessity to entertain the idea and not all sports books are there yet.
Baltimore Ravens -11.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Backing Baltimore requires paying a bit of a premium, but it’s worth it for as well as it’s playing. I don’t anticipate betting against the Ravens any time soon — quite possibly not for the rest of the year.
Denver Broncos +2.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders Both teams are beaten-up and reeling, making it hard to know what to expect. That makes this feel like more of a pick’em and a game where I would take points with either side.
Jacksonville Jaguars +14 at Indianapolis Colts I’m not comfortable laying a huge number with a somewhat underachieving Colts’ team. Given that Indianapolis must win, it might be the pick at any smaller number but the spread looks unlikely to budge.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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