NFL playoffs by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the divisional round

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Fans at Lambeau Field watch during the first half of an NFL football game between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears Sunday, Dec. 15, 2019, in Green Bay, Wis.

Thu, Jan 9, 2020 (2 a.m.)

Home-field advantage in the NFL never means more than in the divisional round of the playoffs.

The four teams with playoff byes possess not only the edge of playing at home after stronger regular seasons, but also having rested for a week while their opponents battled for their seasons.

That doesn't mean it's wise to blindly back all the home teams. On the contrary, the betting market is fully aware of how the bye teams tend to fare in the divisional round. It's worked into the line.

Other angles must be exploited to come out with winners.

I'll share my thought process on each game below as I continue the season-long column picking every game. Picks are labeled in three confidence categories, and lines are the best currently available on the chosen side. After a 2-2 record in the wild-card round, my record for the year stands at 140-116-4 — 40-25-1 on plays, 49-40 on leans and 51-51-3 on guesses.

Minnesota Vikings plus-7 at San Francisco 49ers, over/under: 44.5. All the situational advantages, including but not limited to the aforementioned ones, fall in the 49ers' favor here. They also have the benefit of the Vikings having to travel East to West on a short week coming off of a taxing, overtime win against the Saints. The personnel edge might be a little murkier. Coming into the season, few would have argued that San Francisco had a better roster than Minnesota. Some adjustment is necessary given the way the 49ers dominated the NFC all year, but not too much of one. And they've suffered more season-ending injuries than the Vikings, including in a cluster on the defensive line towards the end of the regular season. The Vikings' statistical profile paints them closer to an 12-5 straight-up team than their actual 11-6 record. By the same measures, the 49ers sit closer to 12-4 than their actual 13-3 mark. These teams are more equal than perceived. Consider the Vikings at plus-270 on the moneyline because they have a real chance to keep their run going. Play: Vikings plus-7.

Tennessee Titans plus-9 at Baltimore Ravens, over/under: 47. Even though I wound up on the wrong side in my stab-in-the-dark pick last week, I stand by everything I wrote about the Titans. I'm still not totally sold on this team. They're still a side that's mostly struggled against elite competition. Now they have to take on the elite of the elite. The gap between Baltimore and the rest of the league, especially if isolating the numbers to include only this season without priors, is near-historic by measures like Football Outsiders' DVOA. The Ravens have covered four straight, and nine of their last 10 games, to show how much the market has failed to keep up. Coach John Harbaugh has created perhaps an even larger gap between himself and the rest of the NFL coaches with consistently positive expected-value decision-making. Despite the praise Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel has drawn for last week's win at New England, he still lags behind in the category. This number is likely on the move, as it's at double digits at the biggest offshore sports books. Attack the short line while it's available with the NFL's top team. Play: Ravens minus-9.

Houston Texans plus-10 at Kansas City Chiefs, over/under: 51. Was the take about the 49ers and Vikings being evenly matched not hot enough for you? Well, this one should pass the heat test: From strictly a talent standpoint, there's not that much separating Kansas City and Houston. How the teams utilize that talent is where there's some divergence. Kansas City coach Andy Reid is a master in putting his pieces in a place to success; Houston coach Bill O'Brien is, um, not. But sometimes the Texans' embarrassment of riches wins out anyway, like a week 6 trip to Kansas City when they knocked off the Chiefs 31-24. The closing line on that game? Kansas City minus-3.5. Yes, the Chiefs were beaten-up at that point and the Texans were closer to full strength. But a 6.5-point move in the same season where the team getting the point-spread boost was the victor the first time around? I can't cosign that. Play: Texans plus-10.

Seattle Seahawks plus-4 at Green Bay Packers, over/under: 47. The only way I can come to a decision on this game is by deciding which team I hate less. Make no mistake — I don't like either. They've both overachieved, going an unbelievable 19-3 combined in games decided by a touchdown or less. I've been writing about each team's good fortune all year and chalking it up to variance, which plays a role but isn't the entire story. It's not wholly surprising the Packers and Seahawks have both performed beyond expectation considering who each team has behind center. Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers are both future Hall of Famers. The 36-year-old Rodgers isn't quite what he once was though. He's become more conservative and dropped to an average of 7 yards per attempt, the second-lowest mark of 12-year starting career. Wilson's average is an entire yard higher at 8 yards per attempt. When the line looks this tight, I'd rather trust the better quarterback. Right now, Wilson is the better quarterback. Guess: Seahawks plus-4.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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