No time is a good time for a losing streak, but especially not at the tail end of the NFL season.
That's what I'm enduring, however, after whiffing on five straight sides in the NFL playoffs. There is one saving grace: I'm sitting pretty with my futures positions.
I bought on three of the NFL's final four teams at decent prices to win both their conferences and the Super Bowl throughout the season — Tennessee being the lone exception. I have the Chiefs at 15-to-1 to win the Super Bowl and 7-to-1 to win the AFC, the 49ers at 7-to-1 to win the Super Bowl and 4-to-1 to win the NFC and the Packers at 14-to-1 to win the Super Bowl and 13-to-2 to win the NFC.
I don't share that as a thinly veiled humblebrag but, rather, important context to understand the picks on conference championship weekend. Going into games with preexisting exposure requires thinking a bit differently.
Read below for my two picks on conference championship weekend. The overall record picking every game on the year stands at 140-120-4 — 40-28-1 on plays, 49-40 on leans and 51-52-3 on guesses.
Tennessee Titans plus-7 at Kansas City Chiefs, over/under: 53. On second thought, maybe my futures actually hold no weight in how I'm approaching the games. At least not this game. I'm not completely against hedging in general, but I'm completely against hedging if it forces the hedger to take a bad number. This would force me to take a bad number. I'm not ready to price the Titans as only slightly worse than the best team in the NFL on a neutral field.
Yes, Tennessee beat Kansas City outright earlier in the year 35-33 as 5-point home underdogs. It's a game I documented more in depth than any other this season from a betting perspective. Little did I know the importance the game would go on to hold in the moment, but I urge anyone who doesn't fully remember the game to go back and read the piece. It should help give an idea of how many things had to go right for the Titans to prevail.
The Chiefs had a win probability of more than 99 percent in the final minutes and held a 159-yard edge in total. And they weren't nearly as strong then as they are now. Their run defense has solidified down the stretch of the season and they've gotten healthier. Don't forget that even Patrick Mahomes was hobbled in the first Tennessee game because of an earlier-than-expected return from a dislocated kneecap. Factoring all of this in, the Titans need more than a 2-point adjustment from the number earlier in the season now that they're headed on the road. Play: Chiefs minus-7.
Green Bay Packers plus-7 at San Francisco 49ers, over/under: 45. From an analytical perspective, these teams are not remotely in the same class. San Francisco reigns over Green Bay by any measure. The 49ers are nearly 2 yards better by net yard per play and have stronger success rates on both sides of the ball. The discrepancy is what made San Francisco minus-3 hosting Green Bay in week 12 one of the best bets of the year. That game looms large here, though. This is more in line with where the number should have been all along.
Especially at 7.5, where most sports books sit with only a few holding onto 7 at minus-120 (risking $1.20 to win $1) on the favorite, there's no value on either side. Green Bay has demonstrated time and again that it's more efficient than its statistical profile. Teams that benefit from hidden value like that are usually led by a great quarterback and coach. It might be time to start considering that a possibility with the Packers.
No one would argue otherwise when it comes to Hall of Fame-bound Aaron Rodgers, even as he's cut back on his aggressiveness in recent years, but it's possible first-year coach Matt LaFleur might also be invaluable. Green Bay improved to 9-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less in last week's 28-23 win over Seattle as 4.5-point favorites. Many are writing that off as luck — and there's a good bit of luck included undoubtedly — but others are crediting LaFleur's adjustments as paving the way for some of the close wins. And, as seen against the Seahawks, the Packers' offense is often at its best early when running off LaFleur's script.
This is still not a team I'm looking to buy on, but it's also not one I'm rushing to fade either. My futures positions on these two teams will result in a nearly identical profit so there's no further reason for me to get involved here. Guess: 49ers minus-7.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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