Six primetime slots spread across three games, six teams currently sitting in playoff spots.
These are the kind of NFL weeks that local bookmakers love as there’s always more action when strong teams are squaring off in the stand-alone games. Seattle’s 28-21 win over Arizona as 3-point favorites on Thursday Night Football surely started the week with big volume, and it will end similarly when Tampa Bay (-4) and the Los Angeles Rams square off on Monday Night Football.
In between, there’s another marquee matchup for Sunday Night Football — Kansas City (-8) at Las Vegas.
Week 11 looks like a good one but it’s only really a good one if profit is part of the proceedings. Sunday Sweats has produced winners all season and hopes to keep chugging along. this week.
Read this week’s column below. For accounting purposes, all plays outside of the pick’em will be linked and counted in the Sunday Sweats records. The records are attached to each individual category and totaled at the bottom of the page with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.
Tasty Total (8-5, $227.28): Dallas at Minnesota over 48 (Stations)
Rewind to about a month ago. Back then, the Cowboys and Vikings were being discussed as historically bad defenses. A lot has changed since then, yes, and both units have shown significant improvement. But enough improvement that they’ll play a game with a below-average amount of points indoors? I don’t think so.
Two-team teaser (5-5,-$90.01): Houston +8.5 & Green Bay +7.5 at -120 (William Hill)
If only William Hill was one of the books with the Rams as a 4.5-point underdog, I’d tease them up to +10.5 and pair them with the Texans. Alas, Los Angeles is only currently getting 4 points and I don’t think it makes any sense to tease unless I get can through two of the 3-7-10 numbers. Green Bay is not a bad consolation, though it makes me a little uneasy as I expect Indianapolis to win the game. Win the game by more than a touchdown though? That seems unlikely. As far as a standard teaser play, this looks like the best available this week.
Moneyline parlay (6-4, $1,172.26): Denver & Washington +377 (Wynn)
Given my stubborn (and so far losing) insistence that Miami is the betting market’s most overvalued team currently, Denver +165 is my favorite moneyline play on the board. The strategy then became figuring out which team to pair with the Broncos. I landed on Washington considering a strong case can be made that it’s been better than Cincinnati on both sides of the ball. Sports books dealing -125 on the Football Team, like Wynn, appear a little on the cheap side.
Prop-hunting* (10-8, $117.38): Travis Kelce under 6.5 receptions -125 (William Hill)
Kelce is absolutely tearing it up this season, and he still has only managed to go over this total in four of nine games. This feels like an instance where the difficulty of catching seven passes in a single game is being under-estimated, even when it comes to the best. Las Vegas has also talked more about stopping Kelce than any other player on the Kansas City roster. The Raiders will be ready for him this time around. Will that matter? Probably not. Kelce will get his, but he can get his and be a key cog in the game without catching seven passes.
Non-football Play (5-5, $23.78): Robert Streb to win RSM Classic +140 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
All eyes in St. Simons Island, Ga., are on two-time major winner Zach Johnson, who’s climbed to second on the leaderboard going into the final round. But Streb has a three-stroke lead, one that seems to be undervalued by the betting market. The Sea Island Seaside Course isn’t much of a challenge. Streb already sits 17-under par and should be able to cruise to a decent score by playing conservatively. Johnson went on an unsustainable putting heater and shouldn’t even be the primary scare to catch Streb. Someone else — maybe Emiliano Grillo at 13-under or Kevin Kisner 12-under — could have a great round and take over the lead but it’s going to take just that — a great round. Streb could win his second career PGA Tour event with a merely decent day.
Sunday Sweats overall record: 34-27, $1,450.69
*Check tomorrow’s Raider gameday section for another prop bet.