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College football betting requires some hurricane watching this week.
Hurricane Delta’s impending landfall off the Gulf Coast has already altered the college football schedule and could wreak even more havoc depending on how it progresses. LSU’s home game against Missouri has become a road game, and a scheduled matchup between Louisiana and Coastal Carolina has been pushed back to next Wednesday.
With so many other games concentrated in the Southeast as college football continues its soft opening, more matchups could be affected. At the least, it’s probably worth checking the weather at stadiums that could be in line for wind and rain before placing bets on Saturday morning.
I planned ahead the best I could with this week’s column as I look to break a dry spell and post an overall winning week for the first time since Week 4. That’s the pessimistic view.
The optimistic view is that the plays have performed extremely well as a 3-0 tally last week brings the record on the year to 11-6. Guesses is where I’m struggling, which is pulling down the overall record to 37-41-2.
There’s still a long way to go, though, and I’m confident getting on the right side of .500 picking every game is on the immediate horizon.
Read below for this week’s picks, separated by conference and labeled by three different confidence categories. The records in each category so far are 11-6 on plays, 13-12 on leans and 13-23-2 on guesses. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.
AAC
East Carolina +4.5 at South Florida, over/under: 55.5. This might look like a matchup between two terrible teams, but South Florida’s slate of facing Notre Dame and Cincinnati is tougher than East Carolina’s UCF-Georgia State schedule. And the Bulls managed a better net yard per play, -1.8 to the Pirates’ -2.5, anyway. Lean: South Florida -4.5.
Temple -3.5 at Navy, over/under: 50.5. No matter how bad Navy has looked — and it’s looked like one of the worst teams in the nation in 10 of 12 quarters played this season — I don’t want to lay more than a field goal with a mediocre team in its first game. Temple is too much of a wild card. Guess: Navy +3.5.
ACC
Pittsburgh -6 at Boston College, over/under: 44. Pittsburgh brought better personnel into the season on both sides of the ball, and has proven to be more efficient on both sides of the ball. Boston College has benefitted from a fortunate +5 turnover margin that includes recovering five of six fumbles to elevate its power rating. Play: Pittsburgh -6.
North Carolina State +7.5 at Virginia, over/under: 59.5. Misleading final score alert: The Wolf Pack had no business edging Pittsburgh 30-29 last year considering they gave up more than 500 yards and 10 yards per pass attempt. A better coached, stingier Virginia team won’t make as many mistakes. Play: Virginia -7.5.
Virginia Tech +5 at North Carolina, over/under: 59. The Hokies might be the second-best team in the ACC, and I’m going to continue to ride them until the market catches up. The only reason Virginia Tech’s 38-31 win over Duke as 11-point favorites was remotely close was the Blue Devils getting lucky to recover all four of the game’s fumbles. Play: Virginia Tech +5.
Duke -2.5 at Syracuse, over/under: 51.5. With decent defenses and two of the bottom 30 offenses in the nation by the SP+ ratings, a total of 51.5 looks awfully generous here. Using the same logic, laying points on the road with either team is unadvisable. Lean: Syracuse +2.5.
Louisville -4.5 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 64. Much of the optimism for Georgia Tech progressing this year came out of a season-opening 16-13 upset of Florida State that now looks less impressive in hindsight. The Yellow Jackets gave up a number of explosive plays last week against Syracuse, and it doesn’t have anyone as gamebreaking as Louisville quarterback Micale Cunningham. Lean: Louisville -4.5.
Miami +14 at Clemson, over/under: 62. Miami’s offense has looked spectacular in racking up 6.6 yards per play but it hasn’t seen anything like Clemson’s defense yet. Given how dominant the Tigers have been for the last several years, they likely merit this line being slightly on the other side of two touchdowns. Guess: Clemson -14.
Florida State +21 at Notre Dame, over/under: 53. With three straight poor performances and non-covers to open the season, Florida State has bottomed out in the betting market. It’s typically wise to buy on teams that have bottomed out, as in this case, the line is around 10 points higher than it would have been at the beginning of the year. Guess: Florida State +21.
Big 12
Oklahoma +2.5 vs. Texas in Dallas, over/under: 72.5. Texas has a higher-ceiling offense and more talented defense than Oklahoma, which is a mess on both on the offensive line and in the defensive backfield. I’d wait patiently and hope for 3, a number that would make it easier to be more confident in the Longhorns. Lean: Texas -2.5.
Texas Tech +12.5 at Iowa State, over/under: 64.5. This would look like the right price if Texas Tech quarterback Alan Bowman was guaranteed to play but he’s questionable after hurting his ankle in a 31-21 loss at Kansas State as a 1-point favorite. The Cyclones also have a coaching edge with Matt Campbell against Texas Tech’s Matt Wells. Lean: Iowa State -12.5.
Kansas State +8.5 at TCU, over/under: 50.5. The Horned Frogs rank fourth-worst in the nation in giving up 7.2 yards per play on defense, and the Wildcats are consistently creative with their offensive game plans. The only thing keeping this a guess is the fact that I haven’t been able to get either of these two teams right going on two years. Guess: Kansas State +8.5.
Conference USA
Marshall -7.5 at Western Kentucky, over/under: 44.5. Western Kentucky has one of the most experienced defenses in the nation, a defense that dominated Conference USA play a year ago. The Hilltoppers have gotten off to a rough start with a 1-2 straight-up, 0-3 against the spread record but it’s just matter of time until they bear down again. Play: Western Kentucky +7.5.
Middle Tennessee +4 at Florida International, over/under: 56.5. Two straight covers, though still outright losses, has pulled Middle Tennessee’s power rating down close to where it was coming into the season. Let’s not forget their combined 89-14 losses the first two weeks that show this team has a long way to go and remains a bet-against side. Play: Florida International -4.
Florida Atlantic -2.5 at Southern Miss, over/under: 57.5. Once they shook off understandable rust from not having played a game yet, the Owls looked pretty decent in a 21-17 win over Charlotte as 5-point favorites. “Pretty decent” is a level above where Southern Miss has been most of the year. Guess: Florida Atlantic -2.5.
Charlotte -3 at North Texas, over/under: 67.5. As much as it pains me to be on the wrong side of a coaching mismatch, the 49ers are still dealing with reverberations from their coronavirus outbreak and playing back-to-back road games. If the Mean Green can’t capitalize on this spot, they’re officially one of the very worst teams in the nation. Guess: North Texas +3.
UTEP +14.5. at Louisiana Tech, over/under: 52. Yes, UTEP is 3-1 but it’s still rated as the worst team in the nation that’s started the season by the SP+ rankings. Louisiana Tech is young and not a bet-on team, but in this case, the Bulldogs are the lesser of two evils. Guess: Louisiana Tech -14.5.
Independents
UTSA +34.5 at BYU, over/under: 63. The Cougars are one of the best teams in the nation, and everyone is slowly beginning to realize it. This number will climb higher, so by default, I’ll claim what I believe will be closing line value with a streaking side. Guess: BYU -34.5.
Louisiana-Monroe +19.5 at Liberty, over/under: 61. I might be violating an ironclad rule not to overreact to one week, but Louisiana-Monroe appeared improved in a 35-30 loss to Georgia Southern as 18.5-point underdogs while Liberty played poorly in a 28-7 win over North Alabama as 33-point favorites. This spread should arguably be closer to two touchdowns. Guess: Louisiana-Monroe +19.5.
SEC
Arkansas +13.5 at Auburn, over/under: 46.5. It’s not comfortable to do given how badly its looked on offense in the first two weeks, but it’s time to buy low on Auburn. That pairs well with a chance to sell high on Arkansas, who benefitted from catching Mississippi State in a good state and Georgia with a green freshman quarterback in the first two weeks. Play: Auburn -13.5.
Florida -6 at Texas A&M, over/under: 58. Sharp money has come in on Texas A&M, but I just don’t see it. In fact, the one-point move off of a key number has made this playable on Florida, which arguably has looked better than any team in the nation on offense through two games and has too much talent not to come around on defense. Play: Florida -6.
South Carolina -13.5 at Vanderbilt, over/under: 41.5. This is a must-win for Will Muschamp as heat ramps up on the coach with the Gamecocks sitting at 0-2 and likely to be underdogs in their next four games. Clobbering the Commodores has been the one area where Muschamp has excelled at South Carolina, going 4-0 straight-up and against the spread, and the talent gap is as large as ever — especially on offense — this year. Lean: South Carolina -13.5.
Tennessee +12 at Georgia, over/under: 43. When Tennessee was a 14-point underdog earlier this week, this would have been a tougher choice but the move against Georgia feels a bit misguided. The Volunteers are 2-0 but both games were relatively close — Missouri was just as efficient but struggled to finish drives in last week’s 35-12 loss as 10-point underdogs — and not pronounced enough to drop this line as much as five points from where it would have been coming into the season. Guess: Georgia -12.
Missouri +14 at LSU, over/under: 51. The number looks right, but the circumstances could favor Missouri after this game was moved from Baton Rogue, La., to Columbia, Mo. The Bayou version of the Tigers are therefore thrust into a back-to-back travel spot that must have at least slightly cut into their preparation. Guess: Missouri +14.
Alabama -24 at Ole Miss, over/under: 24. There might not be an offense in the nation more fun to watch than the one Lane Kiffin has installed at Ole Miss. It should meet its match with Alabama’s perennially stifling defense, but given the Rebels’ certain insistence on scoring, taking the Crimson Tide is just asking to lose via backdoor cover. Guess: Ole Miss +24.
Mississippi State +2.5 at Kentucky, over/under: 57.5. Taking the points by default in a game that looks like a complete toss-up. Kentucky is probably steadier, but Mississippi State, as with all Mike Leach-coached teams, presents a larger range of potential outcomes. Guess: Mississippi State +2.5.
Sun Belt
Texas State +7.5 at Troy, over/under: 59.5. This spread is fair, but Troy might not be at its best considering what it went through at BYU. The Trojans were absolutely mauled in a 48-7 loss at BYU as 14-point underdogs and arrived home banged up and potentially weary. Guess: Texas State +7.5.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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