Sunday Sweats: Five bets to add to your Week 6 NFL Sunday card

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Associated Press

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) avoids a tackle by Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Arden Key (99) during the second half of an NFL football game, Monday, Sept. 21, 2020, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)

Sat, Oct 17, 2020 (7 p.m.)

Teasers aren’t missing.

Week after week so far this NFL season, the most popularly teased sides are rolling in and denting sports books’ bottom lines – often in dramatic fashion. Last week’s Monday Night Football surely had bookmakers cursing, as the New Orleans Saints as a 7- to 7.5-point favorite was an obvious teaser leg all week.

Exposure on the Saints was significant for the house, which looked like it would escape when the Los Angeles Chargers went up 20-3. Alas, the Saints came back to win in overtime and cover any teaser involving them — including one in the Sunday Sweats column.

I’ll take the win, obviously, but won’t celebrate too much. Such good luck won’t last forever.

If you’ve made a fortune betting NFL teasers, congratulations. Just be cautious going forward; it won’t always be this easy.

Read this Sunday Sweats column below. For accounting purposes, all plays outside of the pick’em will be linked and counted in the Sunday Sweats records. The records are attached to each individual category and totaled at the bottom of the page with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.

Tasty Total (6-2, $345.46): Lions at Jaguars over 54 (William Hill)

Both these teams have fairly competent offenses that should be capable of exploiting each other’s defenses, which both struggle to contain explosive plays. The Lions and Jaguars are also less familiar with each other considering they only play once every four years. And, for the final piece of the puzzle, they’re both in the top 10 in pace per Football Outsiders. Everything points toward a high-scoring game, and at least one local sports book is generously yet to eclipse the key total number of 54 points.

Two-team Teaser (3-2, $43.33): Chicago Bears +7.5 & Dallas Cowboys +7 -120 (William Hill)

I’m hoping the intro serves more as a reverse jinx than a mush. Some of these standard 6-point teasers through the 3 and 7 are going to stop coming through, but I’m particularly fond of this one. It was better earlier in the week when the Cowboys were +1.5 or +2, and therefore, able to get up to +7.5 or +8 but it’s still playable as is. I think both these slight underdogs win outright.

Moneyline Parlay (4-1, $774.26): Pittsburgh Steelers & Houston Texans +323 (Circa Sports)

Circa’s moneylines continue to be attractive and often well below market price on certain sides. The Steelers are a consensus -185 favorite to beat the Browns, but available at -176 at Circa. The Texans are a consensus +165 underdog to upset the Titans, but available at +170 at Circa. It might not seem like a big difference but the edge compounds on parlays, and this formula has worked out pretty well through the first five weeks. Let’s ride it again.

Prop-hunting (4-5, -$128.08): Lamar Jackson under 282.5 passing + rushing yards (William Hill)

Jackson isn’t 100 percent right physically, and it’s not much of a secret. The Ravens were conservative with their play-calling to not expose the reigning MVP much in last week’s win against Cincinnati, and the game plan should be similar against the Eagles. Even if Jackson’s knee is feeling better this week — he did practice all week, unlike last week — his offensive line is banged up with several players nursing injuries including left tackle Ronnie Stanley, the pride of Bishop Gorman. Jackson won’t run as much as usual and it’s going to take both a special day and a closer game than expected to beat this number through the air.

Non-football play (3-2, $101.82): Sebastian Munoz +135 vs. Brooks Koepka in fourth round of the CJ Cup (Circa Sports)

Koepka’s first tournament in six weeks has gone well as his knee and hip injuries haven’t appeared to bother him. There’s always a chance they flare back up, though, especially in the final round. Even if they don’t, this is too high of a price. Munoz is perennially undervalued and should only be a slight underdog. He was second in strokes-gained approach at Shadow Ridge on Saturday and should secure a top-10 finish at Shadow Creek with his irons.

Sunday Sweats overall record: 20-12, $1,136.79

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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