College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 9 game

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ASSOCIATED PRESS

In this Dec. 28, 2019, file photo, Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields throws a pass against Clemson during the first half of the Fiesta Bowl NCAA college football playoff semifinal in Glendale, Ariz.

Fri, Oct 30, 2020 (2 a.m.)

Your move, Justin Fields.

No Las Vegas sports book has been updating odds to win the Heisman Trophy on a week-to-week basis, but it will be interesting to see if that changes when the race heats up. The race should heat up this week.

It’s widely considered a three-player contest at the moment but the third player is Fields, the Ohio State quarterback, and he hasn’t really gotten a chance to launch his campaign with the Big Ten only starting last week. That changes when Ohio State goes on the road to face Penn State in primetime Saturday night.

Fields will suddenly have some more comparison with Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Alabama’s Mac Jones with his first big game of the year. Those three are the only players listed at below 10-to-1 on offshore sports books, with Lawrence currently leading the way — often as the odds-on favorite.

But don’t discount Fields’ chances.

I’m finally coming off a winning week in the college football by the odds column as I went 28-15 last week to bring the season total picking every game to 87-85-2— 17-19 on plays, 27-21 on leans and 43-45-2 on guesses.

Read below for this week’s column. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

AAC

UCF -2.5 at Houston, over/under: 82.5. This is a nice buy low spot on UCF — as long as the line stays under the field goal —as the Knights still have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, the type of offense the Cougars aspire to field consistently. The Knights’ two losses have come by a total of nine points, and with a break or two in either game, this line would be closer to a touchdown. Play: UCF -2.5.

East Carolina +17.5 at Tulsa, over/under: 60.5. East Carolina is one of the only teams in the conference that has as much returning production as Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are bound for some regression after recovering 75 percent of fumbles on the year and posting a plus-3 turnover margin. Play: East Carolina +17.5.

Temple +4.5 at Tulane, over/under: 59. Temple’s young defense has been better expected and might be up to the task against a one-dimensional Tulane offense. Overall, the Owls are at 0.2 net yards per play to the Green Wave’s -1.1. Guess: Temple +4.5.

Memphis +6.5 at Cincinnati, over/under: 55.5. It’s not so much that Cincinnati blew out SMU last week as it is the way it blew out SMU that gives me confidence the Bearcats can also slow the Tigers’ passing attack. Cincinnati completely shut down SMU, which beat Memphis 30-27 earlier in the year, and outgained it by 4.4 yards per play. Guess: Cincinnati -6.5.

Navy +13 at SMU, over/under: 58.5. At first glance, Navy appears ill-equipped to combat SMU’s vertical attack but the Midshipmen annually seem to slow down games like this and make it more competitive. I have too many bad memories of losing tickets to pick against them. Guess: Navy +13.

ACC

Virginia Tech -3.5 at Louisville, over/under: 67.5. Holding out hope for a 3, which might make this a play. The Hokies have played poorly in and lost two of three — to Wake Forest and North Carolina — but still have a talented roster and high ceiling, one they could reach now that they appear past a coronavirus disruption. Lean: Virginia Tech -3.5.

North Carolina -7 at Virginia, over/under: 61.5. Virginia is not as bad as its 1-4 straight-up record may indicate, but it’s hamstrung offensively. It’s hard to see the Cavaliers keeping up with the Tar Heels, which can score on anybody. Lean: North Carolina -7.

Notre Dame -20 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 57.5. The Fighting Irish’s offense has been inconsistent throughout the season but that shouldn’t be a problem against a Yellow Jacket defense allowing 6 yards per play. Georgia Tech particularly struggles in giving up explosive plays, a speciality of Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book. Guess: Notre Dame -20.

Boston College +31 at Clemson, over/under: 61. When Dabo Swinney gets feisty, Clemson usually is ripe to put out a blowout, and he was feisty after last week’s relatively restrained 26-point win over Syracuse as 47-point favorites. It’s anecdotal reasoning, but when the spread is this large, there’s not much else to go on. Guess: Clemson -31.

Charlotte +9.5 at Duke, over/under: 56. Now below double digits after opening as high as Duke -11.5, this has become a harder ask but Charlotte has shown just as much as its more established in-state opponent this year. The 49ers take a two-game winning streak into a matchup that could make their season. Guess: Charlotte +9.5.

Wake Forest -12 at Syracuse, over/under: 59.5. Both these teams are young and erratic, giving this game a high level of volatility. Pass. Guess: Syracuse +12.

Big Ten

Purdue -7 at Illinois, over/under: 59. Purdue managed to beat Iowa 24-20 as 3-point underdogs despite playing without coach Jeff Brohm and wide receiver Rondale Moore, arguably its best player. The Boilermakers’ potential is much higher than this line indicates. Play: Purdue -7.

Northwestern +2.5 at Iowa, over/under: 46. Northwestern came into the season as my favorite play-on team in the Big Ten Conference, and potential surprise winner of the West division. I’ve seen nothing to make me want to stray from that after a 43-3 shellacking of Maryland as 14-point favorites. Lean: Northwestern +2.5.

Minnesota -19.5 at Maryland, over/under: 61. This may feel a little high for a Terrapins team that was blown out 49-24 as 3-point underdogs to Michigan last week, but there might not be a bigger coaching mismatch all week. I trust Minnesota’s P.J. Fleck to get things turned around much more than Maryland’s Mike Locksley. Lean: Minnesota -19.5.

Ohio State -12.5 at Penn State, over/under: 64. Ohio State is one of the youngest teams in the nation on defense and giving up 370 yards to Nebraska last week might be a sign that it’s going to take same time to get up to speed. The Buckeyes should win, but I wouldn’t lay more than 10. Guess: Penn State +12.5.

Michigan State +24.5 at Michigan, over/under: 52. I’m in no hurry to step in front of Michigan quarterback Joe Milton and an offense that looks like it will roll all season. That being said, Michigan State is sure to slow this game and highly unlikely to post a -4 turnover differential for a second straight week. Guess: Michigan State +24.5.

Indiana -10.5 at Rutgers, over/under: 54. The Hoosiers were highly fortunate to beat the Nittany Lions last week in a game where they were outgained by nearly 300 yards, but the time to sell high on them must wait. Their roster is a lot more talented than the rebuilding Scarlet Knights. Guess: Indiana -10.5.

Big 12

Kansas State +3.5 at West Virginia, over/under: 46. Kansas State suffered a major downgrade in quarterback when Skylar Thompson went down and made way for freshman Will Howard to start. The drop-off didn’t come across in wins over helpless Kansas and TCU defenses, but will against West Virginia, which might have the conference’s best stop unit. Play: West Virginia -3.5.

Texas +3.5 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 58.5. Oklahoma State has faced a pretty forgiving slate of opposing offenses so far. Some shellshock should be expected in trying to slow Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger and a deep receiving core. Play: Texas +3.5.

Oklahoma -14.5 at Texas Tech, over/under: 67.5. The asking price is a bit high — this might have been a lean at -14 —but it’s hard to imagine Oklahoma losing this game. I’m not ready to declare Texas Tech free of its issues off of a 34-27 upset win against a West Virginia team that was missing some starters. Guess: Oklahoma -14.5.

TCU -2.5 at Baylor, over/under: 48. Something is wrong at TCU, which has posted a horrendous -1.4 net yard per play on the season. I’m not in a hurry to back offensively challenged Baylor either, but it might be the lesser of two evils here. Guess: Baylor +2.5.

Iowa State -28 at Kansas, over/under: 52. Kansas sits 0-5 against the closing spread, only once failing to beat the number by less than double digits. More points than this are needed to pick the Jayhawks. Guess: Iowa State -28.

Conference USA

UTSA +5.5 at Florida Atlantic, over/under: 47. The Owls are in a transitional period that appears to be holding back its offense, which is gaining only 4.3 yards per play. It’s hard to lay points with an offense that’s proven so inefficient. Lean: UTSA +5.5.

UAB -12 at Louisiana Tech, over/under: 48. The Bulldogs are one of the youngest teams in the nation, but they recruit at a high level for Conference USA standards. It’s a matter of time until they start channeling a talented roster, and when they do, double-digit spreads in conference games will look silly. Lean: Louisiana Tech +12.

Rice +1 at Southern Miss, over/under: 59.5. It’s been a rough year for Southern Miss, but this line would have been easily in the double digits if this game had taken place at the start of the season. It’s bottomed out too far. Guess: Southern Miss -1.

Independents

Western Kentucky +28.5 at BYU, over/under: 52. This line might be a couple points higher because of the way Western Kentucky struggled with Football Championship Subdivision opponent Chattanooga last week, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into that game. The Hilltoppers were likely, and if so, wisely, already preparing for the Cougars. Guess: Western Kentucky +28.5.

Mountain West

Hawaii +1.5 at Wyoming, over/under: 59.5. Weather conditions forecast as fair at War Memorial Stadium, which should benefit Hawaii and take away one of Wyoming’s biggest edges. The Warriors are continuing to run a high-paced, creative offense under new coach Todd Graham, making them a buy-on team. Lean: Hawaii +1.5.

UNR -14 at UNLV, over/under: 60.5. The Rebels had one of the nation’s worst performances last week in getting outgained by more than 3 yards per play by San Diego State, but that threw this line a little too far in a rivalry game. They opened a fair 9-point underdog, but getting two touchdowns feels like too much. Lean: UNLV +14.

New Mexico +13.5 at San Jose State, over/under: 56.5. The situation is barren for first-year New Mexico coach Danny Gonzales, while San Jose State is trending upwards in coach Brent Brennan’s fourth year. Debuting teams like the Lobos have managed success against teams already up and running like the Spartans but it’s hard to see it happening in this big of a mismatch. Guess: San Jose State -13.5.

Boise State -14 at Air Force, over/under: 49. Having trouble deciding whether Boise State’s 42-13 win over Utah State last week shows whether the former is a juggernaut or the latter is dreadful. The market clearly skews toward the Broncos being great once again as this line has shot from 9 to 14, which might be too big of a shift. Guess: Air Force +14.

San Diego State -7.5 at Utah State, over/under: 43.5. Just a numbers play as neither offense provides much to get excited about. The Aztecs would be the pick at 7, but the hook makes a look at the Aggies worthwhile. Guess: Utah State +7.5.

SEC

Arkansas +11.5 at Texas A&M, over/under: 54.5. It’s time to sell high on Arkansas, which has surprisingly played well but also benefitted from a weaker schedule than expected aside from a season-opening game against Georgia. Texas A&M would have been giving three touchdowns in this spot a couple weeks ago and hasn’t done anything to deserve a severe downgrade. Play: Texas A&M -11.5.

Ole Miss -16.5 at Vanderbilt, over/under: 64. Vanderbilt hasn’t played in two weeks while Ole Miss has gotten banged-up in physical, close losses to Auburn and Arkansas. If the Commodores can’t keep it somewhat close here, there’s truly no hope for anything but blowout losses all season. Lean: Vanderbilt +16.5.

Missouri +12.5 at Florida, over/under: 61.5. If Florida is mostly recovered from its coronavirus outbreak of the past couple weeks, then this shouldn’t be close. That’s a pretty big assumption, however, as the fates of teams post-COVID has been all over the board and reports of a few more positive tests have surfaced this week. Lean: Florida -12.5.

Georgia -17 at Kentucky, over/under: 42.5. This is a really big spread for a really low total, a combination that should always set off alarm bells. Kentucky’s offense is a cause for alarm but if new quarterback Joey Gatewood lives up to his potential, he shouldn’t be much of a decline from injured starter Terry Wilson. Guess: Kentucky +17.

Mississippi State +31 at Alabama, over/under: 63. Point spreads this large, so practically every one ever attached to Alabama, often feel like glorified coin flips. The coin just may be slightly weighted towards Mississippi State this week with Alabama losing star receiver Jaylen Waddle for the season. Guess: Mississippi State +31.

LSU -2.5 at Auburn, over/under: 65. This is a totally reasonable line, and as a totally reasonable person, I’ve grown exhausted of having to root for the anemic Auburn offense. LSU’s defense is just as bad, but at least it’s shown some signs of progress in recent weeks. Guess: LSU -2.5.

Sun Belt

Louisiana -16.5 at Texas State, over/under: 56. The Ragin’ Cajuns quietly have some top-end talent, including running backs Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas. Texas State’s defense is unlikely to have many answers. Guess: Louisiana -16.5.

Coastal Carolina -2.5 at Georgia State, over/under: 60. Doubting Coastal Carolina has been detrimental to my record, so I’m done with it. The Chanticleers are the pick at anything less than 3, regardless of whether freshman standout Grayson McCall or former starter Fred Payton is behind center. Guess: Coastal Carolina -2.5.

Troy +3 at Arkansas State, over/under: 72. Arkansas State’s defense is one of the worst in the nation, giving up 6.7 yards per play. It’s hard to envision the Red Wolves getting many stops. Guess: Troy +3.

Appalachian State -31 at UL Monroe, over/under: 55.5. This might have been an understandable line the last couple years when the Mountaineers were established as one of the best Group of Five conference teams. They haven’t earned such respect yet this year. Guess: Appalachian State -31.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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