College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 4 game

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Nick Wagner/American-Statesman via AP

LSU head coach Ed Orgeron celebrates a defensive stop against Texas during an NCAA football game on Saturday, Sept. 7, 2019, in Austin, Texas.

Fri, Sep 25, 2020 (2 a.m.)

Here we go.

It’s felt like college football had a soft opening the last couple of weeks, albeit one where a portion of the products were roped off and marked as unavailable because of coronavirus cancelations. But the sport that rules Saturdays in the fall in local sports is finally returning in a big way this week with the SEC back in action to make it four of five power conferences in competition.

The impact of a global pandemic is still evident, of course, as four more games have already succumbed to outbreaks and gotten postponed. Twenty-seven Football Bowl Subdivision games are on the board, though, and that’s more than has been available in one week since last November.

Talking Points will continue picking them all after a big start to the year on plays and a decent start overall. I sit at 14-13 against the spread picking (almost) every game the last two weeks — 6-2 on plays, 4-5 on leans and 4-6 on guesses.

Read below for this week’s picks, separated by conference and labeled by three different confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

AAC

Tulane -3.5 at Southern Miss, over/under: 54.5. Tulane was a 7.5-point favorite against Southern Miss in last year’s Armed Forces Bowl, and cruised to an easy 30-13 victory. The Green Wave have massive roster turnover since then, but Southern Miss is in the midst of its own issues including trying to adjust to interim coach Scotty Walden after Jay Hopson stepped down following a Week 1 loss to South Alabama. Guess: Tulane -3.5.

UCF -27 at East Carolina, over/under: 77. The Knights already looked like they were in midseason form in last week’s 49-21 stomping of Georgia Tech as 10-point favorites, while East Carolina hasn’t played a game yet. Number may look high but that’s less of a concern with UCF given its frenetic pace. Guess: UCF -27.

Army +13.5 at Cincinnati, over/under: 45. Number looks about right, but Cincinnati’s defense is a big step up from the Middle Tennessee and Louisiana-Monroe units Army trucked over. At less than two touchdowns, the Bearcats have to be the choice. Guess: Cincinnati -13.5.

ACC

North Carolina State +6.5 at Virginia Tech, over/under: 56.5. A lot is looking up in Blacksburg, Va., this year with the Hokies fielding one of the nation’s best defenses and an offense that should improve in its second year with quarterback Hendon Hooker. This is the first of many spots where the market seems to artificially deflating a team’s spread because it hasn’t played yet. Play: Virginia Tech -6.5.

Duke +5 at Virginia, over/under: 45.5. Opening number of Virginia -9 looked about right, but there’s been an inexplicable move towards Duke ever since. Yes, the Blue Devils have played twice while the Cavaliers are debuting, but that shouldn’t be enough of an edge to make up for a disadvantage at almost every personnel group. Play: Virginia -5.

Florida State +11 at Miami, over/under: 54. Miami may have played to its peak in beating Louisville 47-34 as 2.5-point favorites last week. Florida State may have played to its nadir in losing 16-13 to Georgia Tech two weeks ago. Both teams will regress to the mean as the season goes on. Lean: Florida State +11.

Texas State +17.5 at Boston College, over/under: 57.5. Laying this large of a number with Boston College might have been out of the question in the past, but things have changed under new coach Jeff Hafley. He’s implemented a quicker pace, one that will make it easier for the Eagles’ talent advantage over the Bobcats to shine through. Guess: Boston College -17.5.

Georgia Tech -7.5 at Syracuse, over/under: 52.5. A lot of teams have fallen victim to a UCF thrashing over the last few years, so I can forgive Georgia Tech for last week’s 49-21 loss as 10-point underdogs. The Yellow Jackets are still a buy-on team, though this line needs to get to less than a touchdown to act. Guess: Georgia Tech -7.5.

Louisville +3 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 55.5. Louisville has a tremendous offense and no defense; Pittsburgh has no offense and tremendous defense. More often not, I prefer the former combination when two flawed teams square off. Guess: Louisville +3.

Big 12

Iowa State -2.5 at TCU, over/under: 44.5. The Horned Frogs come into the season as one of the most undervalued teams in the nation, partly by virtue of an unlucky 1-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less last season. Their experienced defense should be a nightmare for a scuffling Cyclones’ offense. Play: TCU +2.5.

Texas -17.5 at Texas Tech, over/under: 70.5. Sure, it was against UTEP, but Texas’ offense put up an eye-popping 9.3 yards per play in the season debut. The sad truth about Texas Tech’s defense is it’s almost as vulnerable as UTEP’s. Play: Texas -17.5.

Kansas +17.5 at Baylor, over/under: 62. The market hasn’t caught up to how dreadful the Jayhawks are considering they’re inexperienced at almost every position and behind schedule after dealing with a coronavirus outbreak. Baylor is far from a bet-on this year under new coach Dave Aranda, but it should have enough to handle Kansas easily. Lean: Baylor -17.5.

Kansas State +27.5 at Oklahoma, over/under: 60.5. It’s a big number but Kansas State gave up nearly 9 yards per pass attempt against Arkansas State. That makes it scary to imagine what number Oklahoma and quarterback Spencer Rattler could put up. Guess: Oklahoma -27.5.

West Virginia +7 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 51.5. Don’t get involved with this game until there’s clarity on the situation of Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders. If Sanders doesn’t play, however, then this number on West Virginia is a bargain as Oklahoma State looked lost in a 16-7 win over Tulsa with replacement Ethan Bullock. Guess: West Virginia +7.

Conference USA

Middle Tennessee +7 at UTSA, over/under: 60. Few, if any, teams have looked worse than Middle Tennessee through its first two games as it’s lost by a combined 79 points to Troy and Army. But the adjustment against the Blue Raiders has gone too far, as just a couple weeks ago they would have been a favorite in this game. Lean: Middle Tennessee +7.

Georgia State -2.5 at Charlotte, over/under: 58. It’s hard to know what to expect out of the 49ers after they canceled their last game because of a coronavirus outbreak. The Panthers were much more attractive as a 2-point underdog, as they opened, but there still might be some value in laying less than a field goal. Guess: Georgia State -2.5.

Independents

Troy +14 at BYU, over/under: 61. Considering Navy admitted to having barely practiced, I’m not sure BYU deserves any major upgrade in the market after blowing the Midshipmen out 55-3 to start the season. Troy will be much more prepared. Play: Troy +14.

Florida International +7.5 at Liberty, over/under: 59. Florida International remains one of the better-coached Group of Five conference teams under Butch Davis. The Golden Panthers will have a better plan for Liberty quarterback Malik Willis than Western Kentucky did in an upset loss a week ago. Lean: Florida International +7.5.

SEC

Mississippi +14 at Florida, over/under: 57.5. Florida’s defense is going to be outstanding, but it’s hard to imagine the offense being explosive enough to merit this large of a number. Grab +14 while it’s available because it looks like it will be gone by gameday. Play: Mississippi +14.

Kentucky +8 at Auburn, over/under: 49.5. The return of quarterback Bo Nix, who was quietly a major disappointment last year, is concealing the fact that Auburn has little experience almost anywhere else on the roster. Kentucky has a continuity edge, importantly on defense and with now-healthy quarterback Terry Wilson. Lean: Kentucky +8.

Mississippi State +17 at LSU, over/under: 57. There was one +17 available in town, which elevates this to a lean. LSU’s power rating is too boosted from last season’s national championship team even though, from the coaching staff to the roster, everything is completely different this year. Lean: Mississippi State +17.

Vanderbilt +30.5 at Texas A&M, over/under: 46. While the Commodores may be decent defensively, they lose everyone from last year’s offense and will find it hard to score all year. The Aggies are experienced on both sides of the ball, making this an early-season mismatch. Guess: Texas A&M -30.5.

Tennessee -3.5 at South Carolina, over/under: 44. Number looks right, but Tennessee has a higher ceiling than South Carolina with coach Jeremy Pruitt bringing in an embarrassment of recruiting riches. I would rather be early than late on the Volunteers. Guess: Tennessee -3.5.

Alabama -27.5 at Missouri, over/under: 56.5. Nick Saban has covered all but one opener in his 13 seasons at Alabama, and by an average of nearly 10 points per game. Now this year he gets a Missouri team breaking in a first-year head coach, new offense and beset by coronavirus infections in the summer. Guess: Alabama -27.5.

Arkansas +28 at Georgia, over/under: 52.5. Georgia obviously presents a talent mismatch, but everything points towards a backdoor cover being wide open for Arkansas here. The Bulldogs have higher aspirations and may take it easy late in the game before even considering new Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman is a former assistant and close friend of Georgia’s Kirby Smart. Guess: Arkansas +28.

Sun Belt

Georgia Southern +11.5 at Louisiana-Lafayette, over/under: 51.5. Louisiana ranks above-average on both sides of the ball through two games despite a relatively strong strength of schedule. It’s hard to know what to expect out of Georgia Southern after last week’s game against Florida Atlantic was canceled, and it barely edged Campbell with half of its team out for coronavirus in week 1. Lean: Louisiana-Lafayette -11.5.

UTEP +10 at UL-Monroe, over/under: 50. Among teams currently playing, these are the worst two in the nation per the SP+ rankings. In other words, a double-digit spread is a stretch. Lean: UTEP +10.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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