College football by the odds: 20 win-total plays for the 2021 season

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Morry Gash / AP

Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz throws a pass during a game against Illinois Friday, Oct. 23, 2020, in Madison, Wis. The Badgers have proven players at every position this season.

Wed, Aug 25, 2021 (2 a.m.)

College football season kicks off in three days with a slate of four games on Saturday serving as an appetizer ahead of the first full schedule next weekend.

That means, after a long summer of betting, the market is pretty much in place as far as futures and season-long wagers. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars have been wagered in sports books to help bookmakers get close to true prices in areas like season win totals.

There may be one notable exception locally with a relatively soft market worth looking to attack. South Point decided to break from the norm this season by posting conference win totals for every team instead of hanging the traditional, full regular-season versions.

With no established numbers at hundreds of sports books around the world, conference win totals should theoretically be easier for gamblers to beat. It’s a throwback mentality from the South Point, which is challenging bettors to match wits with its formidable bookmaking team via the unique offering, and should be applauded.

Let’s show appreciation by trying to find some winners. I’ve picked two of South Point’s win totals from each college football conference — one over and one under per league — below.

Air Force over 4 Mountain West Conference wins at -110

The Falcons might be the most well-rounded team in the MWC, returning an amount of talent that’s usually uncharacteristic for a service academy. They have one sure loss on the conference schedule, a trip to Boise State on Sept. 16, but otherwise should be competitive in every game and frustrate opponents with their trademark physicality.  

Arkansas under 2.5 Southeastern Conference wins at -120

The Razorbacks were surprisingly competitive last year in coach Sam Pittman’s first season, but that’s inflating their prices this season. There’s a massive gap in talent between the other six teams in the SEC West and Arkansas, which also doesn’t get any favors in drawing Georgia for one of its inter-division matchups.  

Ball State under 5.5 Mid-American Conference wins at -110

They’re called “dream seasons” for a reason — they don’t come around often. Everything broke right for the Cardinals to win their first MAC title in 24 years last season, and with some expected regression in the turnover and defensive departments, a repeat is highly unlikely.

Cincinnati under 7.5 American Athletic Conference wins at -110

The AAC was the toughest nonpower conference last year and it looks even better this year, making it hard to ask any team to go undefeated even if Cincinnati managed it a year ago. The Bearcats do catch a break in getting UCF and SMU, quite possibly the next two best teams in the conference, at home but one of those two should be able to upset them.    

Eastern Michigan over 3.5 MAC wins at -125

Close-game luck is going to flip for the Eagles at some point as they’ve been unfortunate to lose seven of their last nine contests decided by a touchdown or less. Chris Creighton is one of the conference’s better coaches, and Preston Hutchison could emerge as one of its best quarterbacks.

Florida International over 2.5 Conference USA wins at Even money

For some teams, you just have to throw out what happened during a bizarre season last year. Exhibit A: The Golden Panthers. Florida International was seen as a darkhorse pick to win the conference because it was as wrecked by COVID-19 outbreaks as any program in the country and went winless. It should get back on track this season.

Kansas State over 3 Big 12 Conference wins at -125

The primary problem with the Wildcats last season was their quarterback play after Skylar Thompson went down, but he’s back as a sixth-year senior this year with quite a lot around him. Kansas State may double this win total and finish in the top half of the Big 12.

Louisiana under 7 Sun Belt Conference wins at -105

This is my least confident play included here, but it was difficult finding another Sun Belt under next to Coastal Carolina, one I’ve already covered. The Rajun Cajuns have leaned heavily on current Las Vegas Raider Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell the last few years at running back, however, and it may take some adjustment playing without the departed duo.

Louisville over 4 Atlantic Coast Conference wins at -120

Louisville has a brutal slate of nonconference games with Ole Miss, Kentucky and UCF on the docket, but those contests thankfully don’t matter for these purposes. Possibilities open up in a big way in ACC play where the Cardinals look like the clear second-best team in the ACC Atlantic Division behind Clemson.

Mississippi State over 2.5 SEC wins at Even money

Mike Leach-coached teams traditionally have their best seasons when no one is counting on anything out of them. Well, the takes about the SEC being too much for Leach and his Air Raid attack being figured out are pouring in now. Leach has evolved before, and given his prowess from a betting perspective, it’s worth counting on him to do it again.

North Carolina under 6.5 ACC wins at +110

Sure, Sam Howell is an electric quarterback, but he has less around him than many realize. Nearly Howell’s whole receiving corps is inexperienced, and the Tar Heels’ defense was a sieve a year ago. A more experienced and explosive Miami team should be the rightful favorite in the ACC Coastal Division.    

Northwestern under 4 Big Ten Conference wins at -115

The Wildcats seem to eclipse expectations every year, but they’re really up against it this year. They’re one of the least experienced Power Five conference teams and unlikely to field one of the nation’s best defenses for the second year in a row given the lack of continuity.

Old Dominion under 2.5 Conference USA wins at -120

The Monarchs didn’t play at all last year, leading to a rash of transfers that means they’ll be breaking in an entirely new team with first-year coach Ricky Rahne. The season, therefore, will be more about building toward the future as it looks unavoidable that Old Dominion will rank as one of the worst teams in the nation.  

Oregon under 7 Pac-12 Conference wins at Even money

Oregon might be the trendiest College Football Playoff sleeper, which is a bit curious coming off of a season where it went 4-3 including losses to poor California and Oregon State teams. Reminder: Oregon only won the Pac-12 on a coronavirus technicality when Washington couldn't compete. The Ducks will be better this year, but without a proven difference-maker at quarterback, the hype has gone overboard.  

SMU over 4.5 wins AAC wins at Even money

Think of the Mustangs as the Raiders of college football: They could do some real damage if they could field any semblance of a defense. With Jim Leavitt stepping in as defensive coordinator, that may just happen and catapult them near the top of the AAC standings.

Troy over 3.5 Sun Belt wins at -140

Troy brings back as many starters as anyone in its conference and supplemented it with a productive slew of transfers. With bad luck in close games and turnovers a year ago, Troy was already better than most realized and now they could be a longshot conference championship contender.

UNR under 5.5 MWC wins at -120

The Wolf Pack might have the Mountain West’s best quarterback in Carson Strong, but also the toughest schedule with road trips to Boise State, Fresno State and San Diego State. The MWC West is going to be a grind with five teams having major reasons for optimism, making it quite possible that parity prevails and none of them go 6-2 or better.

Washington State over 3.5 Pac-12 wins at +140

The Cougars were better than their 1-3 record a year ago considering they outgained their opponents by nearly 1 yard per play but were undone by ill-timed collapses on defense. With a large number of transfers coming in to improve the defense, they should be able to at least reach .500.  

West Virginia under 5.5 Big 12 wins at -140

All the teams in the Big 12’s middle class appear to have improved except West Virginia, which is having to deal with a mass exodus from a defense that elevated the program last season. The Mountaineers’ offense was mediocre and may still be a step behind all their biggest opposition.  

Wisconsin over 7.5 Big Ten wins at -115

A popular topic of conversation in the college football world is what team has the best College Football Playoff chance beyond Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia and Ohio State. To me, it’s Wisconsin — by a wide margin. The Badgers have proven players at every position and a quarterback who has at least flashed star potential in Graham Mertz.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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