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I desperately wanted to find another college football play from today’s slate for this column. Alas, it didn’t happen.
My only play on the first day of college football will be my previously placed wager on Nebraska -7 against Illinois. Instead of forcing another pick — UTEP -10 would have been the choice but the double digits just put it a smidge out of reach — I’ll look ahead to Thursday’s slate to find something else.
It’s a long season, and action for action’s sake is an approach that will torpedo a bankroll. I can’t have that here, especially not after a winless showing last week.
The weekend wagers’ bottom line is still flush, however, and hopefully football can only help pad it more. Happy football season.
Read below for the weekly five picks spread across five sports. Records are attached individually by sport, with the cumulative at the bottom of the page. The monetary figure is calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing a $100 wager on each pick. Any picks outside of the column will be linked and included in the record total. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.
Golf (17-10, $984.94): Tony Finau -115 vs. Webb Simpson head-to-head in third round of BMW Championship (Circa Sports)
Finau has started slow this week following his breakthrough win at The Northern Trust in the second tournament of the PGA Tour playoffs on Monday, but he won't stay down for long. Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Md. where the BMW is being played is too suited for his strengths. It's awarded bombers off the tee all week, and Finau is too good in that area to not take advantage. This would usually be a fair price on this matchup, but not in this case. Simpson is more iron-driven, a skillset not as correlated with success this week. They both sit at 5-under through Friday's action but Finau, who's currently first in the FedEx points standings, is more likely to climb the leaderboard and claim a top position going into next week's Tour Championship.
MLB (8-8, $23.85): Miami Marlins +105 vs. Cincinnati Reds (Circa)
It feels like I’ve stubbornly bet the Marlins a handful of times in this space, but I can’t stop now. Not with this price. Yes, the Reds are hot and the better overall team but not enough to make up for the fact that they’re starting Vladimir Gutierrez against the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara. The latter is a far better pitcher, enough so that the Marlins should be a short favorite in this spot instead of a short underdog. Despite my continued confidence, Miami seems destined to finish with one of the worst records in the league but I still refuse to believe it’s actually one of the worst teams in the league. Their Pythagorean expected record is seven wins above their current 53-75, so maybe the Marlins are due for a bit of positive regression.
NASCAR (17-18, $4.12): Joey Logano -110 head-to-head vs. Ryan Blaney in Coke Zero Sugar 400 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Joey Logano drives during a NASCAR Cup Series auto race Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020, in Las Vegas.
There’s nothing harder in auto sports than trying to profit off of superspeedway races like this weekend’s Cup contest in Daytona given that a handful of crashes are likely to wipe away a large portion of the field. But a few drivers have mastered the craft of restrictor-plate racing with Logano chief among them. Logano was all set to win the season-opening race at Daytona before a crash on the last lap led to Michael McDowell becoming a surprise champion. In all likelihood, he’s going to be right there again. And, even if he’s not, it seems quite possible that a prospective wreck involving him could also swallow up his teammate Blaney. Team Penske traditionally runs up front, eschewing strategy to wait back and avoid the big collisions and therefore putting them at risk to have multiple cars taken out in the event of a “big one.” Blaney has performed well on superspeedways in his own right, but Logano has been better this season and deserves to be more than a pick’em in the matchup.
UFC (14-15, -$84.07): Alessio Di Chirico by TKO/KO or submission +175 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (Boyd Sports)
Steam has pushed Di Chirico from a moderate to a big favorite over Alhassan, as one of Italy’s best fighters opened as low as -150 but now sits as high as -260, and the move makes sense. But the exotics on him to finish haven’t shifted accordingly. At least not at some books. Di Chirico has both knockout and submission ability, and in the smaller cage at the UFC’s Apex facility, Alhassan will have less room to stay away from him. Alhassan has only been stopped once in his fighting career, but he arguably hasn’t fought anyone of Di Chirico’s caliber. Di Chirico has lost three of four but he’s been facing the highest reaches of the middleweight division. This is a chance to buy low on the dangerous veteran, one that’s no longer available on the traditional moneyline.
College football (0-0, $0): Appalachian State -10 vs. East Carolina (Circa Sports)
This spread has inched down throughout the summer to now get within bettable territory at a key number. The Mountaineers present mismatches in multiple spots on the field for the Pirates and should prevail by at least two touchdowns in this neutral-site game next Thursday in Charlotte. Appalachian State had one of the nation’s best defenses and run games last year, neither of which East Carolina is prepared to handle. The Mountaineers attack with a steady stream of running backs checking in, keeping themselves fresh and building an advantage against overmatched opponents. They beat seven of their 12 opponents last year by double digits, and this season should start similarly.
Weekend wagers all-time: 169-156, $4,866.44
Previous pending wagers: Nebraska -7 at Illinois in Week 0; UCF -3 vs. Boise State in Week 1; Texas over 8.5 wins +110; Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 wins -125; Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East +150; Georgia 10-to-1 to win College Football Playoff; Baltimore Ravens 20-to-1 to win Super Bowl; Jon Rahm 12-to-1 to win 2022 Masters; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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