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The first-ever Saturday night primetime NFL game locally put a brief pause in the Sunday Sweats column last week, but it’s back for Week 17.
Just like with the point spreads, I’d preach exercising discretion when betting exotics on the highly volatile final slate of regular season. But for those looking to diversify their wagers before kickoff tomorrow morning, maybe the below can help.
Read this week’s column below. For accounting purposes, all plays outside of the pick’em will be linked and counted in the Sunday Sweats records. The records are attached to each individual category and totaled at the bottom of the page with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.
Tasty Total (11-8, $200.01): Seahawks vs. 49ers over 45.5 points (South Point)
Five straight games between these teams have gone over, which sounds like the type of trend I may typically mock for being used to justify a wager. But it might hold some value here. It illustrates how strong of a handle 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has on his divisional rival’s defense. With homefield advantage technically within reach, Seattle is expected to score its share of points. The question is if San Francisco can keep up, and given what it’s done previously in the matchup, I think there’s a good chance the 49ers can in the offense-friendly State Farm Stadium.
Two-team Teaser (8-7, -$40.23): New York Giants +7.5 & Miami Dolphins +8.5 -120 (William Hill)
I’m not really interested in a Week 17 teaser, but this one is just too textbook to ignore. It allows the opportunity to pass through both the 3 and 7 in two games with particularly low totals — the Giants/Cowboys over/under is 44 while Dolphins/Bills is 42. It’s a bonus that both sides have something to play for with their playoff hopes alive. Both these lines could be going down so get this now.
Moneyline parlay (8-7, $1,367.26): Chicago Bears & Philadelphia Eagles +770 (Stations)
I give both of these underdogs a better chance to win than the market at large, and Stations is offering prices higher than the consensus with Chicago available at +180 hosting Green Bay and Philadelphia at +170 hosting Washington. Both the Bears’ and Eagles’ offense have made big strides down the stretch of the season, and I’m betting on the leaps being sustainable. This probably doesn’t win but it has a better probability than 12 percent, which is what this line implies.
Prop-hunting* (12-18, -$636.71): Raiders tight end Jason Witten to score a touchdown +650 (Boyd)
Sigh. I guess I’m going with two Raiders’ props this week, and as the aforementioned record implies, Raiders’ props haven’t gone well this season. This one would look borderline terrible any other week, but I think the Raiders are going to be running plays for Witten in the red zone. They’ve done so sporadically throughout the year with a noticeable increase last week. I’m expecting even more this week with Las Vegas wanting to give Witten a moment on a record-breaking day and potentially send him off with a score in the last game of his career. I’m breaking another unofficial personal rule in betting almost entirely on a narrative, but this is the rare case where a narrative holds some value that isn’t factored into the line, or at least not factored in enough.
Non-football play (9-7, $210.12): Boston Celtics -8 at Detroit Pistons (Circa)
The Pistons are the worst team in the NBA, and I’m not hesitating any good chance to bet against them. And yes, I consider this a good chance to bet against them. Sure, Detroit beat Boston last night but it’s highly unlikely to repeat. The Celtics missed their last 11 shots, including seven 3-pointers, after sleepwalking through the first half of the game. I’m not high on Boston this year — and even hold an under win total — but it’s in a different class than Detroit. This number should be closer to 10.
Sunday Sweats overall record: 48-47, $1,100.45
*Check tomorrow’s Raider gameday section for another prop bet.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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