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The first leg of the moneyline-rollover parlay is complete.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might not have made it look as easy as expected but they still prevailed with a 31-23 win over the Washington Football Team to keep my makeshift future alive.
To kick off the column this week, as promised, I’ll put the resulting $126.32 back in action on the +150 Tampa Bay moneyline at South Point as a bonus pick. That’s the best price available in town as the Buccaneers are more commonly a +145 underdog at the Saints.
More shopping for the best prices continues below with our usual array of categories.
Read on for the divisional-round version of the Sunday Sweats column. For accounting purposes, all plays outside of the pick’em will be linked and counted in the record. The records are attached to each individual category and totaled at the bottom of the page with the monetary figure calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing $100 on each play.
Tasty Total (13-8, $381.83): Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills under 50 points (Wynn)
This looked like a decent under spot to begin with, but it’s gotten a boost in the last couple days with updated forecasts calling for more wind. No weather element is more detrimental to offensive performance to wind, even if one of these teams (Baltimore) rates as the run-heaviest team in the league. The Bills are mediocre defending the run but they’re well-coached — they’ll have a game plan in place to at least limit Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. I similarly trust the Ravens’ staff, which put together a brilliant plan in a dead-under 17-10 win over the Titans last week, to do what many others haven’t been able to do and put together a scheme to make it hard on the Bills to move the ball.
Two-team teaser (9-8, -$56.90): Baltimore Ravens +9 & Kansas City Chiefs -4 at -120 (William Hill)
The Ravens are a great teaser play this week but there’s not much else available on the board. The most popular side to pair with Baltimore will be Green Bay, teasing the home team down to a de facto pick’em at -0.5. But I don’t think there’s enough value there. In fact, I’m more tempted to tease Los Angeles up to +12.5. My favorite approach is to ignore that game all together, though, and look toward the one true mismatch on the slate. The Chiefs are way better than the Browns and should have no problem dispatching them. Not getting through the 3 is a pretty risky teaser strategy — and why I won’t be betting this myself — but it’s the best option this week.
Moneyline parlay (8-9, $1,167.26): Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs & Tampa Bay Buccaneers +794 (Circa Sports)
This is in no way smart, but let’s be honest: There are going to be a lot of moneyline parlays coming in this weekend tying everyone’s four straight-up picks together. Here are mine. I tried to get creative and build a combination without adding to aforementioned exposures on Baltimore and Tampa Bay, but with so few options on the NFL board, it was basically impossible to do so while still finding a decent payout. So let’s straight gamble.
Prop-hunting (13-20, -$626.71): Jared Cook anytime touchdown scorer +250 (Boyd)
My real prop strategy for this weekend will be to look for things not to happen, i.e. betting unders and nos. But, partly because this category is still so far in the red and needs a boost, I’m going with what I think is a mispriced, high payout here. The Buccaneers have struggled to cover tight ends all year, so Cook should have his chances. He shouldn’t be available at more than 2-to-1.
Non-football play (9-9, $10.12): Max Holloway -160 vs. Calvin Kattar at UFC on ABC 1 (Stations)
Speaking of categories that need a reversal of fortune, this one is fading. It’s time for something new. The UFC returns just in time — and offers some value in the main event. Holloway should be around a -200 favorite against Kattar, a tough, heavy-handed recent revelation in the octagon. But Kattar hasn’t proven to be in Holloway’s class just yet. The former heavyweight champion is smoother and more seasoned, which should became apparent over the course of five rounds.
Sunday Sweats overall record: 53-54, $901.92
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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