Weekend wagers: Bets on UFC 263, Euro 2020 and more

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France’s Kylian Mbappe reacts during the international friendly soccer match between France and Bulgaria at the Stade De France in Saint Denis, North of Paris, France, Tuesday, June 8, 2021.

Sat, Jun 12, 2021 (2 a.m.)

Those starving for something to bet midday during the summer are in luck for the next month.

Euro 2020 is here to beef up already-heavy betting boards. It’s going to be fun but also tough for bettors.

Delayed a year for the coronavirus, the qualifying matches took place all the way back in 2019 to create a lot of uncertainty on how to interpret and apply team data. Soccer markets are probably the tightest in the world in the first place, and now there’s added difficulty.

So tread lightly but fire away nonetheless. I had to dig back to last July to find the last time soccer was covered in the weekend wagers column, but I’m happy to bring it back with a future wager on the tournament this week.

Read this week’s column below. Records are attached individually by sport, with the cumulative at the bottom of the page. The monetary figure is calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing a $100 wager on each pick. Any picks outside of the column will be linked and included in the record total. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.

MLB (5-4, $77.29): Cincinnati Reds -133 vs. Colorado Rockies (STN Sports)

Bookmakers keep opening the Reds too low, especially when they’re playing at home. Cincinnati’s offense rakes at Great American Ballpark, and Colorado’s Saturday starter German Marquez shouldn’t be the one to put an end to that. The Rockies are one of the worst teams in the league, and things aren’t going to turn around facing Reds starter Wade Miley. He’s having a better year than Marquez and should command more respect on the opening price. This probably closes almost 20 cents higher because the Reds are a great deal at these odds.

UFC (11-11, $230.93): Leon Edwards by KO/TKO vs. Nate Diaz +145 at UFC 263 (BConnected Sports)

The younger Diaz brother is now 36 years old and not the fighter he once was, largely because he doesn’t have the granite chin he once possessed. The 29-year-old Edwards is sure to test that at least once during a five-round pay-per-view fight tonight in Glendale, Ariz. Diaz gets hit too freely, and that’s a problem against a hard-hitting true welterweight. Diaz is more naturally a lightweight even though he hasn’t fought at that class in more than five years. Heck, he hasn’t fought at all in nearly two years, which is just another reason why this sets up well for Edwards. This bet is worth taking at any plus price. It’s moved to as far as -110 at other books, so it’s pretty surprising this large of a payout is available at all.

NASCAR (12-14, -$87.94): Austin Dillon +104 head-to-head vs. Christopher Bell in All-Star Race (BConnected Sports)

Some are surely surprised Dillon even qualified for NASCAR’s All-Star race considering it’s only because he won a season-opening duel, a preliminary event before Daytona. Bell won the higher-profile Daytona road race to clinch his spot and is having the stronger overall year. Too bad that doesn’t matter much here. Dillon is a specialist in the 550 horsepower package with strong history at Texas Motor Speedway, where he won a Cup race last July. There’s no way he should be an underdog.

NBA (11-9, $455.33): Los Angeles Clippers +360 series price vs. Utah Jazz (BConnected Sports)

Down 2-0 in a series? No big deal to the Clippers. I say that only partly in jest after Los Angeles survived the first round despite arguably being in an even more precarious position, down 2-0 after two home games to Dallas. The Clippers were clearly better than the Mavericks and it eventually bore out over a seven-game series. The margin is much slimmer here, but I think it’s true again. It was tough to go play two games in Utah after a seven-game series but Los Angeles was in position to Game 1 and ran into a shooting buzzsaw in Game 2. The Clippers should win each of the next two games at Staples Center to tie the series and turn it into a de facto best of three. They may still fall short, but if you believe they’re winning the next two like I do, then +360 is a must-take.

Soccer (5-5, -$45.10): France to win Euro 2020 at 6-to-1 (Circa Sports)

This is the best price in the world on the best team in the world. That’s too good to pass up. Global sports books that take the largest wagers on soccer have France at below 4-to-1 to win this year’s delayed version of the Euros. That feels like a truer price than 6-to-1. Maybe Circa has just taken more action on Belgium and England, the two sides it has at shorter odds than France. Whatever the reason, I’m not complaining. I’m just happy to spend the next month rooting for the likes of Kylian Mbappe, Karim Benzema and Antonie Griezmann.

Weekend wagers column year to date: 141-139, $2,756.65

Previous pending future wagers: Brooklyn Nets to win NBA Finals +505; Milwaukee Bucks to win NBA Finals +745

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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