Odds to win the Midwest Region
Illinois — 3-to-2
Houston — 3-to-1
Oklahoma State — 4-to-1
West Virginia — 6-to-1
Tennessee — 10-to-1
Loyola-Chicago — 10-to-1
San Diego State — 12-to-1
Rutgers — 16-to-1
Georgia Tech — 20-to-1
Syracuse — 25-to-1
Clemson — 25-to-1
Oregon State — 35-to-1
Liberty — 80-to-1
Morehead State — 80-to-1
Cleveland State — 100-to-1
Drexel — 100-to-1
Odds from BetMGM.
Pick: Houston 3-to-1 This is the best regional future available to make. Houston is being immensely undervalued and has a much higher probability of reaching the Final Four. The Cougars' path to the Elite 8 is easier than the Illini's, and even if they both get there, it will be a near pick'em matchup.
Related Coverage
Note: This is part 2 of a four-part series previewing the NCAA Tournament with picks on every game. Check out part 1 here and come back the next two days for the final two columns.
No college basketball team closed the season better than Illinois and therefore, appropriately and predictably, no college basketball team is a hotter bet to win the NCAA Tournament than Illinois.
The Fighting Illini sit second in the future odds at the outset of the NCAA Tournament, trimming from 6-to-1 to 9-to-2 after winning the Big Ten Conference Tournament on Selection Sunday. It’s quietly been a remarkable journey down the odds board for Illinois, which opened at 100-to-1 to win the title last May. That price can’t be looked back on with much scorn considering Illinois hadn’t advanced to the tournament in eight years and was solid but unspectacular with mostly the same team a year ago.
More importantly, no one seemed to be betting it. There are no stories of big 100-to-1 Illinois tickets floating around out there like there are on fellow Big Ten No. 1 seed Michigan.
No, the rush on Illinois appears to have materialized in the last couple weeks. The Illini were 10-to-1 in the futures market before a 76-53 blowout victory at Michigan on March 2 that seemed to announce their status as a primary contender and popular pick.
Going into March, William Hill didn’t even list Illinois as one of the top 10 most bet-on teams in the futures market. After Selection Sunday, the Illini climbed to third overall in tickets, behind only Gonzaga and Iowa.
They leapfrogged Baylor at William Hill, going from a 5-to-1 third choice to a 4-to-1 second choice behind Gonzaga. So, yes, there’s going to be an unforeseen contingent of Illinois fans at local watch parties all throughout the tournament.
And based on the Illini’s draw in the Midwest Region, they may be set up for their fair share of suspense. Illinois may potentially have to beat mid-major powerhouse Loyola-Chicago, presumptive NBA Draft No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State and analytics darling Houston in three straight rounds to reach Final Four.
There’s no other No. 1 seed with that tough of a potential path. That’s slowing neither bettors nor those filling out brackets, however, as Illinois sits as the second-most popular title pick behind Gonzaga at all web sites running pools.
No matter who prevails, this is going to be an exciting, action-packed region — perhaps the most excited, action-packed region. Let’s get to prognosticating how it will play out.
Read below for picks on every first-round game in the Midwest region, separated into three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.
No. 4 seed Oklahoma State -7.5 vs. No. 13 seed Liberty, over/under: 141. Cade Cunningham took over and showed out in the Big 12 Conference Tournament, and the Cowboys will need him to do the same in the NCAA Tournament. If not, they’re a prime candidate to go home early. Maybe they did earn the right to a better seed than they received, as many have opined, but they aren’t truly one of the best 16 teams in the nation. In fact, they might be the most overrated team in the nation based on their efficiency metrics. It’s easy to get seduced by a talent like Cunningham but he shouldn’t fully conceal a flawed team that’s mediocre in most areas. Liberty is solid across the board and played a tougher schedule than most realize. This should be close. Play: Liberty +7.5.
No. 8 seed Loyola-Chicago -3 vs. No. 9 seed Georgia Tech, over/under: 126. I’m skeptical of the much-praised seven-game winning streak Georgia Tech has recently gone on. The best win was the latest, an 80-75 triumph against Florida State as 5-point underdogs in the ACC Tournament championship game. That was a tremendous spot for the Yellow Jackets, coming off of a day rest after Virginia pulled out of the event because of COVID-19 factors while Florida State was in a back-to-back after a fast-paced game against North Carolina. It was also a great matchup for the Yellow Jackets as the Seminoles high-turnover style played into their attacking defensive philosophy. Loyola is not going to make nearly as many mistakes. Loyola big man Cameron Krutwig will be the best offensive player on the floor, and the Ramblers' defensive efficiency is ranked first in the nation by kenpom.com. Play: Loyola-Chicago -3.
No. 6 seed San Diego State -3 vs. No. 11 seed Syracuse, over/under: 138.5. The narrative indicates that Syracuse’s zone overwhelms teams come tournament time, but it shouldn’t much bother San Diego State. The Aztecs can shoot over it. But San Diego State’s best asset is its defense, particularly its focus on running opponents off of the 3-point line. That’s what should concern Syracuse. The Orange can get hot from long range, and that’s their best path to victory, but they aren’t a particularly strong shooting team. Despite comparisons to Syracuse teams of the past, this year’s version isn’t the same caliber. The Orange probably didn’t deserve to be in the tournament while, if anything, the Aztecs should have gotten a better seed. Play: San Diego State -3.
No. 3 seed West Virginia -12.5 vs. No. 14 seed Morehead State, over/under: 137.5. Morehead State faced some relatively tough non-conference opposition this season — and got walloped every time. No wonder West Virginia has gotten steamed after opening a 10.5-point favorite. The hike in price makes it sketchier to back a Mountaineers team that’s less explosive than Bob Huggins’ best squads of the past. This would have been a nightmare matchup for the turnover-prone Eagles in past years, but this season’s Mountaineers are more forgiving on the defensive end. That might allow Morehead State to hang around for a while, but it’s difficult to imagine it actually threatening for the upset. Lean: West Virginia -12.5.
No. 7 seed Clemson +1.5 vs. No. 10 seed Rutgers, over/under: 125.5. Rutgers has gotten a fair amount of love from the betting market all year and it’s hard to figure out why. The Scarlet Knights are pretty ordinary. Granted, the Tigers are pretty ordinary too. But they’re not being asked to lay a price, albeit a small one. These teams are equally average and taking the points either way is the wisest approach. Guess: Clemson +1.5.
No. 2 seed Houston -20 vs. No. 15 seed Cleveland State, over/under: 125. The Vikings like to play bully ball, imposing a physicality on opponents to wear them down, force them into bad shots and get beaten on the boards. There might not be a worse matchup for the style than Houston, which plays relatively similar but to a much higher standard. The Cougars are the secret juggernaut no one is talking about in the tournament. They’re second most efficient team in the nation by barttorvik.com’s numbers. It’s going to take a Herculean effort to take Houston out, one that Cleveland State is not capable of providing. Guess: Houston -20.
No. 1 seed Illinois -22.5 vs. No. 16 seed Drexel, over/under: 144.5. There’s been a lot of talk about how Illinois got easily the worst draw out of the top-four seeds. It’s all true and it starts right away. Drexel is by far the best No. 16 seed in the tournament. The Dragons have even been as efficient as a couple No. 13 (UNC-Greensboro) and No. 14 (Morehead State) seeds according to numbers at kenpom.com and barttorvik.com. That doesn’t mean they’re going to threaten the Illini. They don’t have enough talent for that, but they will keep bombing away even if they’re getting blown out and have players who shoot well enough to sink said bombs. A backdoor cover seems like a strong possibility. Guess: Drexel +22.5.
No. 5 seed Tennessee -8 vs. No. 12 seed Oregon State, over/under: 131. Tennessee has the talent; Oregon State has the momentum. This comes down to the classic dilemma between taking the better team or the team playing better at the moment. Oregon State’s run through the Pac-12 Conference Tournament is nothing to discount, even though it only won by a total of six points against UCLA and Colorado. That’s not an easy path, and the other win, a 75-64 win over Oregon, was the crown jewel. But the number has gotten away. There might have been slight value at the opener of Oregon State +9 but it’s since gotten bashed right into place, sitting at 7.5 at most sports books. Guess: Oregon State +8.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
Join the Discussion:
Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.
Full comments policy