NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the East Region

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Mark Humphrey / Associated Press

Alabama players celebrate after beating LSU in the championship game at the NCAA college basketball Southeastern Conference Tournament Sunday, March 14, 2021, in Nashville, Tenn.

Published Thu, Mar 18, 2021 (2 a.m.)

Updated Fri, Mar 19, 2021 (10:11 a.m.)

Odds to win the East Region

Michigan — +165

Alabama — +425

Texas — 5-to-1

Florida State — 7-to-1

BYU — 12-to-1

UConn — 12-to-1

Colorado — 18-to-1

St. Bonaventure — 20-to-1

LSU — 25-to-1

Maryland — 25-to-1

Michigan State — 60-to-1

UCLA — 60-to-1

Georgetown — 60-to-1

UNC-Greensboro — 200-to-1

Abilene Christian — 20-to-1

Iona — 500-to-1

Mount St. Mary's — 500-to-1

Texas Southern — 500-to-1

Numbers from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Pick: Florida State 7-to-1 Truth be told, I won't be making any future bets on this region. The odds appear to be airtight. If forced, however, Florida State at 7-to-1 may just barely fall in range. A potential second-round matchup with Colorado scares me — so much so that I'd even consider Colorado 18-to-1 – but Florida State matches up better with the higher-ranked teams in the region if those matchups should occur.

Note: This is part 3 of a four-part series previewing the NCAA Tournament with picks on every game. Check out part 1 here, part 2 here and come back tomorrow for the final installment.

This year’s East Region feels like the NCAA Tournament institution against the insurgents.

Few programs have found more March Madness success recently than No. 1 seed Michigan, which has reached two Final Fours and five Sweet 16s while amassing 18 tournament wins over the last eight years. The next seven teams in the region by the odds, all those at 20-to-1 or less in futures to reach the national semifinals, have combined for only one Final Four, three Sweet 16s and 16 victories over the same span.

And the bulk of that production comes from one year — 2014 when No. 7 seed Connecticut won the national championship.

Elsewhere, the contenders consist of a group of teams who have either experienced annual tournament disappointment or never really gotten the chance at it to begin with in this era.

No. 2 seed Alabama has one tournament victory in the last decade. No. 3 seed Texas has two.

No. 4 seed Florida State has made a couple runs but has only reached the Final Four once ever — in 1972.

Program histories won’t mean much once the tipoffs start, though. There’s a reason all these teams have themselves in position to break through this year, and they all got an additional boost with what the Wolverines have gone through the last couple weeks.

Michigan would have been a bigger favorite in this region — likely an odds-on favorite — before dropping three of its final five games and losing senior Isaiah Livers to an injury. The downturn and misfortune has caused their odds to win the title to go from as low as 3- to-1 in early March to as high as +950 currently.

That makes for an even better chance that an outsider eventually crashes the Final Four party.

Read below for picks on every first-round game in the East Region, separated into three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Check back after Thursday’s First Four games for updated picks.

No. 11 seed Michigan State -2.5 vs. No. 11 seed UCLA, over/under: 135.5. Priors matter, but do they matter this much? Expectations were significantly higher for the Spartans than they were for the Bruins this year and they probably still have the more talented roster. But what’s happened on the court over the last several months — especially for two teams that have played a decent sample of more than 25 games —needs to hold more weight this late in the year. And everything that’s happened on the court indicates UCLA is a better team. There’s not an overall efficiency metric available that would rate Michigan State over UCLA. Some shops opened the Bruins a favorite, and they should have stayed a favorite. Play: UCLA +2.5.

No. 8 seed LSU -1.5 vs. No. 9 seed St. Bonaventure, over/under: 144.5. A couple weeks ago, this line would might have been flipped and the Bonnies would have been slight favorites. The Tigers changed that by making a run through the SEC Tournament, covering in all three games and beating Ole Miss and Arkansas outright. The Bonnies were upset by Dayton to finish the regular season but then tore through the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament — thrashing Duquesne, St. Louis and VCU. St. Bonaventure’s conference-tournament run was more impressive than LSU’s, so why is it an underdog? Perception is one of the main reasons. Even if LSU has improved as much as the market is indicating, it doesn’t defend. St. Bonaventure defends viciously. Defense will be the difference. Play: St. Bonaventure +1.5.

No. 5 seed Colorado -5 vs. No. 12 seed Georgetown, over/under: 138. It feels like every year a team pulls off an improbable win in one of the bigger conference tournaments to steal an NCAA Tournament bid and then becomes overvalued. Georgetown is the leading suspect this year. The Hoyas pulled off four wins in four days at Madison Square Garden — complete with a storyline of coach Patrick Ewing’s security struggles in a venue where he used to headline — and are now the toast of college basketball. Georgetown, however, rates 295th in consistency by haslammetrics.com. In other words, it’s volatile and just as likely to implode in the tournament as soar like it did in the Big East Tournament. Colorado could contribute to that implosion with its imposing style. The Buffaloes have been a profitable bet all year and might be getting undervalued again. Play: Colorado -5.

No. 3 seed Texas -9 vs. No. 14 seed Abilene Christian, over/under: 140.5. Abilene Christian ranks first in the nation in defensive turnover percentage according to kenpom.com; Texas ranks 236th in offensive turnover percentage. The Wildcats have some matchup advantages here, more matchup advantages than most may realize. Sure, they’ll struggle with the Longhorns’ length and talent but they should be able to counter it with their passing, shooting and experience. Abilene Christian coach Joe Golding is renowned for his game plans, including one that allowed his team to hang with Texas Tech earlier in the year in a 51-44 loss. Abilene Christian has only gotten better since then. Texas should be prepared for a battle. Play: Abilene Christian +9.

No. 1 seed Michigan -26.5 vs. No. 16 seed Texas Southern, over/under: 154.5. Michigan faced a slate of five overmatched, mid-major opponents in non-conference play. The Wolverines didn’t beat any of them by this many points. Yes, Texas Southern may be the weakest of the bunch but wild blowouts aren’t really Michigan’s style. The Wolverines play under control and usually dismantle opponents more systematically. They’ll look to slow the game down, which should help the Tigers stay within the number. Texas Southern showed a lot of heart in coming back against Mount St. Mary’s in a First Four game and as the second-most experienced team in the tournament, behind only Georgia Tech per kenpom.com, won’t be content to go out without a fight. The Tigers keep it respectable. Lean: Texas Southern +26.5.

No. 6 seed BYU -4.5 vs. No. 11 seed UCLA, over/under: 139. Johnny Juzang played a key role in bringing the Bruins back to beat Michigan State in overtime of the teams’ First Four game on Thursday night and now he may be out against BYU. The loss of Juzang, who reportedly sprained an ankle, is significant but it might not be as significant as this line is making it out to be. The Cougars are a well-rounded, talented team that seemed to be a buy-on side coming into the tournament, but this is a lot of points to lay against a more athletic Bruins’ team. There’s also some familiarity and trust with UCLA coach Mick Cronin as opposed to BYU’s Mark Pope, who’s making his NCAA Tournament debut.  Lean: UCLA +4.5.

No. 4 seed Florida State -11 vs. No. 13 seed UNC-Greensboro, over/under: 145. A lot of superlatives are being thrown around regarding the Seminoles, about how their length, athleticism and shooting ability should lead them to a deep run in the tournament. That remains to be seen, but all those attributes should at least cause UNC-Greensboro fits. This looks like a mismatch, a mismatch even larger than those most often seen in No. 4 seed vs. No. 13 seed games. Of course, that is reflected in the number as Florida State is favored by 3.5 or 4 points more than any of its No. 4 seed counterparts. And the number is rising after opening at -10, making it tougher to find any value on Florida State. Lean: Florida State -11.

No. 16 seed Texas Southern pick’em vs. No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s, over/under: 133. There’s a strength of schedule discrepancy here as Mount St. Mary’s Northeast Conference slate was a fair bit tougher than the one Texas Southern faced in the Southwest Athletic Conference. The Tigers’ offense is one-dimensional and predicated upon getting to the basket, and the Mountaineers are too well coached under Dan Engelstad not to force them out of their comfort zone. Lean: Mount St. Mary’s pick’em.

No. 7 seed Connecticut -3 vs. No. 10 seed Maryland, over/under: 130. The Huskies were on as much of an uptick as any team in the nation until going cold and losing a grinder of a game to Creighton in the Big East Conference Tournament. The defeat isn’t as much of a concern as the loss of point guard R.J. Cole late in the game. Cole exited with a concussion and his status is in doubt to start the NCAA Tournament. The market is reacting like he’s playing, however, with an extra point added to this spread since it opened. Maryland is less flashy than UConn, and even many of its own past teams, and relies instead on defensive intensity and offensive patience. The Terrapins should have trouble matching up with UConn star James Bouknight – assuming Cole is back to get the ball to him. Guess: UConn -3.

No. 2 seed Alabama -17 vs. No. 15 seed Iona, over/under: 147.5. The celebration of Rick Pitino returning to the tournament in his first year at Iona might be exhausting, but there’s no denying he’s one heck of a coach. And that he’s mastered the NCAA Tournament throughout his career. He’s not someone a bettor should want to lay 17 points against, even when he’s coming in with a mismatched team. Alabama is definitely a mismatch for Iona and holds a major talent edge. The Crimson Tide’s coach Nate Oats is no dummy either. The Crimson Tide will be a buy-on team later in the tournament, but the price is prohibitive to start. Guess: Iona +17.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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