Las Vegas Sun

By Case Keefer

Sat, Mar 20, 2021 (2 a.m.)

It’s not really madness unless a bettor is trying to juggle a bundle of college basketball bets with an entire assemblage of additional action.

The rest of the sports world isn’t stopping play for college basketball, so I’m not stopping betting. The NCAA Tournament will be included in this week’s five bets across five sports, but merely as one element like any other week.

Read this week’s weekend wagers’ column below. Records are attached individually by sport, with the cumulative at the bottom of the page. The monetary figure is calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing a $100 wager on each pick. Any picks outside of the column will be linked and included in the record total. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.

NHL (8-2, $552.42): Minnesota Wild +147 at Colorado Avalanche (Circa Sports)

I bet the Wild at +138 in their first game against the Avalanche this week. That didn’t work out; Colorado made a statement in dispatching Minnesota 5-1. But a key tenet of sports betting is not to overreact to one result. And I won’t. If I thought there was value before, I’m not going to pass up a line 10 cents higher. The Wild have been a goldmine to bet on all season, a team the market hasn’t been able to catch up to. Colorado is better but it’s not much better. Most of these teams’ advanced numbers indicate this line should be a little closer.     

NBA (5-4, $63.63): Los Angeles Lakers -4.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

The Hawks are one of the hottest teams in the league under interim coach Nate McMillan. They’ve won six straight games, and while I’m bullish on their long-term prospects, this looks like a tough spot flying across the country to start a west-coast trip. The Lakers are just as hot, having won and covered in all five since the All-Star Break. They seem to have adjusted to life without Anthony Davis. The Hawks’ win streak particularly leaves much to be desired in terms of competition considering they’ve beaten the Cavaliers, the Magic, the Kings, the Thunder and a depleted Raptors’ squad they edged by one point. The Lakers will be a big step up.  

College basketball (1-1, -$9.09): Abilene Christian first half +5 vs. Texas (Station Casinos)

Since I’ve already picked all of Saturday's games in the tournament, I figured it would be best to go with a derivative here. Maybe first-half is a better way to bet the Wildcats to begin with. The Longhorns may very well use their size to wear down their in-state first-round opponent, but that takes time. I think Abilene Christian plays good enough defense to hang with Texas throughout, but it should especially be able to do so in the opening 20 minutes.

Mixed martial arts (7-8, $101): Gregor Gillespie to win inside the distance against Brad Riddell at UFC Fight Night (Circa)

Few betting spots in the UFC are more attractive than a once-hyped prospect coming off his first loss. Gillespie had high expectations in the lightweight division before suffering an upset, flash, headkick knockout against Kevin Lee his last time out. Gillespie’s stock has taken a hit as a result, but it probably shouldn’t have. He’s still a highly-skilled fighter, one who can compete with most anyone at 155 pounds. The loss will likely inspire Gillespie to get back to his grappling, which he could use to submit Riddell on Saturday night. Gillespie by submission at +240 also looks like a good bet, but let’s play it a little safer here and just call for him to get the stoppage. A ground-and-pound victory also seems like a possibility.

NASCAR (8-8, $101.15): Kyle Larson Even money head-to-head vs. Denny Hamlin in Folds Of Honor QuikTrip 500 (William Hill)

Betting against Hamlin is always tough, but these odds simply look incorrect. The market seems to have some hesitation with Larson rejoining the Cup series, pricing him near the mid-tier. It shouldn’t. He’s immediately one of the drivers to beat every week. Larson was faster than Hamlin at both Las Vegas and Homestead – he won the former – and those tracks are the most similar NASCAR has visited so far this season to this week’s course in Atlanta. Larson early-season tear isn’t just a one-off tear; it’s something that’s going to last all season and longer.

Weekend betting column year to date: 109-98-1, $2,876.60

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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