Weekend wagers: Bets on NCAA Tournament, UFC 260 and more

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John Locher / Associated Press

Stipe Miocic sits in his corner after losing to Daniel Cormier in a heavyweight title mixed martial arts bout at UFC 226, Saturday, July 7, 2018, in Las Vegas.

Sat, Mar 27, 2021 (2 a.m.)

Futures and plus-payout wagers are a primary reason this weekend wagers endeavor has built such a large profit.

Let’s get back to them today. I’m making five bets across five sports as usual, but for perhaps the first time since the column debuted, all of them are at plus prices — well one is Even money, but close enough.

It’s a nice change of pace from a frustrating last week that snapped a win streak. The column was far from disaster but included a blowout loss, an injury-aided (to LeBron James) loss, a cancelation and a push.

This week’s picks might make everything a bit more feast or famine, but that’s a welcomed change. It’s still gambling after all.

Read this week’s weekend wagers’ column below. Records are attached individually by sport, with the cumulative at the bottom of the page. The monetary figure is calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing a $100 wager on each pick. Any picks outside of the column will be linked and included in the record total. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (7-4-1, $239.87): Brian Harman Even money vs. Bubba Watson in round of 16 World Golf Championships Match Play Even money (Station Casinos)

This might have a been a fair line a few years ago. It's not in 2021. Harman is playing far better than Watson, the 2018 champion of this event, and there's no justification for the latter being favored over the former. Harman is leading the 64-man bracket in strokes gained through the round-robin stage while Watson hasn't even been on the positive side of the advanced statistic. In other words, the two-time Masters champion was able to get through his group largely because of the poor play of his opponents. Harman got through because he outplayed the group — the best group in the event nonetheless with Patrick Cantlay, Carlos Ortiz and Hideki Matsuyama. Harman doesn't have the name recognition of Watson because he doesn't have the big-name titles but that might change after this weekend. Harman has a real chance to win this WGC event.   

Mixed martial arts (7-8, $101): Francis Ngannou to win in first round against Stipe Miocic at UFC 260 +250 (BetMGM)

There seems to be a strange stigma around the UFC 260 main event that a Ngannou pick equals a Miocic slight. It does not. The 38-year-old Miocic is deservedly considered the best heavyweight in UFC history. It’s just the 34-year-old Ngannou’s time now. Getting this high of a price on the hardest-hitting fighter in the world who has four straight first-round knockouts is absurd. Ngannou has fixed what went wrong in his unanimous-decision loss to Miocic three years ago. Betting him to win outright — available at as low as -130 locally — is also a smart wager but that’s not as mispriced as this option. There’s a strong chance Ngannou keeps his knockout tear alive.  

NASCAR (9-8, $201.15): Christopher Bell to win Food City Dirt Race +700 (South Point)

Uncertainty reigns for Sunday’s unique Cup race on the Bristol dirt course. The only thing that seems obvious is that Kyle Larson and Bell, two experienced and decorated dirt racers, deserve to be the favorites. Make that co-favorites. There’s no reason Larson should be so much lower, +250 at South Point, than Bell. Adam Stevens, Bell’s crew chief, also has a dirt-racing background to give the 26-year-old, who already won a race this year on the Daytona road course, an extra advantage. At the very least, he should be considered one of the two drivers to beat.     

Click to enlarge photo

The puck beats Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury for a goal as Colorado Avalanche right wing Valeri Nichushkin (13) and Golden Knights defenseman Alec Martinez (23) move into the play in the second period in Denver, Thursday, March 25, 2021.

NHL (8-3, $442.42): Colorado Avalanche to win West division +150 (BetMGM)

Sorry, Golden Knights’ fans. I’ve seen enough. No one, not even Vegas, is touching Colorado in the division now that it’s healthy. The Avalanche could move ahead of the Golden Knights in the standings with the second of their two-game set today at the Pepsi Center, and if they do, there might not be any looking back. Colorado has the second-best goal differential in the NHL, behind Tampa Bay, and highest expected goal percentage (by far). It’s turned out to be even worse luck than expected for the Golden Knights to be stuck in the Avalanche’s division this year. I came into the year with a lot of hockey futures but haven’t added any in the blog. Until now. Colorado should be the odds-on favorite in the West.  

College basketball (1-1-1, -$9.09): Gonzaga to win the national championship +150 (BetMGM)

Either MGM is trying to manage liability elsewhere or its risk team is lower on Gonzaga than any other sports book in Las Vegas. The shop had the best price on the Zags coming into the tournament, and it is the best price on the Zags going into the Sweet 16. I bet on Gonzaga back then, and I’m betting on Gonzaga again now. This number still represents value, and I’m not going to be afraid to double down on my positions if the opportunity is there. Gonzaga is likely going to encounter some trouble at some point of the tournament, but I still don’t see it losing.   

Weekend betting column year to date: 110-100-2, $2,776.60

Previous pending future wagers: Brooklyn Nets to win NBA Finals +505;  Milwaukee Bucks to win NBA Finals +745; Utah Jazz to win Northwest division +250; Philadelphia 76ers to win Atlantic division +300; Boston Celtics under 45.5 wins; Memphis Grizzlies over 31.5 wins; Dallas Mavericks to win Southwest division -145Villanova to win NCAA Tournament 15-to-1; Gonzaga to win NCAA Tournament +250; All NHL bets

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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