My hope for this week’s column is that it isn’t ruined by another juiced-up horse.
Yes, I’m still a little bitter over Medina Spirit denying Mandaloun at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. The best revenge is success, however, so I’m going to try to beat Medina Spirit again in today’s Preakness through local sports books’ fixed-odds betting.
To start this edition of weekend wagers, let’s split the column standard $100 bet between Concert Tour, $80 to win $240 at William Hill, and Keepmeinmind, $20 to win $375 at Circa Sports.
Concert Tour can challenge Medina Spirit, the favorite in the second leg of the Triple Crown, with early speed and Keepmeinmind could come on late as a longshot. I’ll place one more Preakness wager below, along with five bets spread out across five other sports.
Read this week’s column below. Records are attached individually by sport, with the cumulative at the bottom of the page. The monetary figure is calculated by the assumption of a bettor placing a $100 wager on each pick. Any picks outside of the column will be linked and included in the record total. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.
Golf (10-6-2, $235.11): Ryan Palmer Even money vs. Marc Leishman in third round of AT&T Byron Nelson (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Everyone in the field is seemingly beating up on TPC Craig Ranch, the new course being used for this annual event in the Dallas metro area. But Palmer has been beating up on it for years. The Texas native, who attended nearby North Texas before transferring to Texas A&M, holds the course record here and hasn't been all that far off through two rounds all things considered. He's 8-under par and maybe hasn't even shown his best stuff yet. Leishman is one stroke ahead and in good form after winning the Zurich Classic team event with Cameron Smith a few weeks back. His ceiling might be higher than Palmer's, but the Texan is more consistent. I trust Palmer more in any single round, especially on a course this familiar to him.
Horse racing (1-2, $-120): Concert Tour +130 vs. Medina Spirit head-to-head in the Preakness (Circa Sports)
Concert Tour never would have been an underdog in this matchup until the Kentucky Derby. And, yes, Medina Spirit prevailing in the biggest race matters but does it matter by more than 30 cents? I don’t think so. Baffert held Concert Tour out of the Derby because the shorter race at Pimlico Park fit him better. I was hoping to get +110 or better Concert Tour in a matchup against Medina Sprit. At +130, I’m not going to shy away.
MLB (3-2, $122.24): San Diego Padres -130 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (South Point)
San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. wears a mask after hearing that the team's baseball game against the San Francisco Giants had been postponed, Friday, Sept. 11, 2020, in San Diego, minutes before the scheduled first pitch.
The Padres should have some positive regression coming their way as their lineup is better than they’ve shown so far this season. The Cardinals should have some negative regression coming their way as they currently have one of the best records in baseball but are not one of the best teams in baseball. Based on this year alone, a pitching matchup between San Diego’s Chris Paddack and St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright is more or less a wash but the former has the higher upside going forward. I would play San Diego up to -140 here.
NHL (9-6, $221.79): Boston Bruins -115 vs. Washington Capitals in Game 1 (Station Sports)
Boston -125 looked like a short price to me for Game 1 when several sports books opened the line there. At -115, the Bruins are undeniably mispriced — win or lose. Yes, they have to go on the road to start the series against the Capitals but the Bruins have been the more efficient team by almost any metric. They’re also healthier, as the Capitals came down with several significant injuries towards the end of the season. Boston may not ever be available at this low of a price again in a series it should win with relative ease.
Mixed martial arts (9-10, $229.97): Beneil Dariush -160 vs. Tony Ferguson at UFC 262 (SuperBook)
Beneil Dariush, left, connects with a punch on Drakkar Klose in a lightweight bout during UFC 248 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Saturday, March 7, 2020. Dariush won with a second-round knockout.
There’s a lot I like on tonight’s pay-per-view card in Houston, but not a lot I love. I’ve regrettably decided to play it safe here and go with the biggest favorite I like with leans on underdogs Michael Chandler, Andrea Lee and Lando Vannata going by the wayside. This looks like the most mispriced fight with Ferguson being given too much credit for what he once was. The 37-year-old is no longer one of the division’s top fighters, having taken too much damage to lead to his recent two-fight downturn. He’s going to take a lot more damage against Dariush, who’s a brute with both his top game and power striking. This line should be shooting towards -200, not floating around -150.
NASCAR (11-11, $102.06): Alex Bowman +110 vs. William Byron head-to-head in Drydene 400 (William Hill)
This matchup seems to find betting boards every week, and usually, it’s right around -110 on both sides. The two Hendrick Motorsports teammates occasionally stretch to -120 favorites over one another, but I can’t ever remember this getting as high as the -130 Byron is laying this week. It’s curious timing, as Dover is a short, concrete track that seemingly fits better with Bowman’s profile. This isn’t a huge edge, but the NASCAR matchup odds have been tight lately. At least that’s how I’m explaining away my current losing streak. Bowman should be the one to snap it because he shouldn’t be available at a plus price.
Previous pending future wagers: Brooklyn Nets to win NBA Finals +505; Milwaukee Bucks to win NBA Finals +745; Los Angeles Clippers to win Western Conference +250; Utah Jazz to win Northwest division +250; Philadelphia 76ers to win Atlantic division +300; Boston Celtics under 45.5 wins; Memphis Grizzlies over 31.5 wins; Dallas Mavericks to win Southwest division -145; Colorado Avalanche to win West Division +150; Texas to win NCAA Tournament at 50-to-1; All preseason NHL bets
Weekend wagers betting column year to date: 121-118-1, $2,138.33
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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