Las Vegas Sun

By Case Keefer

Sat, Aug 13, 2022 (2 a.m.)

Football takes precedence.

That’s the general rule when it comes to sports betting in this country, and it extends to Weekend Wagers. The column started with a premise of making at least five bets on five different sports, and will get back to that setup shortly.

Intensive football preparations over the last two weeks just momentarily interrupted the flow. I’ve finished going through and pricing nearly all of the 163 teams split between the NFL and college football, and it’s time to continue translating some of that work into bets shared publicly. So, for this week’s Weekend Wagers, I’ll dabble in a couple of the usual current sports but focus more on a pair of future wagers in both the NFL and college football.

Read on for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (6-8-2, $5,607.50): Sam Burns +120 vs. Will Zalatoris in third round of FedEx St. Jude Championship (Caesars/William Hill)

$150 to win $180

I've spent the whole season — which is now drawing to a close with the FedEx Cup Playoffs over the next three weeks — fading both of these guys, mostly unsuccessfully. So it feels strange to be backing one of them now, but it's entirely a product of the price. I rate them about evenly going into the weekend at TPC Southwind in Memphis, making +120 too high of a price on Burns. Yes, Southwind is a course that fits with Zalatoris' second-shot strength but Burns isn't a negative course fit either. Zalatoris is notoriously a poor putter but has been keeping pace through the first two rounds on the green. That should be hard to carryover, and Burns could conversely get some better rolls over the weekend. The man is nicknamed "Bermuda Burns," for crissake, for his success on Southern courses like Southwind. He's not a better overall golfer than Zalatoris, but it's closer than this line indicates.  

MLB (14-6, $1,423): Milwaukee Brewers -121 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$363 to win $300

This opened as low as -105, which  made it one of the best single-bet baseball bets since the All-Star Break. That price didn't last long, but I’d still play it all the way up to at least -135 largely based on the major edge the Brewers will have on the mound in the second game of this all-important National League Central series. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright may have been as good as Brewers starter Corbin Burnes at his peak, but that was many years ago. Wainwright is now 40 years old, and Burnes is leading a new generation of pitchers through the majors. The Brewers can’t afford to drop games against the Cardinals with how tight the divisional race between the two teams sit, and they certainly can’t afford to do so with their best pitcher on the mound.

MLB (14-6, $1,423): Texas Rangers -105 vs. Seattle Mariners (Wynn)

$210 to win $200

Seattle shored up some of its rotation woes at the trade deadline by acquiring Luis Castillo, but not all of them. The Mariners are still at a disadvantage every five days or so when it’s Marco Gonzales’s turn to pitch. That’s the case today in Texas as the home team counters with Dane Dunning, who’s not great but a bit more dependable. The Rangers’ offense is highly capable of putting up a lot of runs, and should be able to make it happen off Gonzales. The Mariners will need to keep up, and arguably shouldn’t be favored to do so. The matchup looks like a pick’em at worst.

College football (0-0, $0): South Carolina over 5.5 wins at -150 (Boyd Sports)

$450 to win $300

Some people would refuse to lay this large of a price on any season-long bet. Don’t be one of those people. Value can come in the form of a heavy futures favorite just as commonly as it can through a longshot stab. This line implies only a 60% chance the Gamecocks get to bowl eligibility, and that feels outrageously low. South Carolina did overachieve to get to 6-6 a year ago, so in that sense, the number may seem justified. But that leaves out the massive impact a number of transfers brought in by second-year coach Shane Beamer will have this season, including quarterback Spencer Rattler. The former Oklahoma passer may have had a disappointing career so far, but he’s a lot more capable than the current perception. With Rattler and number of other newcomers, the Gamecocks have a real chance at finishing second in the SEC East behind Georgia. They always have a tough schedule, but 6-6 might be their floor this season.

NFL (0-0, $0): Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins at +140 (Caesars/William Hill)

$200 to win $280

Full disclosure: The Raiders have looked awfully good in training camp. They have a real chance to post a winning record and therefore threaten for a playoff spot for a second straight year, but are they more than 60% likely to do so as this line implies? That seems like a stretch, largely because of the AFC West. The Raiders are still the worst team in the division on paper behind the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos. Most sports books have the prices on over/under 8.5 closer to a pick’em, which would make this a bet to stay away from. But at +140 on the under, a wager is warranted. This bet just missed making a win totals column that will run in next week’s Las Vegas Weekly so it felt like a natural fit to include here.

College football (0-0, $0): Louisville to win the ACC at 40-to-1 (South Point)

$50 to win $2,000

Clemson, behind its suffocating defense, should bounce back and win the ACC this year. But if the Tigers falter again, there are a lot of different teams you could argue are waiting in the wings as the second-best option. I’m not so sure Louisville doesn’t deserve a more prominent spot in the conversation. The Cardinals have an explosive veteran quarterback in Malik Cunningham, an up-and-coming set of skill players and a defense that should be better after gaining experience a year ago. The Atlantic Division, which contains both Clemson and Louisville, is stacked but one of the teams priced ahead of the Cardinals, Wake Forest, got bad news this week that quarterback Sam Hartman would miss the start of the season. It’s hard to find value on Power Five conference futures, but this is one spot where Louisville’s probability of a breakthrough is stronger than the odds imply.      

NFL (0-0, $0): New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South at +360 (Circa Sports)

$300 to win $1,080

Was Tom Brady’s mid-training camp break really planned from the onset as the Buccaneers are selling it? Let’s give them the benefit of the doubt for now, but it’s something worth monitoring as it pertains to the 45-year-old quarterback. He already announced his retirement once this offseason, and it’s possible he came back and then had second thoughts — especially with the rash of offensive line injuries in Tampa Bay. Even in the highly likely event Brady does return and continues to play at a high level, the Saints are still undervalued. New Orleans seems almost sure to field one of the NFL’s best defense, and the offense has high potential too. The Saints have beaten Brady's Buccaneers all four times they've met in the regular season and might be poised to win the division either way. 

Weekend wagers year to date: 59-66-1, $5,682.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 401-396-4, $11,618.93

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,00); Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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